Why?

[Swanno]

Why does it seem that some people on this site appear to be writing us off before the season is done and before the finals have even started? Obviously last night was a disappointment, but put into perspective that fact that we have something like 6 premiership players out and a few coming back into the side from injury (mcglynn and shaw).

Now I'm not one to post often as you have probably noticed, but it annoys me to see so many people writing off 4th before the seasons done and saying its virtually impossible to win the flag from any lower than 4th. To these people I call bull@@@@. Firstly, last time I checked we were 3rd and still one of the strongest teams in the competition even with so many injuries.

Secondly, if its one thing I learned from being a Swans supporter over the years is that it's not over till the fat lady sings. Think back to this time last year, we lost 3 of our last 4 IIRC and we're given no hope in the finals. Yet we overcame the fancied crows, broke (somewhat) of a hoodoo against the pies and took out the "strongest" team in the big one.

I also wanted to remind people of 2005 where we basically did what a team lower than fourth had to do to win a flag (excusing the second chance we got).

So before you write off the Swans just remember, we have the pedigree and history to know that we can bring it to any team at any time and on the biggest stage of all.

[DamY]

Nice work brother, I completely agree

[ElaineAgapiou]

Well said ????

[albrotha]

Well said could not agree more.

[0918330512]

Firstly, I agree with you. Before the final siren has gone in a losing game the doom & gloom posts are aplenty.

BUT to offer a devil's advocate viewpoint...


we have something like 6 premiership players out and a few coming back into the side from injury (mcglynn and shaw).

Freo also have a horror injury run.


and saying its virtually impossible to win the flag from any lower than 4th.

to my knowledge (& I'm happy to be corrected) a premiership from 5th or lower has only been achieved once since the VFL/AFL began in 1897 ... the Crows I think from 5th ... so, while not impossible, the odds aren't really in favor of it


, last time I checked we were 3rd and still one of the strongest teams in the competition even with so many injuries.

True, BUT the Hawks & Cats seem to have been stronger for much of the year, BOTH of them beat us earlier in the year, & they both play us in the final 2 rounds. Certainly not impossible, but not like we're playing Melbourne & GWS ... speaking of which, Freo, who are breathing down our necks had both of these teams in the final 4 rounds. In fact, in the final four rounds we have 3 top 5 sides. Freo have 3 bottom 3 sides. Fair chance 4th is a best case scenario. This is coupled with Collingwood & Richmond being only 1 1/2 games behind us with 2-3 winnable games ... thus arises the concern.

But I agree than anything can happen on any given day & we are seasoned campaigners with a good track record & the intangible Bloods spirit. Have faith.

[SimonH]

2 completely different issues.

1. Are Sydney good enough to win the flag? Hell yeah. Losing once, even in a disappointing way, doesn't mean that you're not. Whoever wins the flag will have had a disappointing loss this year. Hawthorn's was just a week ago. Adelaide were ripped limb from limb in the first week of finals (by Melbourne of all teams) in a year they went on to win the flag.

2. Will Sydney actually win the flag if we finish below 4th? Nothing's impossible, I guess, but in a word: no. Previous finals systems were completely different (e.g. the 1994?99 system had no advantage to finishing anywhere from 3rd to 6th). The relevant time in the current system is from the year 2000 onwards. In that time, there have been 52 sides (13 years x 4) who've finished 5th to 8th and played finals. Not one has even played a GF, let alone won it. Of the 26 EF winners, 24 have gone out in the 2nd week. A grand total of 2 have won their SF. They've both lost their prelim (albeit narrowly). Records are made to be broken, but that's a long enough history that it's not just bad luck or coincidence.

[Cardinal]

If we don't make top 4 by beating Geelong, the Hawks, or both, then we shouldn't expect to suddenly turn it around because of a tradition of finals' competitiveness. Luckily I expect to beat both in the regular season and then in the finals.

[Go Swannies]

If we don't make top 4 by beating Geelong, the Hawks, or both, then we shouldn't expect to suddenly turn it around because of a tradition of finals' competitiveness. Luckily I expect to beat both in the regular season and then in the finals.

However, last year I couldn't understand the underdone performance of the Swans vs the Cats in the H&A conclusion of 2012 - just as the lack of run on Saturday was baffling. In both cases the flag seemed out of reach at the end of those games. Preparing for the finals was the best explanation in both cases. But the loss to the Pies puts us where we were before the strange loses the weekend before (Cats and Hawks downed) - we MUST beat the Saints and have to win one of the Hawks or Cats games. I'd much prefer to beat the Cats to take the pressure off for the last game of the H&A season.

[ScottH]

It's just the emotional roller coaster of the season.
Imagine what this site would have been like in the early 90's.

*shudders*

Compared to last year it is very similar, but we did drop from 1st to 3rd.
Where as this year if it plays out the same, we could drop from 3rd to 5th.
No team has won from outside the top 4 since the introduction of a final 8 System.
Swans have a way of breaking hoodoos in recent years.
The H&A season is just shuffling the deck chairs, come finals time it is winner takes all.
4 wins on the trot is not impossible.

2 more wins out of 3 would be nice!!
3 from 3 would be greatly appreciated!!

Never say Never!!

[Ajn]

2 out of three will be ideal and set us up to knock off hawks at mcg. Freo vs Geelong maybe at freo. Fancy coming in us underdogs with a stronger list available

[Velour&Ruffles]

Why does it seem that some people on this site appear to be writing us off before the season is done and before the finals have even started? Obviously last night was a disappointment, but put into perspective that fact that we have something like 6 premiership players out and a few coming back into the side from injury (mcglynn and shaw).

Now I'm not one to post often as you have probably noticed, but it annoys me to see so many people writing off 4th before the seasons done and saying its virtually impossible to win the flag from any lower than 4th. To these people I call bull@@@@. Firstly, last time I checked we were 3rd and still one of the strongest teams in the competition even with so many injuries.

Secondly, if its one thing I learned from being a Swans supporter over the years is that it's not over till the fat lady sings. Think back to this time last year, we lost 3 of our last 4 IIRC and we're given no hope in the finals. Yet we overcame the fancied crows, broke (somewhat) of a hoodoo against the pies and took out the "strongest" team in the big one.

I also wanted to remind people of 2005 where we basically did what a team lower than fourth had to do to win a flag (excusing the second chance we got).

So before you write off the Swans just remember, we have the pedigree and history to know that we can bring it to any team at any time and on the biggest stage of all.

I agree that our depth has been pleasing, but winning finals is a different proposition and the problem is that the players we really need most to do that will not be coming back (LRT, AJ), or won't have time to play themselves into form in the time remaining (Jetta, Goodes, Reid).

Also, we were extremely competitive in the Hawks and Pies games in the last few weeks of last year and terribly unlucky not to win both. In contrast, we were miles off the pace on Saturday night. The scoreboard flattered us and only served to wallpaper over a few very fundamental problems (eg two weeks in a row now we've been outrun, outnumbered at the ball and smashed out of the middle, our supposed strengths). Unless we show massive and immediate improvement then it is a false comfort to draw any comparisons with last year's win/loss ratio in the run home.

[Jewels]

Maybe I'm just a cockeyed optimist but just because it's never been won from 5th or 6th doesn't mean it can never be. As I have said before, with the exception of Simmonds Stadium were there is no finals anyway, there isn't a ground in this league that we haven't won and won comfortably at in the past two seasons so we just might have to be trail blazers this year, while there's life there's hope.
I'll be keeping the faith for a few more weeks!

[ScottH]

Maybe I'm just a cockeyed optimist but just because it's never been won from 5th or 6th doesn't mean it can never be. As I have said before, with the exception of Simmonds Stadium were there is no finals anyway, there isn't a ground in this league that we haven't won and won comfortably at in the past two seasons so we just might have to be trail blazers this year, while there's life there's hope.
I'll be keeping the faith for a few more weeks!

But we have won there in the last 2 years though.

[Primmy]

I think our deep disappointment is because the loss was against collingwood and we thought the hoodoo was over. If anything it will whip the boys into line, the job is not over yet and it is not going to get any easier. We have a couple of blokes there who have played in winning and losing grannies.

OOhhhh we have Granny Experience!!! Kind of like that. We can't win them all, but we can sure make a good fist of it.

[Xie Shan]

I think our deep disappointment is because the loss was against collingwood and we thought the hoodoo was over. If anything it will whip the boys into line, the job is not over yet and it is not going to get any easier. We have a couple of blokes there who have played in winning and losing grannies.


Yes we lost this game last year (though was much closer). At the game we were thinking that we were quite fortunate to get them coming off a six day break when we played them in the finals last year, on top of travelling to J-Mac's funeral earlier in the week, so possibly a square up from the footy gods.

[Swanno]

Maybe I'm just a cockeyed optimist but just because it's never been won from 5th or 6th doesn't mean it can never be. As I have said before, with the exception of Simmonds Stadium were there is no finals anyway, there isn't a ground in this league that we haven't won and won comfortably at in the past two seasons so we just might have to be trail blazers this year, while there's life there's hope.
I'll be keeping the faith for a few more weeks!

I'd like to think myself as the same cockeyed optimist, but everyone here has made valid points. I'm really surprised at the stat of "if you finish lower than 4th" it seems you're not going to go far or as far in the finals as the others who finished above you. Someone said Freo have a number of players out as well. While I can respect that (and I know you were only playing devil's advocate) I honestly think if it came to it, we could beat Freo in a finals scenario. No doubt they are a fantastic side, I just think we might sneak it in a close one.

On the issue of the Hawks and Geelong, well obviously these are the two teams that worry me the most. If you watch them, they are lightening fast, and as others have highlighted we aren't really the fastest pack going around. When we play these two we're going to have to seriously man up and use our footy smarts to try and get ahead of the game, otherwise I see them just burning us through the midfield. However, having said that, I am optimistic about picking up at least 4 points from the last two, and we really need to if we're going to all the way this year. Anyway, as I stated, I believe this team can pull out a big game at any time and against any team, and if anything, its going to be an exciting end to the season and start of the finals.

[mcs]

Maybe I'm just a cockeyed optimist but just because it's never been won from 5th or 6th doesn't mean it can never be. As I have said before, with the exception of Simmonds Stadium were there is no finals anyway, there isn't a ground in this league that we haven't won and won comfortably at in the past two seasons so we just might have to be trail blazers this year, while there's life there's hope.
I'll be keeping the faith for a few more weeks!

True, but its an immense task.

For example we finish 5th, with Richmond grabbing 4th (I expect Collingwood will get done by Hawks on Friday.
- Week 1 we get Port @ Home - they beat us earlier in the year, but we should be able to beat them.
- Ok, thats week 1 done. Then we have to beat a losing top 4 side - lets say Richmond get beat by Hawks. Our record away to richmond at the MCG is not pretty. But lets say we get the job done.
- Then week 3 we play a rested Geelong or Freo away from home. A huge task, especially if we go across the Nullabor (despite our good record at Subiaco).
- Then we have to win the big dance against probably Hawthorn or Geelong.

I could see us maybe making a Prelim, but by gee its tough to see anyone getting further than there from the bottom half of the eight. If we had a fully fit list, with our best 22 on the park, I'd give us a hope. But with a list with some significant (not necessarily best players) players out in key positions, then it makes it just that bit tougher.

Not that I'm not an optimist - I really do hope we can go at least 2 points better than we did in defending our crown in 2006. We are good enough on our day to beat any other team in the league. But if we only have to win 3 finals, its a lot more likely we can do that then if we have to win 4 straight finals.

- - - Updated - - -


I'd like to think myself as the same cockeyed optimist, but everyone here has made valid points. I'm really surprised at the stat of "if you finish lower than 4th" it seems you're not going to go far or as far in the finals as the others who finished above you. Someone said Freo have a number of players out as well. While I can respect that (and I know you were only playing devil's advocate) I honestly think if it came to it, we could beat Freo in a finals scenario. No doubt they are a fantastic side, I just think we might sneak it in a close one.

On the issue of the Hawks and Geelong, well obviously these are the two teams that worry me the most. If you watch them, they are lightening fast, and as others have highlighted we aren't really the fastest pack going around. When we play these two we're going to have to seriously man up and use our footy smarts to try and get ahead of the game, otherwise I see them just burning us through the midfield. However, having said that, I am optimistic about picking up at least 4 points from the last two, and we really need to if we're going to all the way this year. Anyway, as I stated, I believe this team can pull out a big game at any time and against any team, and if anything, its going to be an exciting end to the season and start of the finals.

I'd hardly argue the Hawks are lighning fast at all. Its just when they are on, their very accurate kicking game allows them to move the ball quickly. Likewise, geelong's midfield is not particularly quick. But when they are on, their ball usage and movement is fantastic, and they are very adept at the "get the ball forward at all costs" gameplan, which we really struggled with earlier in the year (and port used effectively against us too). Neither team is going to burn us with lightning midfield pace - but if we don't play the game on our terms (see Collingwood on Saturday night, who have a very slow midfield generally in terms of leg speed, but worked very hard), then we are made to look exceptionally cumbersome and behind the play.

No doubt, whatever happens, we will learn over the next three weeks a lot about our flag prospects. I think we will sneak into the 4 by knocking off one of Hawks or geelong, but what I really want to see is that we've identified the issues we had against them earlier in the year, and have managed to go some way towards rectifying them. That would leave me feeling a lot more confident about the finals.

[swantastic]

benny should not have been in for lamb and bj shoulda been on earlier..FACT....if we play like that we will get smashed in finals...FACT...we need to regroup was just a hiccup ...stinkin pies

[Go Swannies]

Ben was underdone on Saturday but we need him to be back up to AFL speed by finals. So we must play him every game from now on. He has shown the passion to redress the balance where his 2012 teammates have a Premiership medallion and he doesn't and has willed us across the line a few time already this year.

The only player not already playing well in reserves that we'll see again this year may be Goodes and he'd be a welcome return but he has tended to start slow after a break and this weekend is our only potentially slow game left for 2013.

[Bloodthirsty]

I think that all the comments from people going through things point by point and reasonably without supporter goggles on, are on the mark. It is about being realistic. We can win it, but the conditions need to be favourable. We can make the conditions favourable if we are good enough. We can't lose to the Hawks twice, lose to the Cats twice and draw with Freo at the SCG and think that we're the best team going around. Our fate is in our hands. I think the biggest issue will be big-gun proven players that won't make it back in time. The footy gods need to smile on Goodes and we need to get Rohan involved. I would also bring Morton into the mix. Playing rookies is not going to get the job done from now.

[Ludwig]

You don't have to be off by much to look like you're getting 'smashed'. The Swans workrate was just off that fraction to allow Dane Swan to get off a handball here and there that led to goals. Nic Mal made 3 errors in the first quarter that could have led to goals or prevented a Collingwood goal. Macca missed a few tackles he should have nailed. We could have been up by several goals at halftime. And that non-call for hands in the back against Cloke that led to a Collingwood goal was a momentum changer.

I just wanted to point out that there probably is not much difference between winning and losing these sort of games. We had some good passages of play that just failed at some point to get a goal, and we surely were off the pace during most of the second half, which has been pointed out.

It is difficult to know how much the training load effects performance, and what can be done to get the right balance. I pointed out in another thread that some Collingwood fans noted that Swan and Pendlebury didn't train or had light training the past week, and they both looked very fresh.

It's the job of the coaching staff to get that balance right. We can only hope they do and we get back to some of the scintillating ball movement we've seen for most of the season.

[hot potato]

Correct. The Pies were took every chance and pulled it off , slotted goals from everywhere, hit targets, conned the ump, and nailed it, making us look a bit ordinary.
It's prep to play the top sides in the lead up than smash the bottom sides .

HP

- - - Updated - - -

Better prep...

[Industrial Fan]

It was particularly irritating that they so frequently got out of congestion with low percentage looped hand balls.

Time after time they had loose players on their side of the stoppage. They also sweated on the players who didnt have the ball when we had it in traffic.

I could only get to the game at qtr time so was a frustrating game for me.

[mcs]

It was particularly irritating that they so frequently got out of congestion with low percentage looped hand balls.

Time after time they had loose players on their side of the stoppage. They also sweated on the players who didnt have the ball when we had it in traffic.

I could only get to the game at qtr time so was a frustrating game for me.

That point about the handballs was very noticeable, as every time they did that at the G earlier in the season, our midfield smashed them as soon as the ball arrived. That gives me hope that if we meet again this year, and our work ethic is back to where it was, then the result will also be back where it was (i.e. I'm not convinced Collingwood changed a lot from the earlier game where we smashed them, but this time we just weren't on and up for it in midfield.)

[Swansinger]

I do not write off our chance of finishing Top Four - not at all .But if there is ONE team which CAN win the flag from 5th or lower,it is THE SYDNEY SWANS. Do not doubt it - not for one second.

[crackedactor]

But we have won there in the last 2 years though. The way footy is played today, no team outside the 4 can win the flag, not even the Swans. But if they win 2 out of next 3 they will have not worries. Though the prospect of playing Fremantle on their home ground is not something to be cherished. Yes Saturday night was disappointing and maybe it had something to do with they training . As someone of this forum suggested -at the end of a strenuous training block to prepare for the finals and therefore maybe a bit leg weary (I hope). But I do know that if we play the way we played against Adelaide, they is no team in the comp. that can match us. Lets hope it is just a blimp on the radar.

[DeadlyAkkuret]

I'm not worried about Freo away. It'd be a bit like when we faced the Crows in the qualifying final last year.

Fremantle finishing 2nd and us 3rd would be the perfect storm.

[On-Baller]

Not sure how much substance there is to it but over the weekend i heard mentioned on radio that the swans last week were just coming to the end of a very heavy loading period training wise in preperation for the finals,apparently Hawks and Cats were a week ahead of us and had similiar results a week before at the end of their heavy loading periods.

Hopefully that may explain how we went from the hardest running team to looking very slow in a matter of a week.My biggest worry is players getting games on reputation and not form,thats fine for say a double brownlow winner in Goodes but guys like Mcglynn who in the second half of the year has been patchy at best and then lacks discipline in being reported walks straight back into the team.

Lamb should not have been dropped,playing great footy,doing nothing wrong and gets dropped for the return of someone who clearly isnt match fit and let the team down with his lack of discipline.Surely Mcglynn should have played at least one week of ressies.Shaw as well may be better for the run but he is nowhere near fit enough to play the role he is so good at,and why even consider moving Mcveigh when he is in AA form at halfback.

Alot of talk about earning games and respect at the bloods but its one rule for some and another for others.Jude Boltons last few games have been great but before then Morton should have been playing that position.I love Jude as a player and person but he along with others shouldnt be guaranteed games on past performances.Judge everyone equally and on form and fitness and we will go back to back,squeeze players out who have done the job all season for guys who are not match fit and i dont like our chances.