The odds

[Go Swannies]

Because I thought the Swans were a better team than the critics had them, I decided to put some money on them for a second flag. But I didn't know premiership betting was on hold during weekends I didn't get the bet on at 21:1. Over Easter I tried again on Monday but it was on hold from Thursday until Tuesday so I couldn't get on at 17:1 (after the Blues win).

This week I remembered to try early and just got back from the TAB. Even in NSW the odds for the flag being won by the Swans is 26:1. So my $30 could be worth $780 in late September.

Right now I know that is looking unlikely. But I still think we are a better chance than Freo or even Port at 23 and the Hawks on 28. Those ahead of us are the Cats on 6, Adelaide on 5.5, The Pies on 10 (!), Saints on 6, Weagles on 4 and Dogs on 9.

I wonder what will happen to our odds if we beat the Cats? I know the principles of betting but you'd have to give us a better chance of doing well in the finals if we get there than the completely untested teams like the Dogs. If I'm wrong I'm down $30. If I'm right I can pay off my Grand Final ticket and my ticket to the Premiership dinner - and what a ripper last's years event turned out to be.

What do you think? Swans at 26 a good bet or not?

[ROK Lobster]

Well you know how the song goes GS, "what though the odds..."

[NMWBloods]

It's funny that on the way home I was thinking that I have no confidence in us beating any side at all this year yet I believe we can beat any side.

I think it highly unlikely we will win the flag this year, which given the evenness (read = very average) of the competition means a wasted opportunity.

But, at the same time, give two of the above factors (ability to beat any side and evenness) I think your $26 is pretty good value.

[Bas]

I could think of worst ways of spending $30.

At the snack bars at the SCG for example.

[dimelb]

A full strength Pies are worth lower odds than 10. I predict top 4.