Three more wins for 4th

[barry]

I know there has been much gnashing of teeth, and harsh words spoken, but the reality is, that because of our good work earlier in the year, we have a 95% chance of wrapping up 4th spot by winning only 3 more games for the year.
(Other sides below us would need to win all remaining games to overhaul us as we are essentially 2 games clear, which is unlikely as most are sitting around the 60% win ratio).

Our remaining games:

Bulldogs (Manuka)
Fremantle (SCG)
Geelong (ANZ)
Collingwood (Dome)
Brisbane (SCG)

Freo and Brisbane at the SCG plus one more will be enough. A win next week against the flagging dogs would cement us in.

So, the priority has to be getting our stars fit and ready for finals. Let the remaining rounds play themselves out, but make sure all injured players are rested appropriately. We'd want to have our full strength team in for round 22 v Lions to sew up 4th spot, and give us some form running into the finals.

If we beat the dogs, the games vs Geelong and Collingwood, we can essentially "throw". By that I mean, dont risk playing any stars that have niggles. If the young kids fluke a win, thats great, but no loss if we loose.

[barry]

I've kind of screwed up this thread a bit.

My premise is:
3 wins would give us around 95% chance of finishing 4th. Need a team below us to win all 5 remaining games to dislodge us.

2 wins would give us around 70% chance of finishing 4th. Team below us would need to win 4 from 5 to dislodge us.

Winning 4 from 5 might seem possible, but when you look at the form of those below us, its quite unlikely.

[hammo]

If we continue to play like we have in the past month then we could forseeably lose all 5 games.

[NMWBloods]

I still think we have a decent chance of winning four of those. However, having said that, Goodes' fitness is a wildcard and we may struggle without him.

The losses to Collingwood and Hawthorn in the past month were not surprising, neither was the close game against Carlton. However, we were lucky against Carlton as they wasted chances in the first quarter to put us away and we were surprisingly crap against Adelaide. Our form can chop and change though.

I had a feeling that the Bulldogs may struggle after last week's smashing and so I think they are still vulnerable.
Collingwood is also vulnerable at TD, as I noted a month or so ago.

All five games will be difficult though.

[ROK Lobster]

We are likely to beat Geelong, lose to Freo, draw with someone, win one in a thrilling comeback and forget to turn up for the fifth of those matches. Who knows with this mob how they will go one week to the next. Basically, as i see it, they have a month or so to get Goodes fit, get Hall into form and start playing good football again or it wont matter much where we finish.

[Plugger46]

I'm confident we'll get the Pies this time. I have no idea why, just have a feeling.

Geelong will probably handle us, but I think we'll be competitive.

Dogs are vulnerable.

Dockers and Lions are games that we should win at home.

We always struggle against the Crows, and with most of the other sides losing over the weekend, we're still well placed.

[sharp9]

Not quite sure I follow you there....If we win 4 out of five we DEFINITELY finish 4th.

If we win 3 out of 5 we would be 50/50 to finish 4th, that would mean that ALL of North Melbourne, Adelaide, Collingwood, Lions and St. Kilda have to lose at least one game. You would hope that this would be the case.

To finish 4th winning only 2 out of five is unbelievably unlikely, almost mathematically inpossible. It would mean finishing 4th with 12 and a half wins!!! It would mean NOT ONE of North Melbourne, Adelaide, Collingwood, Lions or St. Kilda finishing 4 out of 5. Someone ALWAYS finishes 4 out of 5 (or 5 out of 6 - Adelaide).

If, as you suggest, we can win 2 out of 5 and Lose to Collingwood...then you are assuming that Collingwood will lose 2 of its other 4 matches. There is no reason to assume this, let alone suggest it is "95% likely."

Having said that 3 victories over Collingwood, Brisbane and Fremantle should be enough, that would require Saints, Adelaide or North to win 5 out of 5. You would hope that wouldn't happen.

Sydney....Bulldogs (H), Freo (H), Geelong (H), Collingwood (A), Brisbane (H)
Adelaide....Carlton (H), Richmond (H), Essendon (A), Saints (A) Bulldogs (H)
North....Brisbane (A), Bulldogs (H), Carlton (H), Geelong (A) Port (H)
Brisbane....North (H), Hawthorn (A), Bulldogs (H), Carlton (H), Sydney (A)
Collingwood....Hawthorn (H), Saints (H), Port (A), Sydney (H), Freo (A)
Saints....Port (H), Collingwood (H), Freo (A), Adelaide (H), Essendon (H)

IMHO the equation is simple, we need to play much better than we currently are to stay in 4th. If we play as we have done for the last 4 weeks we will win only 1 or 0 games. If we play to our ability we will win 3 or 4 which should be enough.

[Captain]

I agree that we can win 4 of the next 5 games. The Dogs game without a lot of personnel will be crucial. Win that and we are set.

For some reason as well, I think we can knock off the Pies.

[hot potato]

If the playing group is given the freedom from the coaching staff and told 'Go coach yourselves' I think they might play some daring footy and win a couple ore games.

[sprite]

Realistically looking 6th or 7th - out first week of finals.

[goswannie14]

In reality we can afford to drop one more game than any of the chasing mob and still finish 4th. If that were to happen North would finish on the same amount of points, but we have a superior percentage (22% better, which is as good a s a game in hand).

[ScottH]

If we continue to play like we have in the past month then we could forseeably lose all 5 games.That's not such an unlikely scenario. :frown


We are likely to beat Geelong, lose to Freo, draw with someone, win one in a thrilling comeback and forget to turn up for the fifth of those matches. Who knows with this mob how they will go one week to the next. Basically, as i see it, they have a month or so to get Goodes fit, get Hall into form and start playing good football again or it wont matter much where we finish.

We used to start slow and finish in a flurry. :confused:

[Lucky Knickers]

Crows look to have a reasonable run home and the type of 'choke the life out of them' game plan to win all 5.

CMON THE BLOODS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[AnnieH]

If we continue to play like we have in the past month then we could forseeably lose all 5 games.

... and finish 11th.

[barry]

Not quite sure I follow you there....If we win 4 out of five we DEFINITELY finish 4th.

If we win 3 out of 5 we would be 50/50 to finish 4th, that would mean that ALL of North Melbourne, Adelaide, Collingwood, Lions and St. Kilda have to lose at least one game. You would hope that this would be the case.

To finish 4th winning only 2 out of five is unbelievably unlikely, almost mathematically inpossible. It would mean finishing 4th with 12 and a half wins!!! It would mean NOT ONE of North Melbourne, Adelaide, Collingwood, Lions or St. Kilda finishing 4 out of 5. Someone ALWAYS finishes 4 out of 5 (or 5 out of 6 - Adelaide).

If, as you suggest, we can win 2 out of 5 and Lose to Collingwood...then you are assuming that Collingwood will lose 2 of its other 4 matches. There is no reason to assume this, let alone suggest it is "95% likely."

Having said that 3 victories over Collingwood, Brisbane and Fremantle should be enough, that would require Saints, Adelaide or North to win 5 out of 5. You would hope that wouldn't happen.

Sydney....Bulldogs (H), Freo (H), Geelong (H), Collingwood (A), Brisbane (H)
Adelaide....Carlton (H), Richmond (H), Essendon (A), Saints (A) Bulldogs (H)
North....Brisbane (A), Bulldogs (H), Carlton (H), Geelong (A) Port (H)
Brisbane....North (H), Hawthorn (A), Bulldogs (H), Carlton (H), Sydney (A)
Collingwood....Hawthorn (H), Saints (H), Port (A), Sydney (H), Freo (A)
Saints....Port (H), Collingwood (H), Freo (A), Adelaide (H), Essendon (H)

IMHO the equation is simple, we need to play much better than we currently are to stay in 4th. If we play as we have done for the last 4 weeks we will win only 1 or 0 games. If we play to our ability we will win 3 or 4 which should be enough.

I dont think you quite grasp the statistics.

But I'm more than happy to enter a bet with you:
$50 50:50.
You win if any of Adel, North, Brisb, Pies, Saints win all 5 remaining games,
Any dont, I win.

Ok ?

[chalbilto]

If we continue to play like we have in the past month then we could forseeably lose all 5 games.

After watching the effort last Saturday I had the same thoughts.:(

[SimonH]

The way other teams are falling around like nine-pins (and we are as well), two scenarios are distinct possibilities:
a) the Swans become the worst-performed team in the history of the final 8, to grab 4th spot
b) an unbelievably unlikely, didn't-even-think-they-would-make-the-8 team like the Roos could snatch 4th spot.

If the 2nd of these possibilities occurs, I'm putting the house on Geelong 91+ at the TAB for the first week of the finals. Probably pay about $1.10.

A less likely, but more exciting, possibility is that if we beat the Dogs this weekend, we then have 2 matches to make up on them to grab 3rd. (If we draw with them on comp points, then beating their %age will safely look after itself.) Their last 4 are North Melbourne, Blions at the Gabba, Dons and Adelaide in Adelaide.

As others have commented, we can win 3 of our last 4. And on what will be their current form if we beat them, the Dogs could easily lose 3 of their last 4.

The prize? A first-week encounter vs Hawthorn as against Geelong. Regardless of our recent loss to them, I would be licking my lips.

[SimonH]

Here (http://www.realfooty.com.au/news/news/sabotage-saturday/2008/07/27/1217097059827.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1) is an article on this weekend's amazing series of poor results for top 8 sides and top 4 wannabes.

Although, for an article about poor performance, it's not a very good article. Two clangers stick out.


The race for fourth spot is starting to echo Steven Bradbury's famous Winter Olympics gold medal, a last-man-standing affair. With one important difference. Bradbury had no one left in front him at the finish line. Whoever grabs the prized spot in this contest will still have three other runners miles in the distance, all of whom, in contrast, know how to take their chances.
...
Is anyone in the long queue forming for fourth good enough to take it up to the top three anyway? "Probably not at the moment," [Jonathan] Brown shrugged. Probably not in five weeks, either.Leaving aside the Hawks' wobbly form, a Bulldogs side that has lost 2 in a row including falling to Carlton by 5 goals after being 6 goals up, 'knows how to take its chances' and no side competing for 4th is good enough to take it up to them? Ahem. It's rather like the article was filed at half-time of the twilight game.


What the Roos don't have, significantly, is percentage, the only team in the top eight below 100, and a whopping 22 percentage points behind Sydney. That's as good as a couple more games.I have no idea what the last sentence is meant to mean. Percentage can never be worth more than one game (or, technically, half-a-game). And as Connolly tacitly acknowledges later in the para by referring to a "half-game break", the Roos' percentage is irrelevant in comparison with anyone except Sydney and Richmond (the latter of whom they have a better percentage than). Unless one of the other contenders has a draw between here and the end of the year.

[mcs]

I got a feeling we will beat the dogs down here in Canberra on Sunday. We play very well down here usually and have not lost down here in a home and away game for at least a couple of years.

3 wins I reckon will be enough. For when you look at all those teams in contention for 4th, the only team I reckon could win all 5 is Adelaide or possibly Collingwood. On recent form though my thoughts are:

Adelaide: Should beat Richmond at home, Bombers Away and have close matches against Carlton, Dogs and Saints. I would think they will drop at least 1 game there. So say 4 wins there.
Brisbane: All 5 games are tough for them. I reckon they will beat North and Carlton and the other 3 will be close. Id say they will win 4 at most, probably 3.
North: I think they will beat Port, Lose to Geelong, with close games against Brisbane (I said above theyll lose that) the Dogs and Carlton. So 3-4 wins there
Collingwood: Could win all 5, lose all 5 who knows? They are almost as jekyll and hyde as we have been recently. I reckon they will beat us and the Saints, Lose to Hawthorn and should beat Port and Freo but might drop one of them (Two road trips in 5 weeks for The magpies whats going on!) My tip is 4 wins.
Saints should beat the Bombers and Port, tough games against Adelaide and Collingwood and who knows against Freo after this weekends effort at Subiaco. My tip is 4 wins.

So going on that we need 3 wins. Freo at Home is a must, so is Brisbane, Dogs this weekend is critical. Win that and we probably can afford to drop the games to Geelong and Collingwood, lose this weekend and we probably have to win 1 of those two.

So yeh, imo 3 wins will probably be enough for us to sneak into the 4. From there anything can happen, but with the way our injuries are mounting and the severe lack of form for some of our most important players, an early exit in September currently looks likely. We look tired and struggling, but a week is a long time in footy let alone several weeks. We still have the potential for one last real crack in September, but unless our injury crisis subsides and we find a rich vein of form it is hard to see.

But who knows! we possibly only have to win 6 games from here to win the flag :D At least we are in the mix again- nothing worse imo then getting to this time of the season and being already well and truly out of it and only having next season to look forward to.

[connolly]

I got a feeling we will beat the dogs down here in Canberra on Sunday. We play very well down here usually and have not lost down here in a home and away game for at least a couple of years.

3 wins I reckon will be enough. For when you look at all those teams in contention for 4th, the only team I reckon could win all 5 is Adelaide or possibly Collingwood. On recent form though my thoughts are:

Adelaide: Should beat Richmond at home, Bombers Away and have close matches against Carlton, Dogs and Saints. I would think they will drop at least 1 game there. So say 4 wins there.
Brisbane: All 5 games are tough for them. I reckon they will beat North and Carlton and the other 3 will be close. Id say they will win 4 at most, probably 3.
North: I think they will beat Port, Lose to Geelong, with close games against Brisbane (I said above theyll lose that) the Dogs and Carlton. So 3-4 wins there
Collingwood: Could win all 5, lose all 5 who knows? They are almost as jekyll and hyde as we have been recently. I reckon they will beat us and the Saints, Lose to Hawthorn and should beat Port and Freo but might drop one of them (Two road trips in 5 weeks for The magpies whats going on!) My tip is 4 wins.
Saints should beat the Bombers and Port, tough games against Adelaide and Collingwood and who knows against Freo after this weekends effort at Subiaco. My tip is 4 wins.

So going on that we need 3 wins. Freo at Home is a must, so is Brisbane, Dogs this weekend is critical. Win that and we probably can afford to drop the games to Geelong and Collingwood, lose this weekend and we probably have to win 1 of those two.

So yeh, imo 3 wins will probably be enough for us to sneak into the 4. From there anything can happen, but with the way our injuries are mounting and the severe lack of form for some of our most important players, an early exit in September currently looks likely. We look tired and struggling, but a week is a long time in footy let alone several weeks. We still have the potential for one last real crack in September, but unless our injury crisis subsides and we find a rich vein of form it is hard to see.

But who knows! we possibly only have to win 6 games from here to win the flag :D At least we are in the mix again- nothing worse imo then getting to this time of the season and being already well and truly out of it and only having next season to look forward to.

What this means is that we have to become supporters of the Tankers. They are in good form and with a strong midfield and Fev playing for a contract (with someone) they are a real threat to the teams below us and could cause the necessary defeats required to keep them below us. Desperate times.

[Darren Thomson]

Yes three more wins may well sew up fourth spot, the worry is can we win three with the current injury list and Barrry Hall down on confidence? At the Adelaide game I have never seen so many kicks hit the post and have never seen our blokes pushed out wide so often for shots at goal. Our defence lacked a little organisation without Leo, The midfield did their usual job, although I thought McVeigh was down a bit, and the forward line did not function period. Play some young blokes if necessary, but lets get some pace running the lines and play direct and fast.

Does anyone know what has hapened to Nic Fosdike? One of our elite running midfielders would come in handy about now

DT

[giant]

Right now three wins looks a long way away. Especially the third win...

[Bas]

Realistically looking 6th or 7th - out first week of finals.

My thoughts exactly. Another successful year!

[hot potato]

I can't figure how enough goals are going to be scored to win any more games with no MOL. Rok's set shots are not much chop. Bazza will be out of form for more games because he's not had match practice.
There are few specialist goalkickers left.
I notice LRT has learnt to kick quite a good drop punt now. He's the one.
:)
Save us from a free fall hyphen, you are THE MAN.

[goswannie14]

My thoughts exactly. Another successful year!Isn't it funny how times change? A few years ago that would have been a successful year.

[bigswan]

Three wins will secure us fourth place. Two wins will mean we are 5th, 6th or even 7th. One win will mean big trouble. We should beat Freo and Brisbane. Somehow we have to beat the Dogs or Collingwood. It is going to be tough but any game is winnable.

[annew]

Isn't it funny how times change? A few years ago that would have been a successful year.

Surely winning a GF, being runners up in the next GF, then finishing 7th and at Round 17 the next year still contenders for a top 4 berth is a successful era. How times have changed. Seems that unless you do what the Lions did you are deemed unsuccessful. I would bet there are many teams this year that would like to be 4th after Round 17 and only 2 years after playing in a GF.

[chevyaj]

Three wins will secure us fourth place. Two wins will mean we are 5th, 6th or even 7th. One win will mean big trouble. We should beat Freo and Brisbane. Somehow we have to beat the Dogs or Collingwood. It is going to be tough but any game is winnable.


ur right but listen, the sydney swans game vs geelong will be crucial, possibly the most winnable, hopefully goodes is back, malceski firing, barry in the reserves,hall in form and o loughlin in, we should win at LEAST 3......

but iv nick davis comes miraculously back we will win 5!!!!!!

but it all starts on sunnday against the dogs and hall will b firing, or else he ll go at the end of the year.:)

[msb]

Do we really want to finish 4th?? I dont think so by the way swans played the other night. Geelong has got the flag now, no one wants to lose to them in the GF :rolleyes: , hence last weeks round with nearly all top 8 teams losing

[givekidsakick]

you are all bloody dreaming......we are going to get smashed and be lucky to stay in the eight....and who really cares....the bottom line is that we are not good enough to win a GF LET ALONE even get there.

[CJK]

So we should just stop watching the football for the rest of the year? Let the Swans say they're not good enough and they can all go on hols early.

Sweet idea!

[TheMase]

Is there a huge difference between us finishing 4th, 5th, 6th etc?
If we cannot beat the teams 5-8 we don't deserve to win a premiership.

I would rather us rest our injured players, and finish 5th or 6th, than limp into the finals.

If we do manage to secure 4th, we will get Geelong anyway, probably lose and go into week two.

If we finish 5th or 6th, we win in the first week (with a fit list) and then we are pretty much at the same point as finishing 4th.

I doubt this year there is any great advantage to finishing 4th, other than the fact we will lose to Geelong and live another day.

[NMWBloods]

As long as we finish above the Crows then our only travelling will be to the MCG, so not a heap of difference from finishing 5th or 6th to finishing 4th. We can't get a home PF (which seems highly unlikely from 4th anyway) and our SF would also be away, but our EF would be at home (so 4th AHA and 5th HAA).

[hammo]

If you are having a serious tilt at the flag then getting Geelong out of the way in the first week of the finals by finishing fourth is the best option. We then wouldn't meet them again until the grand final.

However the current Swans side is not capable of a serious tilt IMO and is nowhere near the calibre of Geelong or Hawthorn and, as I fear we'll see this weekend, the Dogs.

However to finish fourth and guarantee us 2, maybe 3 finals would be tremendous experience for our younger players like Moore, Bird and Jack. And if our better players are rested and fit then you never know.

[Plugger46]

If you are having a serious tilt at the flag then getting Geelong out of the way in the first week of the finals by finishing fourth is the best option. We then wouldn't meet them again until the grand final.

However the current Swans side is not capable of a serious tilt IMO and is nowhere near the calibre of Geelong or Hawthorn and, as I fear we'll see this weekend, the Dogs.

However to finish fourth and guarantee us 2, maybe 3 finals would be tremendous experience for our younger players like Moore, Bird and Jack. And if our better players are rested and fit then you never know.

I agree, I don't think we're capable of winning the flag. I think Geelong are deadset morals. Although at full strength, we're at least as good as the 'Dogs in my opinion and I would love to play Hawthorn in a final.

I think what most people are forgetting, is that the majority of the sides below us aren't all that good and are incapable of stringing a number of wins together. I think we're pretty well placed to hold on to 4th.

If we hold on to 4th and get the senior blokes fit, I don't think a GF appearance is totally out of the question. Lose to Geelong in the 1st week, win the semi at home and play the Hawthorn or the 'Dogs in a prelim down here.

[Primmy]

Bare minimum required is bragging rights over Collingwood, Crows, West Coast (yeah). Tell em their dreaming bragging rights over Hawthorn.

It will be up to the kiddies to see if they have leadership in their potential. Over to you boys.

Nic Fosdyke is injured, along with Timbo, Cheese, and all the rest of them.

Anyone going to Swans Club on Sunday? I am NOT going to sit through another Channel seven mess.

[Triple B]

Is there a huge difference between us finishing 4th, 5th, 6th etc?
If we cannot beat the teams 5-8 we don't deserve to win a premiership.

I would rather us rest our injured players, and finish 5th or 6th, than limp into the finals.

If we do manage to secure 4th, we will get Geelong anyway, probably lose and go into week two.

If we finish 5th or 6th, we win in the first week (with a fit list) and then we are pretty much at the same point as finishing 4th.

I doubt this year there is any great advantage to finishing 4th, other than the fact we will lose to Geelong and live another day.

Don't agree with that thinking at all.

The huge difference is by finishing 4th, losing to Geelong, we play in Sydney in Week 2, needing to win and then only one more win on the road for a spot in the GF.

Finish 5th or 6th, play and win in week 1, we then travel in Week 2 and must win 2 on the road to make the GF.

Add to the fact that if a miracle happened, we may even fluke Geelong and go straight thru to a prelim at home. Finish 5th, doesn't matter how good u play in week 1, you're on the road for the remainder.

Just on the possible miracle, we wouldn't be a hell of a lot bigger underdogs then we were when we beat Port in 2003. We had absolutely no chance of winning that QF against Port, but it was as good as over at halftime. It can happen.

[DST]

Based on Geelongs form, the only way you will be able to make a GF is to finish 4th or if you finish 2nd or 3rd win that first final.

That way you avoid having to play Geelong in a PF.

Not for an instance do I beleive we are currently capable of beating Geelong in a final but we are not without hope against say a North Melbourne, St Kilda, Richmond, Carlton, Essendon (at home) in the second week and either Western Bulldogs or Hawthorn in a PF.

Get through that and just need to make sure we don't go down to Geelong in a GF by more than 100 points like Port last year.

Come to think of it, it would be such a stress free day at a GF seeing your team playing and knowing that they don't have a hope in hell of winning, but at least players like Jack, Moore, Bird, Playfair and Mattner get a taste of a GF day.

DST
:D

[mcs]

As awesome as Geelong is you can never say never for any game of footy. I agree it would be fantastic to go to grand final day with no pressure on your team and not expecting a victory, but no game of footy is won before the 4 quarters are played and if you are good enough to make it to GF day then no matter who you are you have a chance. A tiny chance perhaps, but miracles can happen.

[Mr Magoo]

Based on this seasons form its not just Geelong we have to avoid in the finals - add to that Collingwood, Adelaide, Hawthorn and Western Bulldogs (all likely to be in the final eight). All in all makes it a pretty difficult finals series for us even if we get back to somewhere near our best 22.

[BeeEmmAre]

Don't agree with that thinking at all.

The huge difference is by finishing 4th, losing to Geelong, we play in Sydney in Week 2, needing to win and then only one more win on the road for a spot in the GF.

Finish 5th or 6th, play and win in week 1, we then travel in Week 2 and must win 2 on the road to make the GF.

Add to the fact that if a miracle happened, we may even fluke Geelong and go straight thru to a prelim at home. Finish 5th, doesn't matter how good u play in week 1, you're on the road for the remainder.

Just on the possible miracle, we wouldn't be a hell of a lot bigger underdogs then we were when we beat Port in 2003. We had absolutely no chance of winning that QF against Port, but it was as good as over at halftime. It can happen.




Bingo!

[AnnieH]

I reckon at this stage, I'll be happy if they just make the finals.
I really don't want this year to be the year that we miss out. Plenty of time for that when our stars retire.

Cheese asked me last night at the trivia whether I thought we'd make the grand final this year.
I said to him ... honestly, they'll be lucky to stay in the final eight the way they're playing at the moment.** They're going to need to pull something very, very special out of their butts in the next five weeks. He pretty much agreed.

He said that he's playing 1/2 a game for the reserves on Saturday, and is itching to get back into the firsts.


(**The truth is sometimes brutal.)

[sprite]

As awesome as Geelong is you can never say never for any game of footy. I agree it would be fantastic to go to grand final day with no pressure on your team and not expecting a victory, but no game of footy is won before the 4 quarters are played and if you are good enough to make it to GF day then no matter who you are you have a chance. A tiny chance perhaps, but miracles can happen.

Port Adelaide must have used their chance just getting there.

They were never in it from the first bounce:D

[Kanga]

Are the Swans home finals played at the SCG or the White Elephant @ Homebush? I think this makes a big difference to your chances..... just my view.

[mcs]

Our finals record at both grounds Kanga is actually pretty good overall I would think. Id prefer us to play at the SCG in front of a packed house, on the ground we play best but I believe unless The elephant isnt available we play them out there. I guess the club makes a lot more in terms of 70000 odd at Homebush vs 30000 or whatever the SCG currently holds, but IMO we should take the advantage playing at the SCG gives, especially if Homebush is in such trashy condition as it has been for all 3 games this year.