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| TEAMS |
Sydney
B: Ted Richards, Leo Barry, Nick Malceski
HB: Tadhg Kennelly, Craig Bolton, Ben Mathews
C: Amon Buchanan, Brett Kirk, Adam Schneider
HF: Ryan O’Keefe, Michael O’Loughlin, Jude Bolton
F: Jarrad McVeigh, Barry Hall, Luke Ablett
FOLL: Darren Jolly, Adam Goodes, Nic Fosdike
I/C: Peter Everitt, Heath Grundy, Tim Schmidt, Jared Crouch
EMG: Luke Vogels, Jarred Moore, Matthew Laidlaw
In: Crouch
Out: Sean Dempster (knee)
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Adelaide
B: Richard Douglas, Ben Rutten, Nathan Bassett
HB: Andrew McLeod, Scott Stevens, Michael Doughty,
C: Brett Burton, Simon Goodwin, Martin Mattner
HF: Bernie Vince, Nathan Bock, Brent Reilly
F: Jason Porplyzia, Ian Perrie, Scott Welsh
FOLL: Ben Hudson, Tyson Edwards, Scott Thompson
I/C: Jonathon Griffin, Nathan van Berlo, Jason Torney, Chris Knights
EMG: Luke Jericho, John Hinge, Andrew McIntyre
No change
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UMPIRES
Donlon, Rosebury, McInerney
LAST TIME THEY MET
Round 14, 9 Jul 2006
SCG
Adelaide 15.11 101 def Sydney 8.14 (62)
LAST TIME AT THIS VENUE
Round 18, 30 Jul 2005
Adelaide Crows 1.0 3.2 8.4 8.6 54
Sydney Swans 2.1 4.4 5.5 6.11 47
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RECORD
Head to Head: Sydney 9 Adelaide 17
In Adelaide: Sydney 4 Adelaide 8
Coaches: Roos 1 Craig 3
WEATHER FORECAST
Fine. Partly cloudy. Min 13 Max 23
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Setting the Scene
It’s kind of like a curse isn’t it? No other team has proved to be such a bogey team for Paul Roos’ men and Adelaide are the only team the swans have consistently had trouble overcoming. Our last win was Round 15, 2004 at the SCG and we lost by our largest margin of the 2006 season last year (39 points) in round 15, also at home. We’ve just never been able to overcome this consistent and hard-working team. In our only meeting last year they crucified us with their run through the midfield and their efficiency inside their own forward 50. They displayed some of the same characteristics in their last two games, particularly in their win over Port Adelaide last week. They matched Port’s speed through the middle and won all the hard balls, which could have been a close battle except for Adelaide’s effectiveness in marking and converting in their forward line. Marking in the forward line and converting opportunities are both things that the swans have struggled with this season. The depth of the Adelaide outfit will be tested as they have quite an extensive injury list, though last week the run came through their younger players rather than their established stars, as it had the week before in their demolition of the Western Bulldogs. However, in saying all that, when Sydney are firing and working for each other Port Adelaide are no match for them either. When Sydney are playing their best there is no doubt that we can beat any team, as we have been able to prove in the past. We’ve just never managed to produce our best against the Crows. We haven’t hit our best yet but have produced enough flashes of it for 2 comfortable wins and only a small loss (we won’t go there). As Paul Roos said somewhere, we keep trying to find new ways to thwart ourselves but we are still getting the 4 points which is the main thing. When we lose games, it tends to be of our own doing so if we can pull together and play consistently well there is no question that we can match and could even beat the injury depleted Crows outfit.
INJURIES
Sydney | Adelaide |
Paul Bevan (hamstring) - test
Nick Davis (foot) - 2 weeks
Sean Dempster (knee) - 6 weeks
Lewis Roberts-Thomson (foot) - 6 weeks
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Matthew Bode (hip) - test
Bryce Campbell (ankle) - test
Kris Massie (wrist) - test
Robert Shirley (fractured hand) - test
Ben Rutten (calf) - test
David Mackay (hamstring) - 2 weeks
Ivan Maric (hip) - 2 weeks
Darren Pfeiffer (cheekbone) - 2 weeks
Ken McGregor (Achilles) - 3 weeks
Graham Johncock (ankle) - 3-4 weeks
John Meesen (knee) - 5 weeks
Nick Gill (hamstring) - indefinite
Mark Ricciuto (back) - indefinite
Rhett Biglands (knee) - season
Trent Hentschel (knee) - season
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Adelaide’s injury list is by far the longest in the league while Sydney’s is one of the shortest. The loss of Sean Dempster is substantial but we should be easily able to cover for him in a straight swap for the long awaited return of Jared Crouch. Dempster is somewhat underrated but in the last two matches he has picked up some nice touches while keeping dangerous small forward Kane Pettifer and Justin Sherman goal-less. Crouch, though shorter, fills the role of tagger easily when at his peak while providing run from defence and through the midfield. It will be interesting how he performs, as he hasn’t played senior football since Round 12 last year. He has, though, had considerable match practice in the reserves against weaker opposition so should be raring to go. Our only other injuries are Paul Bevan, Nick Davis and Lewis Roberts-Thompson. We have been able to compensate for Roberts-Thompson thus far and Schmidt fills Bevan’s role well so these injuries haven’t affected us too much. It would be very handy to have had Davis back for this match especially as Grundy hasn’t been doing too well. Grundy needs to lift this week to provide us with another attacking option, as Davis would have done. He needs to get in more on-on-one marking contests in space as he has great hands so he will need to do a lot of leading into space this week to even be considered to be kept when Davis recovers.
Adelaide has an extensive injury list and some quality players out for an extended amount of time. Ben Rutten, who would be their likely match-up for Barry Hall hasn’t completed full training this week and is still under an injury cloud. Their ruck department is also severely depleted with the long-term injury to Rhett Biglands so if both Peter Everitt and Darren Jolly can fire as they both have over the last 2 rounds respectively it will go a long way to winning this match. Nathan Bassett will probably take Hall if Rutten doesn’t pull up well and as an All-Australian defender he is still quite qualified.
Key Match-Ups
Ryan O’Keefe/Jared Crouch v Andrew McLeod
Depending on whether Paul Roos wants to shut down the dangerous and in-form Andrew McLeod or play a dangerous forward on him could well turn the game. Jared Crouch is well qualified to tag McLeod and has the speed to match up on him depending on how quickly Crouch adjusts to senior football. Given his experience I don’t think it will take him very long at all and if McLeod begins to have a big impact on the game, Crouch could be just the man to shut him down. Roos could also play O’Keefe on him as he just won’t tire and can also put some goals on the board while making McLeod worry about him rather than setting up their midfield and forward line.
Ben Rutten/Nathan Basset v Barry Hall
Barry Hall is capable of beating anyone, especially if his opponent in Rutten isn’t fully fit. Even if they move Basset on to Hall, if he can dominate we are a good chance in this game. His leading and ability to rid himself of his opponent causes defenders major headaches and if he’s anything like last week he could create kill for the Adelaide defence. Having said that, these two Crows’ defenders are some of the best so whoever wins this battle might well win the game.
Scott Stevens/Nathan Bock v Craig Bolton/Leo Barry
Both of these tall Crows’ defenders have been thrown forward at times in recent weeks to give a target and some height in attack. The Crows have lost many forwards to injury so are looking a little undermanned in their forward line though both these guys have helped considerably to produce winning scores over the last 2 rounds. Craig Bolton and Leo Barry can take either of them but will give away height as usual.
Where we can win it:
This is going to be a tight tussle. If Hall is on fire then we may be able to kick a winning score, same if their forwards are firing. In form Andrew McLeod could also be another telling factor. If Crouch can nullify his effect on the game then we are also one step closer to finally beating the ‘curse’. But, I think that this game will be decided in the ruck. With the addition of Everitt this year and both his and Jolly’s great form in the last few weeks, if they can both perform and work together providing the midfielders with the ball and extra height in both defence and attack they should be able to smash the undermanned Adelaide ruck division. This could well become a battle of the coaches and their attempts to out-coach each other, as they are both very clever and tactical men. The only way we will win is if we can convert our opportunities and kick truly unlike past weeks.
Summary:
This game will be won in the coaches’ box. Adelaide has been hit hard with injury and while the swans have a few concerns, we can pretty much cover them well. The have an underrated forward line but also a very accurate one so the swans will need to control their forwards and make sure to use the ball quickly in the rebound from defence when they do miss. Everitt and Jolly can no doubt and should comprehensively beat the young and inexperienced Crows ruckmen and this could provide the swans with the winning edge. It is, however, what happens when the ball is tapped down that will be telling. If swans can get first use of the ball and hit targets in the forward line then this will provide us with a fighting chance provided we use the ball well and convert goal-scoring opportunities. We have plenty of options in attack with Hall, O’Loughlin, O’Keefe, Grundy and the smaller crumbers. If Grundy can find his niche he will be a very handy extra option but he will have to lift substantially on his previous few games. This will be a tight, tough, tussle and could be won by just one individual. If both teams are on then there is nothing to separate them and whichever team gets the edge in one area or a bit of momentum then chances are the game will go their way.
Prediction: I believe, Swans by 12 points.
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