An Optomistic Analysis

[Nico]

Yes the doomsayers have written us off for 2006 saying our time had come and the timing was right.

Maybe the reason we won the flag was because we were able to improve that indeterminable % over 2004 that took above all others.

When I had a good look at our list I came up with some genuine optimism that we can improve some more, particularly if we can find a killer instinct to really put teams away.

So here are my thoughts purely on the list and hope that injuries do not play a major part. Age is next season.

Ablett 23y.o - just starting to show his worth. Played finals with a knee so can be excused. Expect more improvement.
Barry 28 - At his peak, no reason why he cant stay there for another 2 years.
Bevan 21 - age is on his side but really needs to improve his skills massively. No gimmee for a spot.
Craig Bolton 25 - is he only that old. At his peak and should be good for a few more years.
Jude Bolton 26 - Was not my favourite at the start of 2005 but boy has he gone to the next level. I reckon he has still got improvement.
Buchanan 23 - What a find, would hope there is still more improvement. Provides another dimension to the team.
Crouch 28 - At his peak and even though the way he plays would make you think he must hit the wall soon, he just keeps on keeping on. Another few good years in him yet.
NicK Davis 25 - He may not have peaked yet. Oozes quality.
Dempster 22 - A future top player with heaps of improvement to come.
Doyle 24 - only 24. If he stays we can only hope that the talent we see finally gets on the field for a full season.
Fosdike 26 - Has resurrected himself. MCG specialist. Massive improvement in the second half. Injury free he has just bolstered the midfield unbelievably. Could it be the penny has dropped with him and he is now realising his potential.
Goodes 26 - Is there a better utility in the game? 2006 might just be a blinder for him. Years left in him. And to think the knockers jumped off him when he a bad knee.
Hall 29 - At least 3 good years at the top for Bazza.
Jolly 24 - A ruckman who has only played 70 odd games with immense talent. Sky is the limit for him.
Kennelly 24 - And they say he is nowhere near his potential. What will he do when he learns the game.
Kirk 29 - No need to say anything. 3 more years from the warrior will do.
Malceski 21 - If what we already know of him he could be a future leader. cant wait for him to get extended ground time.
Mathews 27 - Will be around for a few more years. Was the worst of taggers a couple of years ago, but could not fault his finals campaign.
McVeigh 20 - Still very young. Lets hope he can go the next step. Potential is there.
Moore 20 - I expect him to be a gun midfielder.
O'Keefe 25 - Still has improvement. Consistency will see him reach his peak output.
MOL 29 - Lets hope an injury free 2 years will see him stay the dangerous forward he is. A star.
LRT 22 - Excuse me but is this bloke looking like a superstar or what. This guy has got so much development in him. Remember a young Jonathan Brown had 3 flags under his belt. Is he our Jonathon Brown.
Schneider 21 - Showed just what he can do. I have already eaten Schneids humble pie. He can improve heaps if he wants to. Strewth is he only 21.
Willo 32 - One more good year will suffice mate. 2 flags ought to be enough for you.

Matt Davis?
Ben Fixter?
Heath James?
Stuart Maxfield?
Mark Powell?
Saddo?
Schmidt 20 - some say he can play but is a tad slow. Probably potential there.
Spriggs 25 - No
Sundqvist 23 - been around for years. Has talent but .....
Willoughby 20 - We know he is good but is he a realistic chance of promotion to the A team. Another high draft pick who will come good?
Grundy 19 - I believe he will be promoted to the list and will develop into a quality player. Heard good reports about him.
Vogels 22 - has shown us plenty and will improve heaps.
Shaw 19 - I reckon he will be promoted and you dont let young rucks who have shown you something.
Erickson 20 - Ditto.

So the gist of all this is that we are still a young side with only one over 30 next year. Plenty of young talent will be pushing for selection and a lot of players have either just peaked, will peak next year, are playing at their optimum or are playing one's and still have improvement.

Optimistic maybe but you would have to be disappointed if that list dropped off the pace.

[BonBon]

Originally posted by Nico
O'Keefe 25 - Still has improvement. Consistency will see him reach his peak output.
He is 24.

[Nico]

Originally posted by BonBon
He is 24.

Ages as per next year.

[punter257]

******** not a bad analysis there
we're still pretty young and i reckon its great that guys like c bolts , goodes, j bolton, kennelly and davis are only 24-26

plus we have lots of youth coming through and i'm looking forward to moore, malceski and mcveigh making a name for themselves in the next few years

definitely plenty of optimism but hall, micky o, leo and kirky are just that little bit older and injuries to them would hurt us in a big way

[BayesysLeftBoot]

Nice summary, I reckon the improvement left in our youngsters outweighs any decline we can expect from our veterans.

[originalswan]

We're always underestimated even with top 3 in 2003, top 5 in 2004 and Premiership in 2005. That's how we like it!!! Also helps me win some money on the team like this year - pretty good odds 35 to 1.

[liz]

The reason for the sustained success over the past three years - and yes it has been sustained success, despite disappointing finishes in 2003 and 2004 - is that the players who have taken a step up each year have generally been able to maintain it.

In 2003 we saw significant improvement from Barry, Hall, Jude, Goodes and Kirk at the top end, plus natural development from Kennelly and the better-than-expected injection of B2. These were probably the key factors why the team performed so much better than expected.

Since then, Hall, Barry and Kirk have, if anything, got even better. Jude dropped off a bit last year but returned to better than 2003 form in the first half of this year before injuries took their toll. B2 showed that his first year at the club wasn't just a Cummings / Murphy act - ie that he really can play. And Kennelly seems to still not have reached a plateau.

Goodes is probably the only one of that group that hasn't yet quite recaptured his 2003 form, at least on a consistent basis.

Last year O'Keefe was the big bolter. And while he was a bit quiet for the first half of this year, the second half of the season proved that he 2004 wasn't just a flash in the pan.

So the keys for 2006 are for Monty to at least stay at his 2005 level, and for Nog and LRT to get even better. Improvement from the Schneiderman would be fantastic, but I don't think it is a pre-requisite.

History says that we will get a couple of reserves players inject themselves - all clubs experience that, whether they are premiers or cellar-dwellars - and it probably doesn't matter much whether it comes from Malceski, McVeigh, Schmidt or someone else. It will be important for the ongoing development of the squad, but these players are unlikely to be the difference between back-to-back (how good does that sound?!!) and missing out.

The main vulnerability is the ruck, and whether an import or Shaw / Erickson / Goodes can come close to making up for the loss of Ball. He has been huge for us this year and his retirement will leave a huge gap.

[Plugger46]

Think you might have a little too much time on your hands Nico.