Top 4 Reality thread.

[Bas]

Let's look at this for last 4 rounds.

The games are:

Sydney
1. Fremantle;
2. Geelong;
3. Collingwood;
4. Brisbane.

2 maybe 3 wins at very best.

Crows
1. Richmond;
2. Essendon;
3. St Kilda;
3. Bulldogs.

2 maybe 3 wins

Norf
1. Bulldogs;
2. Carlton;
3. Geelong;
4. Port.

Probably 2 wins

St Kilda
1. Collingwood;
2. Fremantle (A)
3. Adelaide (H)
4. Essendon.

Probably 2 wins maybe 3. Next weeks game to be a big one.

Eddie's Mob
1. St Kilda;
2. Port;
3. Sydney;
4. Fremantle.

Who know's could win 4 or lose all. You would think 2 maybe 3.

I thought this might improve the guess work but it hawsn't really. Essendon starting to be nuisance value. I think magpies have the best 4 games.
Norf has worst draw in my opinion.

Next game we lose, we lose 4th spot as well.

[Lohengrin]

You should put in where the games are.

[ugg]

We have to beat Collingwood (assuming we beat Freo and Brissie and lose to Geelong) otherwise we will be usurped by the winner of the St Kilda/Adelaide game in Round 21.

[mcs]

we have to win one of Geelong/Collingwood imo to make the 4, but that of course is presiding on us beating Freo and Brisbane (Which I think we can but it wont be easy). Lucky for us, none of those teams are setting the world alight and we might be lucky enough to end up the last one standing for the 4.

Not that I think it really matters- The Pies are probably the only ones that could scare Geelong come finals time and even then I think the whole lot are cannon Fodder for the Hawks and Geelong. I do think however the Dogs are not going well at all and imo wont really threaten come finals time. They were very underwhelming imo today.

[573v30]

3 wins to guarantee 4th spots, 2 wins might be enough if we're lucky.

[barry]

Simple fact is, if we cant beat Freo and Brisbane at home, then we might as well tank for draft picks. You have to assume those two will be wins.

Geelong is tough, but they have never played at homebush, so we are a rough chance out there.

Collingwood is in free-fall. They could actually be out of finals contention by the time we play them. We are actually a chance.

So I think we are good for 2 wins, and a chance to snatch 3. As the incumbant, 4th spot is still in our destiny.

A big win against post-derby Freo this week will turn things around. Could have Leo, Goodes and Malceski back for that game!

[NMWBloods]

I remain confident we will win 3 and finish with 13 wins. That should be enough to keep fourth. North almost certainly will lose one. Adelaide most likely. StKilda same.

We have a chance then of 2 or 3 finals. However, we do then get the late start for next season again...

[annew]

Bulldogs are saying that they are going to rest players for the finals so we cant count on them winning against the other teams to help us make 4th - Bugger!!! NM will probably beat them and Adelaide too so we have to win 3 of our last 4 to keep 4th spot. Oh well it was nice dreaming.

[Captain]

I still think we will come 4th if we win 2 games.

Kangas will most likely lose 2.

Pies are sure to lose 1 and Saints/Crows aren't in good enough form to win 3/4.

Obviously would be a lot better if we can win 3 of our next 4.

[Plugger46]

Pretty confident we'll hold 4th, due to the fact that no one below us is any better.

[Dogzbody]

I think Saints are the smokey.......

Ive done several ladder predictions, and Saints keep coming in 4th. I base our performaces on 2/4, I honestly think we will have to beat Collingwood to make fourth (and that includes wins against Bris and Freo)

We wont beat Geelong, I dont really think anyone will.

[bennyfrou]

I think Saints are the smokey.......

Ive done several ladder predictions, and Saints keep coming in 4th. I base our performaces on 2/4, I honestly think we will have to beat Collingwood to make fourth (and that includes wins against Bris and Freo)

We wont beat Geelong, I dont really think anyone will.

Knowing our swannies it is possible we will beat Geelong and Collingwood and lose to Freo and brisbane!!

I reckon we will win 2/4 and finish 4th on percentage only.

[Cheer Squad]

Geelong is tough, but they have never played at homebush, so we are a rough chance out there.



We played the Cats at Homebush in Round 5, 2006, and won that game by 22 points.

[waterfowl]

To keep the No4 spot would be awesome but we need to have resolved most of the injury problems by then and have the team in really good form. If it goes to plan and the miraculous happens and we make the GF - I guess we'll have three chances at Geelong to get their measure. :)

[T-bag]

Pretty confident we'll hold 4th, due to the fact that no one below us is any better.

You are right. No one below us is any better, but they seem to be able to find ways to win and we can't

[ScottH]

You are right. No one below us is any better, but they seem to be able to find ways to win and we can't

But they find ways to lose, which we can too.

[Plugger46]

You are right. No one below us is any better, but they seem to be able to find ways to win and we can't

:confused:

With the exception of North, we've won more games than all of them.

[sprite]

Bas - you missed Richmond - they have a run that could provide three wins.

[Darren Thomson]

I think Saints are the smokey.......

Ive done several ladder predictions, and Saints keep coming in 4th. I base our performaces on 2/4, I honestly think we will have to beat Collingwood to make fourth (and that includes wins against Bris and Freo)

We wont beat Geelong, I dont really think anyone will.

Couldn't agree more. We might even be better off finishing fifth on the ladder, home final against a St Kilda or Richmond is a lot better than playing Geelong in Melbourne. Injuries and fitness our big problem, and as I read on another thread, without Magic up there the forward line is not going to work properly;) ;)

[dendol]

Couldn't agree more. We might even be better off finishing fifth on the ladder, home final against a St Kilda or Richmond is a lot better than playing Geelong in Melbourne. Injuries and fitness our big problem, and as I read on another thread, without Magic up there the forward line is not going to work properly;) ;)
There are no circumstances where finishing 5th is better than 4th. Absolutely none. Although Port in 2003 was not as invincible as the Cats seem now, it proves a win is not impossible if you get a chance to try.

[NMWBloods]

There are no circumstances where finishing 5th is better than 4th. Absolutely none. No - I don't know why people keep saying that.

[T-bag]

:confused:

With the exception of North, we've won more games than all of them.

form is a wonderful thing :rolleyes:

[dendol]

No - I don't know why people keep saying that.
the irrational belief that an almost-assured loss against the best in the comp is worse than the less-than-guaranteed win against the team that scrapes into 8th.

[Plugger46]

There are no circumstances where finishing 5th is better than 4th. Absolutely none. Although Port in 2003 was not as invincible as the Cats seem now, it proves a win is not impossible if you get a chance to try.

Spot on. Much prefer to have a crack at the Cats, than play a cut-throat EF.


form is a wonderful thing :rolleyes:

So which sides below us are in wonderful form?

- North are going well but we have a huge % gap on them. They still have to play Geelong and the Bulldogs too.

- St.Kilda lost to the Eagles two weeks ago and fell over Port Adelaide on the weekend. They did beat Hawthorn a few weeks back but their form is pretty erratic. Huge game for them against Collingwood this week.

- Collingwood are going worse than us and have less excuses.

- Adelaide have won a couple of important games but now Porplyzia has gone down, I don't think they're going to be able to knock us out.

- Brisbane have lost 3 of their last 4.

- Richmond and Carlton are too far back to threaten.

Based on that, I think we're still very well placed to hold 4th.

[Kanga]

if the Swans can get their act together and get the ball in quickly to the fwd line, you will probably get your three wins..... should be enough to keep North and the others from knocking off fourth spot. The swans will not win too many more games chipping the ball across the half back line.

Great to see the finals race getting very interesting & as I have said before its a shame you guys dont play north again given the draw last time......

Good luck.

[AnnieH]

if the Swans can get their act together and get the ball in quickly to the fwd line, you will probably get your three wins..... should be enough to keep North and the others from knocking off fourth spot. The swans will not win too many more games chipping the ball across the half back line.

Great to see the finals race getting very interesting & as I have said before its a shame you guys dont play north again given the draw last time......

Good luck.

Spot on Kanga.
Playing kick to kick in the second quarter of any game isn't going to get us a decent finals berth.

[NMWBloods]

Why are our best kicks in the backline? It's hardly surprising our attack is rubbish.

[ScottH]

Spot on Kanga.
Playing kick to kick in the second quarter of any game isn't going to get us a decent finals berth.That was a shocking qtr for exactly that. The only one who seemed willing to bang it long forward, was Vespa.


Why are our best kicks in the backline? It's hardly surprising our attack is rubbish.They get more practice kicking (see AnnieH's comment), dummy.

[hammo]

The Collingwood game must seriously be in play now with no H.Shaw or Didak. We'll probably never have a better chance to get the monkey off our back.

[Lucky Knickers]

I think we can still do Top4.
Leo/Goodes back and away we go.

[Bas]

The Collingwood game must seriously be in play now with no H.Shaw or Didak. We'll probably never have a better chance to get the monkey off our back.


You would think so but how many times in the past have you seen them fall over against teams with their best players out.

Chapman has always been damaging against us as well as didak so it does help with them out.

[ScottH]

I think we can still do Top4.
Leo/Goodes back and away we go.

MOL coming soon to a ground near you!!

[Dogzbody]

You would think so but how many times in the past have you seen them fall over against teams with their best players out.

Chapman has always been damaging against us as well as didak so it does help with them out.

True about Chapman, and I may be mistaken but I believe he was missing when we beat Geelong by 22 in 2006 at ANZ.