Can we finish 2nd or 3rd?

[Cheer Squad]

We're two-and-a-half games off third spot, and 3 games off second. There are 6 games to go.

Our remaining games:

Adelaide (SCG)
Bulldogs (Manuka)
Fremantle (SCG)
Geelong (ANZ)
Collingwood (Dome)
Brisbane (SCG)

We could reasonably expect to win at least 3 of these games - Adelaide, Fremantle and Brisbane.

Neither Hawthorn or the Bulldogs looked particularly convincing this weekend, so maybe we can win against the Bulldogs at Manuka.

Geelong - tough ask, should be a huge game. Collingwood - they have our measure, but don't have a good recent record at the Dome.

Hawthorn's remaining games:

Geelong (MCG)
Collingwood (MCG)
Brisbane (Aurora)
Richmond (MCG)
West Coast (Subiaco)
Carlton (Dome)

The Bulldog's remaining games:

Carlton (Dome)
Sydney (Manuka)
North (Dome)
Brisbane (Gabba)
Essendon (Dome)
Adelaide (AAMI)

Given the draw for each team, do we have a reasonable chance at finishing 2nd or 3rd?

[ScottH]

No.

[reigning premier]

No.

Gold...

And spot on.

No.

[hammo]

I'd be more concerned about us hanging onto fourth.

[swansrule100]

a 2 point win against 10th or whatever they are, it was a good hard fought out win with a bit of a comeback, but nothing much has changed between this week and last.

if we beat the dogs in 2 weeks then we can start worrying about top 3 or whatever perhaps.

[DST]

We will need four wins just to guarantee fourth spot.

Adelaide, Fremantle, Brisbane should go along way to getting us the wins, meaning we will need a win against the Dogs, Pies or Geelong.

I actually fancy our chances against Geelong, should they have not dropped another one by then. We have a history of knocking off the contender late in seasons at home.

Win the four and we will finish fourth and play Geelong at the Dome first up.

DST

[swansrule100]

i will be at the cats game with a mad geelong supporter so i hope we win. But nothing so far has given me any hope.

Geelong are the best side i have seen play ever. Thats only since about 1986 though.

[reigning premier]

Geelong are the best side i have seen play ever. Thats only since about 1986 though.

:rolleyes:

Typical Sydney band wagoner... what would you know????















;) :p

[dendol]

no. But 4th is ours if we really want it.

having seen what geelong did to the 2nd best team in the comp this weekend and going on our own current form, can anyone really see us winning at ANZ in a few weeks time? Jumping the gun a bit, but I hope we put up a really good fight because if we can nail down 4th, we'll be facing them again 1st week of september. I'd like to go into that game with at least a tiny bit of hope...

The last 3 games of the season will tell us how we'll go in the finals.. win 2 of 3 and I can see at least a prelim :)

[swansrule100]

:D i was only 3 then, before that i think i had a carlton top forced on me :frown

[ROK Lobster]

No.

What he said.

[573v30]

It's highly unlikely.

[Robbo]

I want Geelong to finish 2nd.

If they finish on top then we will have to play them in the first week of the finals, assuming we finish 4th. We would have a much better chance of beating the Hawks or Bulldogs.

[reigning premier]

Can some one dig up the thread from last year at about this time where we started talking about top two???? :rolleyes:

Don't know what's sadder. The thread itself or the fact that I remember it.:o

[Thunder Shaker]

We will need four wins just to guarantee fourth spot.

Adelaide, Fremantle, Brisbane should go along way to getting us the wins, meaning we will need a win against the Dogs, Pies or Geelong.
If we can knock off the Pies that will be the clincher.

And it's a pretty big IF.

[hot potato]

Did anyone think Greg Norman would be teeing off in an hour an a half two shots clear after his last victory in a major was 15 years ago.
With sport you just never know.
Roosey ramps em up for the run home. Go Swans.:)

[barry]

We will need four wins just to guarantee fourth spot.

Adelaide, Fremantle, Brisbane should go along way to getting us the wins, meaning we will need a win against the Dogs, Pies or Geelong.



What pessimistic dribble. 3 wins will 99% get us 4th spot. The only way it wont is if one of the 5-8th teams WINS EVERY SINGLE GAME. Very, very unlikely.

[SCGonasunnyday]

is that true? Won't 5 out of 6 get a team like St Kilda or Collingwood (who both have pretty easy runs home) above us if we win 3 only?

[Robbo]

Adelaide are a bogey side and they will be playing for their season almost.

[Bas]

I'd be more concerned about us hanging onto fourth.


My concerns as well.

[ShockOfHair]

The Swans haven't beaten any top four side in the last two years - I don't see why they would start now.

On current form we'll be lucky to win more than two games out of the last six.

[DeadlyAkkuret]

The Swans haven't beaten any top four side in the last two years - I don't see why they would start now.

On current form we'll be lucky to win more than two games out of the last six.

You don't think we'll atleast account for Adelaide, Brisbane and Fremantle?

[voodooguru]

It all depends on the Large Professor. He kicked 5-5 not that long ago. His triumphal return will open up the game for O'Keefe, Goodes, Micky and Jumbucks; and straighten us up in general. Crumb City.

Preseason, my barometer for how high we could fly came down to whether we got the same Hally we had last year, when he led the competition in spilled marks? Or the one who can kick 5 goals, set up 2 or 3 others, take 6-7 marks one kick away from inside 50 and 12 marks in total.

Add that to what we have now and only The Shadow knows. He was playing well before that air guitar brainfade. 5-5.

I say off the couch, out of the box and back for the (Crow)Bots.

[ShockOfHair]

We haven't beaten Adelaide since - 2004? - and Brisbane are running pretty hot, so I wouldn't assume them as wins.

The Bulldogs at Manuka seem the most vulnerable of the other three.

[goswannie14]

No.

[snajik]

We haven't beaten Adelaide since - 2004? - and Brisbane are running pretty hot, so I wouldn't assume them as wins.



Not sure which Brisbane you've been watching. Surely not the Brisbane that was recently defeated by both Essendon and Melbourne? Your second point contradicts your first; Brisbane haven't beaten us for a similar period of time.

Anyway, it's all academic. Seems that there are 15 teams on a hiding to nothing.

[gossipcom]

Bringing this thread back up to the forefront...

Containing spoilers from tonight's match (so the rest of this post will be in white for spoilers - highlight to read).

But due to Hawks losing, if we beat the Crows tomorrow night we'll only be 6 points behind 3rd spot.

[573v30]

Still a 6 point gap between us and Hawthorn if we beat the Crows...

[Claret]

No.

And frankly, I'd rather finish 4th anyway.

P.S. Nice idea there Gossipcom, shame it was only good for 6 minutes:rolleyes:

[gossipcom]

Oh well it was worth a shot since the other states haven't gotten the coverage yet. :)

It's funny when you look at it actually. Because right now Hawks are the ones that are in doubt but you look at the matches we've got coming up and we still need to make sure we get that double chance since it's not secured yet.

[Claret]

Oh well it was worth a shot since the other states haven't gotten the coverage yet. :)

I'm watching the start of the 4th quarter now . . . and the Hawks are in front!


It's funny when you look at it actually. Because right now Hawks are the ones that are in doubt but you look at the matches we've got coming up and we still need to make sure we get that double chance since it's not secured yet.

Especially since St Kilda in particular have a very easy draw.

[swantastic]

Not a chance in hell.

[BloodsInMyVeins]

Yes we can go 2nd or 3rd!!!(idea)

Only if the 2 teams ahead of us FORFEIT the last 6 matches(clap) (clap) (clap)

[Triple B]

Not really sure 2nd or 3rd is a huge advantage.

Finish 4th, travel to Melb and on a good night maybe upset the Cats, but realistically back to Sydney, hopefully win and then take on Hawks or Bullies in the PF.

Finish 2nd or 3rd, win and it's all good. Lose however and it's back to Sydney and back down to Melb to take on probably Geelong in the PF.

As disappointing as losing a GF is, I'd prefer it to losing a PF.

Bottom line: Finishing 4th is MUCH more of a priority then worrying about 2nd or 3rd.

[TheMase]

Bottom line: Finishing 4th is MUCH more of a priority then worrying about 2nd or 3rd.

Absolutely agree. We get first crack at Geelong, if that fails I am much more confident in beating the Dogs or Hawks in a PF than Geelong.

[Cheer Squad]

In this week's edition, the team at Inside Football predict we won't even get 4th spot.

They reckon either Collingwood or St. Kilda will win 5 out of their last 6 and finish on 56 points, and 4th spot will be probably decided when they play each other in Round 19. We're good for 3 wins, against Adelaide, Fremantle and Brisbane at the SCG, and have no chance against the Bulldogs at Manuka, Geelong at ANZ, or Collingwood at the Dome, meaning we finish on 54 points, probably 5th or 6th. I hope we prove them wrong. :p

Looks like I'm barracking for the Bombers and the Eagles today :eek: :D

[goswannie14]

In this week's edition, the team at Inside Football predict we won't even get 4th spot.

They reckon either Collingwood or St. Kilda will win 5 out of their last 6 and finish on 56 points, and 4th spot will be probably decided when they play each other in Round 19. We're good for 3 wins, against Adelaide, Fremantle and Brisbane at the SCG, and have no chance against the Bulldogs at Manuka, Geelong at ANZ, or Collingwood at the Dome, meaning we finish on 54 points, probably 5th or 6th. I hope we prove them wrong. :p

Looks like I'm barracking for the Bombers and the Eagles today :eek: :DThat means Collingwood now has to win every game before the finals. Can't see that happening.

[NMWBloods]

I think we have 4th just about wrapped up unless we suffer a catastrophic slump in form.
Can't see us grabbing third unless the 'Dogs or Hawks collapse. We'll see how the former come back from their Geelong smashing tomorrow against Carlton. If they struggle and lose perhaps third might be a chance.
Fourth is probably good as I'd rather play Geelong early and then if we lose we our prelim would be against Hawthorn or the Bulldogs, hence more chance of a GF appearance.

[robbieando]

That means Collingwood now has to win every game before the finals. Can't see that happening.

Ditto St Kilda. Now we know that isn't going to happen.....

[satchmopugdog]

I don't think so after that first quarter

[ScottH]

I don't think so after that first quarter

or the other 3.

[Robbo]

We blew an absoluely massive chance to put some daylight between us and 5th tonight.

[alison.z]

I think this thread should be re-named to "can we finish in the 8?"

maybe exaggerating a little with the other losses tonight but from what i saw from the swans i can't see them winning much at all. Yes we should beat freo and brisbane but we've shown just how badly we play against teams we should beat and there's no chance of winning against the bulldogs, collingwood or geelong.

we haven't played well for weeks now and unless we pick it up soon the season will be over first week of the finals at best!!

[cruiser]

We are nothing more than top 4 pretenders and I'm biting my tongue (my typing finger) to stop myself from replacing the 4 with an 8.

[sprite]

NO - will be around 6-7 and out first week.

[giant]

With current personnel, we don't look likely to win more than 2 more games (Freo, Lions) which will give us 12.5 wins and we scrape into the 8. Lose the Lions game and we'll be lucky to be 9th.

This season could come to a screaming halt at any moment...

[Snake]

This season could come to a screaming halt at any moment...

It already has, in the last 4 weeks, 1 win 3 losses. WE ARE GONE!