2016 Expectations & Predictions

[Levii3]

Expected wins
Round: 2 (CAR, A), 6(BRI, A), 7(ESS, H), 10(NM, H), 13(MEL, H), 18(CAR, H), 19(FRE, A), 20(POR, H), 21(STK, A), 23(RIC, H)

Tough Call
Round: 1(COL, H), 3(GWS, H), 4(ADE, A), 11(GCS, A), 12(GWS, A), 22(NM, A)
Jeremy Cameron not playing round 3 so one less forward to worry about

Definite Loss
Round: 5(WCE, H), 8(RIC, A), 9(HAW, A), 15(WBD, H), 16(GEE, A), 17(HAW, H)

Expected Ladder Finish/ Wins
Finish 6-10, Wins 10-14
12 or 13 wins will get you into the top 8

Bob Skilton
Hannebery

Brownlow
Dangerfield, Hannebery or Fyfe maybe Cripps or Bont as a smokey

Coleman
?? Anyones guess

Nab Rising Star
Jacob Weiterging or Callum Mills

[Bexl]

Expected wins
Round: 2 (CAR, A), 6(BRI, A), 7(ESS, H), 10(NM, H), 13(MEL, H), 18(CAR, H), 19(FRE, A), 20(POR, H), 21(STK, A), 23(RIC, H)

Tough Call
Round: 1(COL, H), 3(GWS, H), 4(ADE, A), 11(GCS, A), 12(GWS, A), 22(NM, A)
Jeremy Cameron not playing round 3 so one less forward to worry about

Definite Loss
Round: 5(WCE, H), 8(RIC, A), 9(HAW, A), 15(WBD, H), 16(GEE, A), 17(HAW, H)

Expected Ladder Finish/ Wins
Finish 6-10, Wins 10-14
12 or 13 wins will get you into the top 8

Bob Skilton
Hannebery

Brownlow
Dangerfield, Hannebery or Fyfe maybe Cripps or Bont as a smokey

Coleman
?? Anyones guess

Nab Rising Star
Jacob Weiterging or Callum Mills

Expected win freo away Expected loss dogs at home? Are you sure?

[mcs]

Here's my go:

Wins
Round: 2 (CAR, A), 4(ADE, A), 6(BRI, A), 7(ESS, H), 11(GCS, A), 13(MEL, H), 18(CAR, H), 20(POR, H), 21(STK, A)

50/50 games
Round: 1(COL, H), 3(GWS, H), 10(NM, H), 12(GWS, A), 22(NM, A), 15(WBD, H), 23(RIC, H)

Loss
Round: 5(WCE, H), 8(RIC, A), 9(HAW, A), 16(GEE, A), 17(HAW, H) 19(FRE, A),

Expected Ladder Finish/ Wins: Somewhere between 5 and 8, with about 14/15 wins for the year.

Bob Skilton: Hanners - his pre season has been sharp, and I think he will go on from there for a big year.

Brownlow: Fyfe - the love in will continue, Hanners to finish top 3. Anyone but Sam Mitchell please.

Coleman: Josh Kennedy (West Coast version).

Nab Rising Star: Callum Mills - the kid is going to be something special.

Smokie to have a big impact for us: Papley - I really liked what we saw of him in Pre-season, and if they give him a decent chance early on in the season, I think he may soon cement a place in the top 22, as that small forward role is something we desperately need someone to jump into and say 'that's my spot' (Given no doubt Heeney will in time more more into the midfield). Otherwise, if he doesn't get a chance, hopefully Rose will get the chance to build on the good start to his AFL career

Its a big year for - a number of our fringe guys, in particular in my book Towers,Robinson, Marsh, BJ, Cunningham and Rohan. There are spots available in the top 22, but there are clearly several fringe guys that need to really stand up and make their mark, or the end of the road may be not too far off (Especially as we are likely to be busy in the trade period now the VFL trade restrictions are gone.)
- Towers needs to finally really stand up and deliver week in week out. He keeps teasing us at times, but there is only so long that he can be persevered with, and he is not getting any younger.
- Robinson is a fringe player at best in my book, and I don't think he will make it - but hope he proves me wrong.
- BJ shows flashes here and there, but has yet to put a consistent set of form in during the seniors, and needs to do that sooner rather than later.
- Marsh - got the clear warning sign last year, and may not get a chance in seniors if injuries don't play their part, but if it comes, he has to take it.
- Cunningham and Rohan - plenty will disagree with me in this space, and they are pretty safe from the chop come years end - but I really feel its a big year for both. Cunningham needs to find consistency and an ability to impact more on games, and Rohan has to get his body right and really prove he can pull out more than the odd top shelf game (like the NM prelim final in 2014) - we can't wait forever for him to get it right, and we desperately need him to really find rhythm at the top level.

On their last legs? Teddy and Ben Mcglynn. Father Time seems to be catching up with Teddy - but we need one big final year from him this year if possible. McGlynn has to get his body right asap, or else the end of the road may come quicker than we thought it would for him - especially if a young guy or two can really stake a claim for a place in the team going forward.

Summary of my view
I think 2016 may be a bit of a hard road for our boys in red and white, given the players we lost over the off season, and the alarming lack of depth we still have. Skills seem to have not increased a great deal from last season on what we've seen in pre-season, and I still think there are fundamental flaws with our gameplan and approach. But a fully fit Buddy all year, the emergence of two young superstars in Mills and Heeney, and hopefully a few surprise packets will mean, alongside the well established players, we will continue to be competitive.

I think we will finish bottom half of the eight, but remain a chance for the 4 if everything goes right - but that will need a great year from Buddy and Tippo, Sinclair to slot in well, Heeney and Mills to star, and most importantly our fringe players to step up hugely. I can't quite see it at this stage, but the Swans have surprised me many a time before, so hoping 2016 is another year like that.

2016 could be a pivotal year for the next few years as well. If the fringe guys don't stand up as we hope and prove they are up to AFL footy, we may see quite a substantial turnover in the trade period - with us recognising the need to do more rebuilding than we hoped (i.e. it may need to encompass more than just looking to plug the holes where older players are going). But if some of them stand up, and we see young guys do well, then we may be in a better position than we think we are.

At the very least, 2016 should be memorable for getting to watch the development of Heeney and Mills. They are both going to be superb players for us, and its so exciting watching the first baby steps of players you know are destined to be in the upper echelon of the AFL (just like in recent years, we've had the pleasure of watching the emergence at a young age of players like Hanners and Parker).

We've been spoilt in the last few years by a flag, another grand final, and several top 4 finishes. This year might not live up to that, but there is still a lot to like and enjoy I feel, and I am looking forward to it, with lower expectations about where the year might end up going, but with hope that we can be surprised. Come on you mighty Swannies!!!

[jono2707]

Anything less than a top 4 finish will be an abject failure - we didn't recruit Buddy so we could make up the numbers in the 8.

[Mug Punter]

I'm predicting bottom of the 8 but hoping for better.

Since when did we have such a sense of entitlement about finishing in the top 4?

[liz]

My expectations are reasonably modest. A top four spot would surprise me somewhat. This is based on the number of first and second year players who will be filling quite important spots. I am quite bullish about the group - in which I place Jones (technically a 3rd year player but held back by injury), Mills, Heeney, Rose, Papley and Hewett. They are the ones I expect to see decent amounts of senior footy from. Newman, Dawson and maybe even Leonardis might get games here or there, but I think their times will come in future years.

But it doesn't matter how talented that group is - and for Heeney and Mills, in particular, their talent is obvious. They will still take some time. They will have some excellent games and they will struggle to impact in others. We saw it with Heeney last year. For all the media gushing about his potential, and the recognition from the AFL establishment, he still struggled to get into several games. He'll probably do the same this year, and the rest will too.

Having a down year this year isn't a disaster from a Buddy perspective. We still have another six years of his service after this year, of which at least 3 can be expected to be at a very high standard, injury and health permitting. Our core midfield group - Hanners, Parker, Mitchell, Kennedy - is still pretty young, and even Jack and McVeigh likely have some good years left in them yet. So I am not predicting a long term down turn, just a temporary retreat while the younger players find their feet. Though we do need to unearth a good young KPP or two for future years, whether that's Talia, Melican, X or someone not at the club.

I agree that �unningham, Towers and Rohan are vital to this year's chances. I'd add Reid to that group too. Reid and Rohan have both teased us with glimpses of what they can do but they have spent most of their careers doing it for one quarter a game, two if we're lucky. Injuries have hindered both. If they can get their bodies right and bring more consistency to their games, they could go a long way to keeping us up in the top 4. It's not great that they both start the season on the injury list.

Cunningham and Towers are well behind Reid and Rohan but they've been around long enough to make solid contributions. Their best is unlikely to be as good as Rohan's or Reid's but we still need both to improve if we are to contend.

I don't see Jack or Robinson as being more than bit part players for us this year. I think Robinson is probably just a touch short of the class needed for AFL footy. He's just too vanilla - which is great in ice cream but not so much in a footballer. I do think Jack's pace gives him a point of difference but he doesn't seem to know how to use it. He seems to get pulled into the packs too much, where his hands off the ground and through traffic just aren't clean enough. If he can learn to stay outside the packs and provide an outside option he may still make it but I am starting to doubt it.

[707]

Like your analysis Liz, fairly much in line with my thinking. I've long been vocal that we run out of AFL standard players about 18-19 on our list and therefore need a very good run with injuries and a number of fringe players or bolters to step up.

Missing the eight is a distinct possibility and not a disaster if we can find some players during a down year.

Always hopeful however - go Bloods!

[Scottee]

I tend to agree with most of what you have said Liz. I hope the coaches can change BJs mindset because he could be a good player if he can learn to adjust to the play better.

I'm hoping that Aliir or Dawson can become players during the year, Aliir because he can potentially be a line breaker and would have the athleticism to match most players, Dawson because of his super boot.

Reid is a real key in my mind because he CA take on the Goodies role and play as both a tall forward and a follower/midfielder.

I must say I have been very impressed with George and I now put him in the category of Mills and Heeney.

[Crusty]

I also mainly agree with Liz, but I'd add a few more predictions:
1. The end was swift for Ryan O'K. Same with Benny. Unless we have an appalling run with injuries, he won't play another senior game. DFA at the end of the year, sadly he'll try to get a gig at another club, unsuccessfully, and will retire.
2. Teddy's on a one year contract. It won't be renewed. Subject to fitness, he'll play Round 1 v Collingwood, but Talia will start in Round 2 v Carlton, and the plan will be to get as much game time into him as possible, so that he is first choice by the middle of the year. Ted will help coach.
3. In the same vein, we'll get as much game time into the youngsters, Papley, Hewitt, Leonardis, Rose, etc, particularly against Carlton, Essendon, Brisbane etc.

I see this as a year of consolidation, like taking a big breath before a big effort in 17 and 18.

Nevertheless I can't remember being as excited before Round 1. I'm particularly excited by Mills, Hewitt, Papley (will I be the first to call him the Smear after he cleans someone up in a tackle?) and Dawson.

The players we have obtained are in many ways better than those who have left.
Pike's knees were shot. Shaw only came good after the relief of announcing his retirement. Bird didn't play. Jetta was disinterested. Goodsey is the greatest champ, but time was against him. Still had flashes of brilliance, though.

I don't rate BJ or X.
Rose needs some muscle, he's too slight.

Anywhere between 5 and 8.

[goswannies]

I'm optimistic. I predict:
Mills for the Rising Star (can Heeney be nominated again?)
Buddy gets a Coleman
Hanners takes home a Brownlow (Sam Mitchell polls most votes but is suspended somewhere in the season)
Top 4 finish ... anything can happen from there!

[RogueSwan]

...
1. The end was swift for Ryan O'K. Same with Benny. Unless we have an appalling run with injuries, he won't play another senior game. DFA at the end of the year, sadly he'll try to get a gig at another club, unsuccessfully, and will retire.
....

Nah, Benny will come in to the team for someone, who unfortunately gets injured early August, and then goes on to star in the final quarter of the PF and drags the Swans into another GF.


Magpies (SCG) 50/50
Blues (ES) WIN
Giants (SCG) WIN
Crows (AO) WIN
Weagles (SCG) LOSS
Blions (Gabba) WIN
Bombers (SCG) WIN but Birdy will have a blinder
Tigers (MCG) 50/50 it's about time we changed the trend
Hawks (MCG) LOSS but an honourable one if there is such a thing.
Roos (SCG) 50/50 They are good but can be crap too
Suns (Metricon) 50/50 I think the Suns will be good this year.
Giants (SPO) LOSS
Dees (SCG) WIN
Dogs (SCG) 50/50
Cats (SS) LOSS
Hawks (SCG) LOSS
Blues (SCG) WIN
Dockers (DS) LOSS
Power (SCG) 50/50 or maybe 70/30?
Saints (ES) WIN
Roos (BA) 50/50
Tigers (SCG) WIN

9 wins
7 maybes (split that and say 4 wins)
Therefore 13 wins for the season and we finish 5-8, hopefully more 5 than 8

[0918330512]

I predict some incarnation of Matt80 will emerge on RWO at some point this season

[royboy42]

I predict that we will regret the loss of Doc Nathan Gibbs during this season.

Already concerned about Rohan and McVeigh continuing injuries...zip re Melican..Reid shadowing the team somewhere, but who knows? Little said re Ted...

[Mug Punter]

I also mainly agree with Liz, but I'd add a few more predictions:
1. The end was swift for Ryan O'K. Same with Benny. Unless we have an appalling run with injuries, he won't play another senior game. DFA at the end of the year, sadly he'll try to get a gig at another club, unsuccessfully, and will retire.
2. Teddy's on a one year contract. It won't be renewed. Subject to fitness, he'll play Round 1 v Collingwood, but Talia will start in Round 2 v Carlton, and the plan will be to get as much game time into him as possible, so that he is first choice by the middle of the year. Ted will help coach.
3. In the same vein, we'll get as much game time into the youngsters, Papley, Hewitt, Leonardis, Rose, etc, particularly against Carlton, Essendon, Brisbane etc.

I see this as a year of consolidation, like taking a big breath before a big effort in 17 and 18.

Nevertheless I can't remember being as excited before Round 1. I'm particularly excited by Mills, Hewitt, Papley (will I be the first to call him the Smear after he cleans someone up in a tackle?) and Dawson.

The players we have obtained are in many ways better than those who have left.
Pike's knees were shot. Shaw only came good after the relief of announcing his retirement. Bird didn't play. Jetta was disinterested. Goodsey is the greatest champ, but time was against him. Still had flashes of brilliance, though.

I don't rate BJ or X.
Rose needs some muscle, he's too slight.

Anywhere between 5 and 8.

I'm in agreement with most of your points and Liz's well considered post.

I actually feel quite nervous about this season because for the first time in ages I really do fear we could miss the 8, if it goes badly then it could go terribly pear-shaped.

A fit and healthy Buddy would help enormously. The main thing is his health long term as he has a few good years left in him but for me it is simple, Buddy kicks 50+ goals this year and we're up there with a chance. Any less and it's in the lap of the gods.

And could that mean Tippett finally delivering. I rated him last season in the role he did for the team but on the coin he is on we expect more. I know this is unfair on him but for the money we pay Tippett we could probably have Mummy, a third KPD (possibly even Frawley as we'd probably avoided that criminal trade ban) and maybe an additional squad player.

In terms of our next generation we are banking on both Mills and Heeney being 200 gamers and for mine they look like crackers.

It's a big season for our fringe players too. AA, X and Harry must surely be on notice that they need to step up this year and earn a contract, I'm not sure any of them have what it takes.

Towers have the potential to really be a handful but he needs to deliver consistently this year or he too could be trade bait. And I'll include Sam Reid here too, for mine he has only shown us glimpses, he's not a young lad anymore. Rohan likewise notwithstanding the injuries he has endured.

I expect our unsung players like Smith, Laidler, Lloyd and Rampe to continue to do the business this year but I'm concerned about where the new unheralded players will come from (probably because they are still unheralded I guess) - Papley I like, Newman I think is 12 months away and whilst Dawson has a nice kick neither him or Leonardis look near ready for AFL football.

Our long term future looks pretty good when you see the talent we now have locked in to long tern deals but there are a few question marks for mine. Mitchell has a real chance to play every game and stamp himself as our best inside mid this year and I think he may do it - whether we can afford to keep him is another matter and the fact he is the only required player coming off contract now is telling. I'm assuming we want to keep him and are seeing what we have in the kitty when the new CBA is announced later this year. I guess we'd get very good trade value from a Carlton if we did decide to trade. We haven't had to make a sacrificial lamb to the salary cap yet for Buddy (Jed doesn't count) but I fear Tom may have to take one for the team.

The backline is very very vulnerable. By the grace of god we haven't had either Ted or Reg out lately but we really miss that third tall a la LRT. Reid we don't seem to knows what to do with and I doubt Talia is that good. I see no prospects coming through so I guess we'll be going to the draft, trade and free agency tables at season end. I personally think we need three (one a long term KPD in their mid 20s, one for experienced cover and a first round draft pick).

[Crusty]

I agree Mug.
However, I see Reid in the backline. We need him there more than on the forward line. His goal kicking is rubbish and in the back line with the 10m rule he can hand off to a runner. He can become a defender like his brother. A settled role every week will help.
Buddy and Tippet/Sinclair will take the two best defenders. Tippet was impressive last year, and Buddy seems to be jumping out of his skin. They will get their goals. The key is Towers. He needs to make his presence felt. I'd also like to see Heeney and Parker rotating on the HFF. I reckon it's the smaller forwards who need to do the damage. 2012 we had no full forward, but multiple goal scorers each game. I'd like to see us get back to that. In other words, I don't want to rely on 50+ from Buddy.
Re Mitchell, he's a keeper. I put my faith in Pridham on this.

[Ludwig]

I also agree with Liz and others and my expectations as to ladder position are modest. I also find it to be a particularly hard to predict how most teams will go this year. What I would like to see is the development of our younger and fringe players. I think we should give Talia a decent go as he is the most likely to succeed Ted at this stage.

One thing I would like to add is the destiny of our 4th year players, or more precisely our 2012 draft. All 12 players from that draft, including Harry Cunningham who was upgraded to the senior list, are still playing AFL footy at some club. Not one has dropped out of AFL footy.


Membrey and Dick have gone to other clubs.
Marsh had dropped back to the rookie list.
It's a big year for our 1st pick Dean Towers who we will look to as a link man, especially if Reid is out for any extended period of time.
It's time for Tippett to become the complete player in handling the both his ruck role and a key target when forward.
As for our 6 rookie selections in 2012, Lloyd, XR, Rampe, Robinson, BJ and Naismith, we got a hell of a lot more than you would expect from a rookie draft. They will all be looking for big years, as well as upgraded rookie Cunningham, to show they've improved. A few will be fighting to stay on our list. Our longer term prospects may well rest on how well this group does.
A thumbs up to Kinnear Beatson, especially given that our 1st pick was #22.

[dimelb]

I predict that we will regret the loss of Doc Nathan Gibbs during this season.

Already concerned about Rohan and McVeigh continuing injuries...zip re Melican..Reid shadowing the team somewhere, but who knows? Little said re Ted...

Word is that the new doctor is a good'un, with a family pedigree in the job - father is a top surgeon.

[Scottee]

This is an exciting time to be a Swans supporter.

I have a feeling that the class of 2016 is going to be fondly remembered. The three H's; Heeney, Hewett and Hannebery, are going to be a really interesting combination along with Rose, Papley and Newman. Sinclair is a clear plus. Towers I think will be really good.I will be hoping to see Talia hit the magical 50 game milestone and suddenly improve vastly. This is also the year for Davis and Aliir come of age too. For the first time in a while we will have 22 players who can twist and turn and chase.

The big issue is going to be the collective impact of so many talented but young players coming up against hardened experienced teams. A plus though, is that Hewett is in his third year at the club and is well drilled in our ways. Similarly for Heeney and Mills. But there is nothing like the big time to find out the weaknesses.It will be really interesting to see.

I don't feel I have the right to expect great things from the club this year. Unfairly targetted by the AFL we have recruited as well as one could hope for and much better than the AFL would have hoped for, but the inability to trade in experienced players is likely to tell.

[Meg]

Does anyone know the name of the new doctor? I'm not aware that he/she has been 'introduced' but I may have missed it.

[Mug Punter]

I enjoyed the round table tonight, a shame that their other panels aren't all so professional. I was surprised by their rating of our list as still being the 4th best in the league and also our draw as 9th hardest was interesting.

I always like Cam Mooney's analysis and I think he hit the nail on the head and basically said we need significantly more our of Reid, Rohan and Tippett.

Forward structure was discussed which seems to align with a lot of our discussions - more flexibility, Buddy up the ground a bit more and Tippett on too much coin and too good to be wasted as a ruckman. I believe we need Buddy and KT to deliver at least 80 goals combined this year. Happy to see him play a bit of ruck but would hope it is closer to 60/40 for Sinclair and him in the ruck.

Defence also given special comment as was our terrible foot skills. I like the idea of McVeigh back on the half back line as a permanent fixture and even the idea of Hanners providing some stability though to be honest I think Mills will do just fine their as his disposal and decision making is just superb for someone that young.

They all seemed pretty bullish about Buddy and I reckon they'd be in the know so that was good to hear. Also like their wraps on our two super kids (Heeney and Mills) who will be something for us to really enjoy over the next few years as they become champions.

Their overall analysis aligned with mine in that I really don't know how we'll go this year but to be top 4 again we'll need a lot of things to go right.

[Plugger46]

Did people miss Tippo's back half of last year? Mooney (and I've heard others say similar things) said he's pretty much done nothing since leaving Adelaide. Yes he's on good money but that's complete crap. He couldn't have done much more in 2015. He was disappointing in 2014 and sensational in 2013.

[Mountain Man]

I think the 90 rotation limit will help our game plan and bring Tippett/Sinclair as a significant weapon.

50 or 60 goals between them working as stay-at-home (resting) full forwards and sharing the hard yards of ruck duties would be a good result. Buddy doing his thing for another 50 goals and you have the basis for some good scores

Then some contribution from a small forward (Heeney Rose or even Papasley?), and the rotating mid field (Parker/Kennedy/Jack/etc).

IMHO, the key is the combination of Tippett and Sinclair with a continuing presence near goal.

[Crusty]

David King pulled up an interesting stat last night: we are 2nd in the league for speed of rebounding, if I remember correctly. When the others expressed surprise he then said we see what we want to see.
Does the speed of rebounding reflect a penchant to bomb it into the forwards?
Is it a good thing, giving the opposition defence no time to organise?
Would it be better to lose some of that speed in return for more considered targeting?
I'm interested to hear your views.

Also, Mooney put Norf at top two and the flag - I just can't see that and reckon they will drop out of the eight.

[barry]

Even a mid table non vic side should expect to win all home games. Then pick up a few weeks on the road against dons, blues, lions...

15 or so wins. In and around 4th spot. Much like last year.

[swansrob]

David King pulled up an interesting stat last night: we are 2nd in the league for speed of rebounding, if I remember correctly. When the others expressed surprise he then said we see what we want to see.
Does the speed of rebounding reflect a penchant to bomb it into the forwards?
Is it a good thing, giving the opposition defence no time to organise?
Would it be better to lose some of that speed in return for more considered targeting?
I'm interested to hear your views.

Also, Mooney put Norf at top two and the flag - I just can't see that and reckon they will drop out of the eight.

I'd much rather we didn't bomb long in hope - it rarely comes off for us. Without any stats in front of me, I'd guess that our numbers for opposition marks in our forward 50 (and they're often uncontested) are pretty damning.

[chuckie]

I went to the game on Friday night and if that is our best side we can field with the current injury list we will be lucky to win a game before we play Essendon in round 7.
Our foot skills are terrible, our accuracy and Carlton's inaccuracy for goal was the different's on Friday, in general play they were the better team.

[waswan]

Im a bit more bullish.
We lost Pyke, Shaw, Goodes, Jetta.
Pyke is more than replaced, i think the same can be said with Shaw with the emergence of some younger guys. Lloyd/Mills/Cunningham/Heeney etc
Jetta goes the same as Shaw, he was a great player but totally coached out of significance, fwd/back/wing etc etc Did nothing without the ball at least Rohan chases
McVeigh when healthy will be out of the Mids and steady us down back and help us up forward with Jack who i think will be alot more fwd
Reid can play the 3rd/4th option as a fwd, would love to see him and buddy rotate up the ground
The 90 Cap will help us as we are grinders not full blown runners.
I like Longmire more than most but hopefully someone like Kirk can shake up our structure a bit so we arent so predictable.
Teddy is a big key for us hopefully Talia can play a bit but this day an age a key back can be covered with Team Defense.
Would love to see Mcglynn back he is our Barometer, his Midfield jolly is finished and will hopefully play 14-16 games as a fwd pocket.
I think Buddy will be fine and i hope will spend more time at HFF due to our new ruck combo having to rest forward.
He is a better field kick than goal kick and the SCG should see him further up the ground as 10m inside the wing he is a shot on goal
Its alot like 2012, we had 2 yrs of getting games into some young players, now is there chance to shine.
So i think we can do what we did last year and the real gains will need to be made in the coaches box, we have the personnel

[royboy42]

Ted not in 'permitted to play' list for reserves this weekend????

[Scottee]

Ted not in 'permitted to play' list for reserves this weekend????
What is this requirement for?

Does it mean all the other ressies players need permission too and are not playing?

[aguy]

Yes I wonder what it means too.

[chalbilto]

Ted not in 'permitted to play' list for reserves this weekend????

This seem to indicate that he wont be picked against Collingwood. However it may be that, if he is fit enough, they will select him without he playing in any practice matches. If this happens it will be a very risky selection.

[aguy]

Only five players allowed to play though ? Can hardly be called a Sydney swans Neafl team. That's what is confusing to me

[Meg]

Ugg has a likely explanation on the preseason practice games thread.

[aguy]

Ugg has a likely explanation on the preseason practice games thread.
Just saw it thanks meg. Makes sense

[CureTheSane]

Seems the Swans, who many 'experts' tip to drop out of the 8, are favorites up against the golden boys Collingwood in round 1.
A team the Swans have struggled with of late.
Underdogs, but favorites :clap:

[Legs Akimbo]

Reckon it's a down year but that is ok. We've been up for a long time. Finals would be a pleasant surprise and expecting to get some enjoyment from seeing next gen players coming through.

[CureTheSane]

Nothing more sure than the Swans winning the flag this year...

[BRISWAN]

+1

[Steve]

I think back to how I thought we were placed after 2004, 2011 and 2013 - and think we're probably in a similar position going into this year. Disappointing finishes to those seasons, it was easy to identify areas we were inferior to the top team(s) of the time etc - but (with a decent run with injuries) we stepped up in each of those subsequent seasons and made the GF.

Presumably Hawthorn will slip this year - if so I don't see why we are behind any of the other teams (assuming we're at full strength, and we are playing in a way that exploits our strengths).

It's funny how the experts go from one year saying how players like Goodes, Shaw and Pyke are past it and not contributing, to the next year saying how big a loss they are. If you break down the actual contribution Jetta made from week-to-week, he was just a highlight reel player who would have probably been in the best players half a dozen times in his whole career. I think we'll be the big winners out of his trade.

Our ball movement from defence is our biggest issue, but hopefully the new rule re: the 10m zone helps that - we chip it around because all our defenders are not confident in playing on and hitting a target, which is exacerbated when they have less space and time. But we're possibly only 1 good kick short of being OK - another 'go-to' player to get the ball into his hands like a Malceski to hit those targets.

Hopefully we find a way to maximise the (potential) potency of our forward line - it should be a nightmare for oppositions to match up on Franklin, Tippett/Sinclair, Reid and Heeney.

[dimelb]

The Footy Bible arrived today in The Age. Matthew Lloyd has us finishing 6th and Rohan Connolly has us finishing 9th. They both pick out our "ageing defenders", which apparently means that they know Ted is in his thirties, but Reg doesn't get there until later this year and seems to keep improving over the last couple of seasons. True, it's be a different story if Alex were fit, but I think we can manage well enough to continue being one of the better defending teams. They both rate our forwards and mids - as they should.

Both commentators pick WC as 1st and Hawthorn as 2nd (Lloyd) and 3rd (Connolly). The other top contender is Geelong, 3rd for Lloyd and 2nd for Connolly. Both have Port and GWS finishing outside the eight. Their biggest discrepancy is Collingwood - 11th for Lloyd and 4th for Connolly; I think Connolly is more on the money with that one.

[longmile]

Their biggest discrepancy is Collingwood - 11th for Lloyd and 4th for Connolly; I think Connolly is more on the money with that one.

Why do you think Collingwood will be so competitive this year?

[wolftone57]

Anything less than a top 4 finish will be an abject failure - we didn't recruit Buddy so we could make up the numbers in the 8.

The recruiting of Buddy might be the thing that just keeps us from making the top 4. No real trades allowed. Not enough salary cap space. But then again we have recruited good youngsters. Time will tell I think. Everyone talks about Heeney and Mills but two players don't make a side. When we had Diesel, Healy, Mitchell etc playing we had the stars but not enough team to win a premiership.

Team is what it is about and players like Hewett, Papley, Dawson, Towers, Jones, Leonardis, Newman, Talia, Rose, Cunningham, Sinclair, Rohan, Robinson, Aliir, Davis, BJ and X all have to stand up and be counted. Naismith and Galloway are long term prospects. Naismith will play this year and so will Toby I'm sure. Toby was pretty handy in the NAb and the only doubt on him is his lack of pace. But his delivery is generally sound and his tackling is fierce. He can also take a huge mark. Same with Naismith. Both Toby and big Sammy are second, third and fourth effort players, they never give up and tackle, bustle and bludgeon their opposition into submission. They also protect the small players.

What we need to see this year is as many players who looked like they are starting to come on given a chance to prove themselves. Papley, Dawson, Leonardis, Hewett & Newman all showed good composure in the NAB. Composure is an important word. It means they don't panic and they all looked very composed at AFL level. Yes it is only NAB but they were under more pressure than they would have ever been in any other comp and generally acquitted themselves well. BJ & Robbo were a little disappointing.

The NEAFL Trial. Apparently Abe Davis played very well. So did Aliir, Leonardis, Hewett & Newman. didn't see it maybe some of the people who did can report on the best players and hopefuls.

[dimelb]

Why do you think Collingwood will be so competitive this year?

They had a decent list with a few real stars. They have added Aish from Brisbane who could do very well if he is over his attack of second year blues, and Treloar from GWS who will have quite an impact if he is over his injuries. They have hopes the same will apply to Ben Reid.

I expect they'll improve on last year. I think getting to 4th is a bit optimistic, but I expect them to improve, hopefully not at our expense!

[wolftone57]

They had a decent list with a few real stars. They have added Aish from Brisbane who could do very well if he is over his attack of second year blues, and Treloar from GWS who will have quite an impact if he is over his injuries. They have hopes the same will apply to Ben Reid.

I expect they'll improve on last year. I think getting to 4th is a bit optimistic, but I expect them to improve, hopefully not at our expense!

Aish is an unknown quantity at this stage. Treloar I'll give you but a kid who played some pretty ordinary footy last year because he had an attitude problem. Umm I think not. Collingwood are like Cats, they are trying to buy a premiership by buying players from other clubs in the trade. That strategy can backfire because if you don't win that premiership you are left with a dirty great hole for a few years as all those players you bought to win the premiership retire. You have to keep topping up constantly and that means you have to do funny business with the salary cap. I can't see how Cats and now Hawks retain all their players within the cap. Brisbane had the northern Allowance but this lot don't. I hear there are a lot of secondary deals going on with several big clubs in Melbourne.

Apart from that.

I am not thinking we will have a huge year. another 2011 for me. this is a year of regeneration for me. By that I mean we blood a few good youngsters, develop a different style and develop the group as a whole. We have some very good talent on our list and now we have to give that talent the experience to be a contender in the next two years.

[mcs]

Both commentators pick WC as 1st and Hawthorn as 2nd (Lloyd) and 3rd (Connolly). The other top contender is Geelong, 3rd for Lloyd and 2nd for Connolly. Both have Port and GWS finishing outside the eight. Their biggest discrepancy is Collingwood - 11th for Lloyd and 4th for Connolly; I think Connolly is more on the money with that one.

I am be well wrong, but I honestly don't see the Cats as a top 4 side - even with Dangerfield and a few other handy recruits. Bottom half of the eight for me - I like Dangerfield as a player, but think his influence is overstated by some. He may well find another level at Geelong, but I'll wait till I see them start ripping teams a new one before they suddenly are flag contenders in my book.

[swansrob]

The Footy Bible arrived today in The Age. Matthew Lloyd has us finishing 6th and Rohan Connolly has us finishing 9th. They both pick out our "ageing defenders", which apparently means that they know Ted is in his thirties, but Reg doesn't get there until later this year and seems to keep improving over the last couple of seasons. True, it's be a different story if Alex were fit, but I think we can manage well enough to continue being one of the better defending teams. They both rate our forwards and mids - as they should.

Both commentators pick WC as 1st and Hawthorn as 2nd (Lloyd) and 3rd (Connolly). The other top contender is Geelong, 3rd for Lloyd and 2nd for Connolly. Both have Port and GWS finishing outside the eight. Their biggest discrepancy is Collingwood - 11th for Lloyd and 4th for Connolly; I think Connolly is more on the money with that one.

They pick out our aging defenders as a reason for us slipping, but figure Geelong (who have also lost 715 games experience through Stevie J, Stokes and Kelly) are now contenders with Taylor (10 days younger than Reg) and Enright (16 months older than Ted - will turn 35 during this year's finals series) down back?

[Doctor J.]

They pick out our aging defenders as a reason for us slipping, but figure Geelong (who have also lost 715 games experience through Stevie J, Stokes and Kelly) are now contenders with Taylor (10 days younger than Reg) and Enright (16 months older than Ted - will turn 35 during this year's finals series) down back?


The media are so much in love with Dangerfield, love is blind and Dangerfield will instantly solve all of Geelong's problems.

[CureTheSane]

I'm sure the perception from non Swans supporters was that Buddy, and to a lesser degree, Tippett were presented the same way (as solving all of the Swans problems)

[liz]

I'm sure the perception from non Swans supporters was that Buddy, and to a lesser degree, Tippett were presented the same way (as solving all of the Swans problems)

Yes and no. The year the Swans recruited Tippett they had just won the premiership. That was a reason for much of the outcry. How can the reigning premier afford to recruit one of the better forward options on the market? And when we recruited Buddy a year later, we'd still finished top 4, and our failure in the finals was largely attributed to a large end-of-season injury list.

While Geelong have been incredibly successful over the last decade, they weren't a finalist last year and, as pointed out earlier in this thread, have lost a comparable amount of experience as the Swans since last season.

[707]

Geelong have not only recruited brilliantly but they finally look to have a couple of very good players fit who have hardly played in recent seasons or late last year. I think Kardinia Park is a real fortress so 10-11 wins there gives them are big start to making top 4.

Dangerfield is not only a top 3-4 player in the comp but it's the cumulative effect he will have in their midfield by adding to the pool of top class talent. I have them top 4 along with Hawks and WCE, just not sure of the 4th team.

[chalbilto]

Geelong have not only recruited brilliantly but they finally look to have a couple of very good players fit who have hardly played in recent seasons or late last year. I think Kardinia Park is a real fortress so 10-11 wins there gives them are big start to making top 4.

Dangerfield is not only a top 3-4 player in the comp but it's the cumulative effect he will have in their midfield by adding to the pool of top class talent. I have them top 4 along with Hawks and WCE, just not sure of the 4th team.

Where is the faith? Surely it has to be Sydney.:smile:

[longmile]

Crystal ball: AFL.com.au's predictions for 2016 - AFL.com.au (http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-03-24/crystal-ball-predictions-for-2016)

We seem to be the biggest disparity in predictions, several have us finishing top 4 and even top 2 and another handful have us outside the 8. Definitely gonna be a bit of a wildcard this year I think, will be interesting to see.
Personally I have us around 6th or so.

[Red]

AFL Round Table previews Sydney Swans 2016 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gyh_AUeguSA)

[RogueSwan]

AFL Round Table previews Sydney Swans 2016 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gyh_AUeguSA)
Interesting. I agree with the general consensus that we could be anything this year. If we could get the best out of Reid and Rohan with everyone else playing their usual good games, we could be pushing for PF and GF again this year.

[waswan]

Now That was a good call if I do say so myself
Most followed the Media with their surface analysis and predicted Doom and Gloom
Some people need to get a clue, its not rocket science that a team with Parker, Hanna's, Kennedy, Mitchell, Buddy, Tippet, Jack, McVeigh, plus our youngsters are going to make finals

- - - Updated - - -


Im a bit more bullish.
We lost Pyke, Shaw, Goodes, Jetta.
Pyke is more than replaced, i think the same can be said with Shaw with the emergence of some younger guys. Lloyd/Mills/Cunningham/Heeney etc
Jetta goes the same as Shaw, he was a great player but totally coached out of significance, fwd/back/wing etc etc Did nothing without the ball at least Rohan chases
McVeigh when healthy will be out of the Mids and steady us down back and help us up forward with Jack who i think will be alot more fwd
Reid can play the 3rd/4th option as a fwd, would love to see him and buddy rotate up the ground
The 90 Cap will help us as we are grinders not full blown runners.
I like Longmire more than most but hopefully someone like Kirk can shake up our structure a bit so we arent so predictable.
Teddy is a big key for us hopefully Talia can play a bit but this day an age a key back can be covered with Team Defense.
Would love to see Mcglynn back he is our Barometer, his Midfield jolly is finished and will hopefully play 14-16 games as a fwd pocket.
I think Buddy will be fine and i hope will spend more time at HFF due to our new ruck combo having to rest forward.
He is a better field kick than goal kick and the SCG should see him further up the ground as 10m inside the wing he is a shot on goal
Its alot like 2012, we had 2 yrs of getting games into some young players, now is there chance to shine.
So i think we can do what we did last year and the real gains will need to be made in the coaches box, we have the personnel

[CureTheSane]

Nothing more sure than the Swans winning the flag this year...

:)

[aardvark]

Some people might be getting a little ahead of themselves........:wink:

[CureTheSane]

That was from 18th March :)

[WauchopeAnalyst]

Scary moment. Spending too much time on Big Footy.
http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160601/dbc11737d1a090449028b4b137f4a902.jpg

Sent from my SM-G900I using Tapatalk

[Zlatorog]

Scary moment. Spending too much time on Big Footy.
http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160601/dbc11737d1a090449028b4b137f4a902.jpg

Sent from my SM-G900I using Tapatalk
That's next on Eddie's to do list!:wink:

[Mug Punter]

I'm in agreement with most of your points and Liz's well considered post.

I actually feel quite nervous about this season because for the first time in ages I really do fear we could miss the 8, if it goes badly then it could go terribly pear-shaped.

A fit and healthy Buddy would help enormously. The main thing is his health long term as he has a few good years left in him but for me it is simple, Buddy kicks 50+ goals this year and we're up there with a chance. Any less and it's in the lap of the gods.

And could that mean Tippett finally delivering. I rated him last season in the role he did for the team but on the coin he is on we expect more. I know this is unfair on him but for the money we pay Tippett we could probably have Mummy, a third KPD (possibly even Frawley as we'd probably avoided that criminal trade ban) and maybe an additional squad player.

In terms of our next generation we are banking on both Mills and Heeney being 200 gamers and for mine they look like crackers.

It's a big season for our fringe players too. AA, X and Harry must surely be on notice that they need to step up this year and earn a contract, I'm not sure any of them have what it takes.

Towers have the potential to really be a handful but he needs to deliver consistently this year or he too could be trade bait. And I'll include Sam Reid here too, for mine he has only shown us glimpses, he's not a young lad anymore. Rohan likewise notwithstanding the injuries he has endured.

I expect our unsung players like Smith, Laidler, Lloyd and Rampe to continue to do the business this year but I'm concerned about where the new unheralded players will come from (probably because they are still unheralded I guess) - Papley I like, Newman I think is 12 months away and whilst Dawson has a nice kick neither him or Leonardis look near ready for AFL football.

Our long term future looks pretty good when you see the talent we now have locked in to long tern deals but there are a few question marks for mine. Mitchell has a real chance to play every game and stamp himself as our best inside mid this year and I think he may do it - whether we can afford to keep him is another matter and the fact he is the only required player coming off contract now is telling. I'm assuming we want to keep him and are seeing what we have in the kitty when the new CBA is announced later this year. I guess we'd get very good trade value from a Carlton if we did decide to trade. We haven't had to make a sacrificial lamb to the salary cap yet for Buddy (Jed doesn't count) but I fear Tom may have to take one for the team.

The backline is very very vulnerable. By the grace of god we haven't had either Ted or Reg out lately but we really miss that third tall a la LRT. Reid we don't seem to knows what to do with and I doubt Talia is that good. I see no prospects coming through so I guess we'll be going to the draft, trade and free agency tables at season end. I personally think we need three (one a long term KPD in their mid 20s, one for experienced cover and a first round draft pick).

Oh how negative I seem now :)

Buddy kicks 50+ goals this year and we're up there with a chance. Any less and it's in the lap of the gods, how about a sweet century you idiot:)

[Plugger46]

Give yourselves a pat on the back later in the year.

[Mug Punter]

Give yourselves a pat on the back later in the year.

I agree, it's early days and still plenty of time for us to fall off the perch. But I do think it is the most even comp in years and we right in it and that's all you can ask at the turn.

A loss on Saturday to the Suns (and they have massive ins) and we are back to earth

[Ludwig]

We certainly have performed better than expected, mainly because nearly all of the uncertainties have fallen on the positive side of the ledger, with a few bonuses like Papley and Hewett to top things off.

It's worth taking into consideration that our relative position in the league this year has a lot to do with how some of the mighty have fallen, most notably Freo, and Hawthorn have really come back to the back. West Coast, my own pick for premiers at the start of the year, have been disappointing considering what they showed last year. Several teams, like GWS, Geelong and Adelaide have improved. So we find ourselves in a competition where no club has elevated to the level of Hawthorn, but rather Hawthorn and those threatening to be as good as Hawthorn are looking more like a normal team that makes plenty of skills errors, just like us.

The main reason we are doing well is that we've fought hard in every game and haven't put in too many lackluster quarters.

[RogueSwan]

West Coast's soft fixture from last year is showing through this year. A similar thing happened to Power after their surging year.

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[dimelb]

Here's Rohan Connolly's take on it:

Sydney Swans suit a well-worn premiership script (http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/afl-2016-sydney-swans-suit-a-wellworn-premiership-script-20160601-gp9bw1.html)

Apart from forgetting Hiscox and Aliir, it's fairly close to what we are saying overall.

[bloodbrother]

Here's Rohan Connolly's take on it:

Sydney Swans suit a well-worn premiership script (http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/afl-2016-sydney-swans-suit-a-wellworn-premiership-script-20160601-gp9bw1.html)

Apart from forgetting Hiscox and Aliir, it's fairly close to what we are saying overall.

we will play Adelaide in the gf for the flag