To Make the Eight

[snajik]

For Sydney to make the eight in 2010 it will need to leapfrog 4 sides just to finish 8th. Finishing 6th or higher would be preferable though that would mean overtaking 6 sides. How feasible is that?

I think getting back to September action is the first step but in a fairly even competition particularly in that 6th-14th 2009 group, who are the sides that we could realistically overtake? The other part of the equation is that we still must finish above the four sides that finished 13-16 in 2009.

I reckon we can probably jump WCE, Port, Essendon and maybe Brisbane. I'm not sure that we can catch the Hawks who look capable of improvement, and I don't think we are quite where Carlton are just yet. The danger could be improvement from WCE, Freo and possibly the erratic and unpredictable North. Melbourne should improve but not considerably and I don't see the Tigers doing anything too remarkable.

It won't be an easy achievement but I think the draw is far kinder in 2010 than it was in 09 whaih gives us a chance.

[Cardinal]

For Sydney to make the eight in 2010 it will need to leapfrog 4 sides just to finish 8th. Finishing 6th or higher would be preferable though that would mean overtaking 6 sides. How feasible is that?

I think getting back to September action is the first step but in a fairly even competition particularly in that 6th-14th 2009 group, who are the sides that we could realistically overtake? The other part of the equation is that we still must finish above the four sides that finished 13-16 in 2009.

I reckon we can probably jump WCE, Port, Essendon and maybe Brisbane. I'm not sure that we can catch the Hawks who look capable of improvement, and I don't think we are quite where Carlton are just yet. The danger could be improvement from WCE, Freo and possibly the erratic and unpredictable North. Melbourne should improve but not considerably and I don't see the Tigers doing anything too remarkable.

It won't be an easy achievement but I think the draw is far kinder in 2010 than it was in 09 whaih gives us a chance.

IMHO:

The Bombers are so far over-rated by the Victorians it makes me laugh and that was before their draw.

Norths and Freo no chance to make the 8.

West Coast are the big chance in my book to improve.

Carlton without Fev could still disappoint their supporters next year.

Hawthorn and Brisbane will be hard to overtake.

So I give us a slim chance but my heart says top 4

[Bloods05]

IMHO:

The Bombers are so far over-rated by the Victorians it makes me laugh and that was before their draw.

Norths and Freo no chance to make the 8.

West Coast are the big chance in my book to improve.

Carlton without Fev could still disappoint their supporters next year.

Hawthorn and Brisbane will be hard to overtake.

So I give us a slim chance but my heart says top 4

That's "North".

[barry]

To me, its either top 4 of nothing. We could possibly sneak into the top 4.

Our competitors as you state:

Carlton - Fev is a massive loss. Will be lucky to make the 8.
Brisbane - Could be premiers or spooners. Could go either way.
Essendon - Embarrasing list. Wont make 8.
North - Have the worst list in the comp. Spoon for sure now that no team is tanking in 2010.
Hawthorn - I think 2008 was a fluke, but will be around the top 8.
WCE - Still rebuilding. Wont make the 8.
Freo - ha, ha.

I also dont think Geelong will make top 4 this year. They will be spent after 3 straight grand finals. St Kilda be up there. Adelaide and Dogs too.
We'll fight the pies for 4th, but I think the addition of Jolly will make them stronger than us.

[Cardinal]

That's "North".

Not Norths of the border

[Puppy Eyes]

We don't have to leapfrog anyone. We all start on exactly the same points and a percentage of exactly 100%.

Whilst at the the start of every season there might always be one or two sides who you could safely pick to make the top 8, and another one or two you could safely pick not to, the last decade has shown every year that there are at least three or four sides who either outperform or under perform against expectations.

In fact, 2009 was the first season in years that the "experts" accurately picked how the Swans would fare.

I fully expect the Swans to make the top 4 in 2010.

[goswannie14]

In fact, 2009 was the first season in years that the "experts" accurately picked how the Swans would fare.If you keep predicting the same outcome, eventually you will get it right!;)

[digital]

We don't have to leapfrog anyone. We all start on exactly the same points and a percentage of exactly 100%.

Whilst at the the start of every season there might always be one or two sides who you could safely pick to make the top 8, and another one or two you could safely pick not to, the last decade has shown every year that there are at least three or four sides who either outperform or under perform against expectations.

In fact, 2009 was the first season in years that the "experts" accurately picked how the Swans would fare.

I fully expect the Swans to make the top 4 in 2010.

Based on paper, the side that the Swans field next year, and without being heavily hit with injuries, is capable of making the top 6. That would be an excellent result given the list turnover.

[mcs]

To make the eight I thought we simply have to be above 8 teams on the ladder, be it by points or on %. Have the rules suddenly changed lol! :D

[johnno]

Carlton will fall bigtime, Essendon will be there abouts, cant see the Hawks doing much, Power are my pick for the spoon in 2010, west coast to be big improvers in 2010, Lions might make top 4 but if not than they will easily be top 8. Crows, saints,Lions, Dogs and cats to fight over top 4 spots. The pies? I would love to see them drop out, but they will be there abouts again. Certainties are Cats, Dogs, saints, crows and lions for top 8, last 3 spots to be fought out between swans, eagles, pies, bombers and possibly hawks. Forget the rest.

[reigning premier]

We'll make the 8 in 2010 no probs. But I don't expect us to do much more than that. 2011 though, a different story altogether. I expect us to be the real deal around about then.

[AnnieH]

A bit early to be making predictions.

[laughingnome]

A bit early to be making predictions.

Which is why the bookies are offering decent odds :p

[Cardinal]

Which is why the bookies are offering decent odds :p

On the top 4 or 8 ?

[swansrob]

Sportsbet has us at $67 (13th place) to win the GF. Not great odds at all...
Sportsbet - Futures (https://www.sportsbet.com.au/sports/event/SportID/4/CompetitionPID/21219/RoundPID/433/EventID/1004424)

[Cardinal]

Sportsbet has us at $67 (13th place) to win the GF. Not great odds at all...
Sportsbet - Futures (https://www.sportsbet.com.au/sports/event/SportID/4/CompetitionPID/21219/RoundPID/433/EventID/1004424)

Too big a call to win - I'd take a top 4 punt at 25 to 1

[Wardy]

well to get into the eight - they have to win alot more games than they won last year and preferably with a decent percentage on their side - its a simplistic view - but an accurate one.

[reigning premier]

well to get into the eight - they have to win alot more games than they won last year and preferably with a decent percentage on their side - its a simplistic view - but an accurate one.

Really???? So to finish further up the ladder next year than we did this year, the only thing we have to do is win more games than we did this year??? Intersting concept. Let me get Roosy on the phone. I'm not sure he has factored in such an off the wall strategy for 2010 but I have no doubt he'll be interested. I'll let you know if he's keen to follow up with you.

[Wardy]

Really???? So to finish further up the ladder next year than we did this year, the only thing we have to do is win more games than we did this year??? Intersting concept. Let me get Roosy on the phone. I'm not sure he has factored in such an off the wall strategy for 2010 but I have no doubt he'll be interested. I'll let you know if he's keen to follow up with you.

tell me where its wrong???;)

It was a simple question that required a simple answer!

[reigning premier]

tell me where its wrong???;)

It was a simple question that required a simple answer!

Your wasted in your current job. You need to be working with Roosy and heading up a "Strategy & Special projects team". I'll give him a call... ;)

[Wardy]

Your wasted in your current job. You need to be working with Roosy and heading up a "Strategy & Special projects team". I'll give him a call... ;)

It takes a woman to say it how it really is!!!:D

[AnnieH]

well to get into the eight - they have to win alot more games than they won last year and preferably with a decent percentage on their side - its a simplistic view - but an accurate one.


Really???? So to finish further up the ladder next year than we did this year, the only thing we have to do is win more games than we did this year??? Intersting concept. Let me get Roosy on the phone. I'm not sure he has factored in such an off the wall strategy for 2010 but I have no doubt he'll be interested. I'll let you know if he's keen to follow up with you.

Percentage!

Percentage can keep you out of the 8.

[Wardy]

Percentage!

Percentage can keep you out of the 8.

too right Annie - as I said have a decent percentage - and win more games and we can make it!!!

[Bloody Hell]

That's "North".

Maybe he was talking about the Bears...they have no chance of making the 8 as well.

[top40]

A bit early to be making predictions.

You are so right!

I recently read an old Newslimited newspaper special "AFL 2009 Season" magazine dating back from March 2009. There was the usual suspects of so called experts (eg Mike Sheahan et al) all making their annual predictions for the forthcoming season. Everyone predicted at least top 3 for Hawthorn with a large number predicting a back to back flag for the Hawks. Many predicted top 8 for Richmond. And the most amazing predictions came from the several who thought St Kilda would not reach the finals in season 2009.

A very sweet memory goes back to the beginning of season 2003, where every single Melbourne based AFL journo predicated that the Swans would get either the spoon or finish second last. Herein I repeat it's too early to be making any specific predictions about 2010. Yet call be a "glass half full" person, but I can't help but get same feelings about 2010 for the Sydney Swans as with seasons 1996 and 2003: an unexpectedly very strong showing.

[CureTheSane]

Nothing surer than the Swans finishing on top of the ladder next season :)

[timthefish]

We'll make the 8 in 2010 no probs. But I don't expect us to do much more than that. 2011 though, a different story altogether. I expect us to be the real deal around about then.

i reckon we're currently in the 5-10 band, probably play finals but not go far in september. i think our list is balanced and structure sound. we're yet to see how our new on-ball division performs, how our forward structure works and where and how well goodes will play.

injuries, form late in the year and just plain luck are massive unpredictable factors that make things exciting. if our team gels early, we get a good run regarding injury and we get momentum at the right time we could well be that team (in most years) that goes from bottom 8 to top 4.

then, who knows?

[ep2006]

Two teams will drop out of last years top eight IMO and those two will be Essendon and Carlton. With Hawthorn almost certainly talking one of those positions it is going to be a hot race but surely the Swans are the most likely (if they get Bradshaw they'd be almost certain).

But dont right off the others we saw what Essendon did this year, it could even be Melbourne.

[Young Blood]

For the next couple of years we should concentrate on getting games into the kids. This will almost certainly lead to some inconsistent performances, making top 4 most unlikely next year.

We need to keep our eyes on the prize - our next flag. The development of White, Meredith, Hannebery, Vesz, Smith, Bird, Grundy, Jack, Mumford and Kennedy - plus the blooding of Currie, Johnstone, Heath and hopefully at least one this year's draft picks - is more important than where we finish on the ladder in 2010.

[Rhys]

For the next couple of years we should concentrate on getting games into the kids. This will almost certainly lead to some inconsistent performances, making top 4 most unlikely next year.

We need to keep our eyes on the prize - our next flag. The development of White, Meredith, Hannebery, Vesz, Smith, Bird, Grundy, Jack, Mumford and Kennedy - plus the blooding of Currie, Johnstone, Heath and hopefully at least one this year's draft picks - is more important than where we finish on the ladder in 2010.
I understand where your coming from, but disagree with your point. These "kids" have been playing aussie rules since there around 9-10 years old and even younger (with the exception of Mike Pyke). I cannot understand why people talk like these players havent kicked a footy before. Rebuileding is happeneing right now over 09-10 summer not during the season itself. Every team aim has to be the same every year "Win the premiership". Look at the bulldogs in the NRL for example, the went form dead last in 2008 to preliminary finalists in 2009, they didn't need 5 years of rebuilding. Look at Brazil in the soccer, when was the last time they wernt dominating the world stage. I know there not afl team but it is the same situation. The offseason is for rebuilding and refocusing players but once it's time 4 round one to kickoff "everyone" has their eyes on the premiership cup.

[Cardinal]

Two teams will drop out of last years top eight IMO and those two will be Essendon and Carlton. With Hawthorn almost certainly talking one of those positions it is going to be a hot race but surely the Swans are the most likely (if they get Bradshaw they'd be almost certain).

But dont right off the others we saw what Essendon did this year, it could even be Melbourne.

The Pies are also suspect in my books.

[caj23]

Two teams will drop out of last years top eight IMO and those two will be Essendon and Carlton. With Hawthorn almost certainly talking one of those positions it is going to be a hot race but surely the Swans are the most likely (if they get Bradshaw they'd be almost certain).

But dont right off the others we saw what Essendon did this year, it could even be Melbourne.

Agree that Carlton and Essendon have gone backwards with trade week and will be pushing it to make the 8 next year, but Melbourne?????

LOL they might win enough games to avoid the priority pick again next year, but even their own supporters would admit they haven't got a snowflakes chance in hell of making the 8 next year

[Asterix]

In most football codes experience counts for a lot, and we've lost a heap of it. Experience means knowing where your team mates will be, what they'll do, how they'll back you up. It will take us some time to gel together as a team, particularly out of the stoppages and into attack. This can be simulated in training, but nothing makes up for playing together week in, week out. For that reason I think we'll do well to sneak into the 8, and anything higher than 6th would be fantastic this season.

We should do better than the Demons, Roos, Richmond, Freo, Port and West Coast. Geelong, St Kilda and the Bulldogs will do better than us next year.

So we will battle with Hawthorn, Brisbane, Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon and Adelaide.

It will be interesting how Carlton go without Fev, but in Gibbs, Murphy and Kreuzer they have some excellent young players. Adelaide and Brisbane really look like they have the players to kick on next season - Porplyzia, Tippett, Vince, Petrenko, Dangerfield and Walker are a really decent bunch of young players, and Brisbane have similar depth, with aome long term injured blokes coming back too. Plus Voss may turn out to be a very good coach.

No one likes talking about Collingwood.

So we need to go better than Essendon.

Simple.

[RogueSwan]

In most football codes experience counts for a lot, and we've lost a heap of it. Experience means knowing where your team mates will be, what they'll do, how they'll back you up. It will take us some time to gel together as a team, particularly out of the stoppages and into attack. This can be simulated in training, but nothing makes up for playing together week in, week out...

I have just been looking at the stats for 2003 final against Port.
In that game we had a total of 2304 games experience, an average of ~105 games.

then I took the rnd22 game against the lions from last year and took out Barry, Jolly, O'Loughlin and Crouch and replace them with Seaby, Mumford, Malceski and McGlynn (the first two are probables, the second two possibles.)
The total games experience came to 2207, an average of 100 games. Not a lot of difference in terms of experience.

Back in 2003 the young (read: less than 50 games) guy were Ablett, LRT, Doyle, Stevens and Schneider.
In 2009 they are: MOD, Hanners, Thornton, Smith, White,Mumford, Grundy and McGlynn.
Maybe we do have the experience to push well into the top 8? :)

[ScottH]

The Pies are also suspect in my books.

I would like to agree with you, but they aren't looking any worse than they did come their final weekend in September, and they've added a top ranked ruckman to their list. Lost a key forward who they did well without, anyway. AND some good kids who now have some experience, and will get a decent pre-season into them.

I wouldn't be writing them off just yet.

[caj23]

I would like to agree with you, but they aren't looking any worse than they did come their final weekend in September, and they've added a top ranked ruckman to their list. Lost a key forward who they did well without, anyway. AND some good kids who now have some experience, and will get a decent pre-season into them.

I wouldn't be writing them off just yet.

Unfortunately I have to agree with Scott on this one :(

[Cardinal]

Unfortunately I have to agree with Scott on this one :(

Without doing any analysis of the draw whatsoever I reckon they'll have a harder run of teams this year irrespective of where their games are played

[ScottH]

Unfortunately I have to agree with Scott on this one :( Sad ins't it.

Maybe the Pies should've used Carltons 2009 Slogan.


Without doing any analysis of the draw whatsoever I reckon they'll have a harder run of teams this year irrespective of where their games are played

Well they are not happy with the draw, but they still have a lot of games in Melbourne, which is advantageous to them