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Markwebbos
14th July 2021, 02:43 PM
Here it is, a thread all about umpiring.

Go nuts!!

I reckon it will give the Tippett-thread™️ a run for it’s money

KSAS
14th July 2021, 02:54 PM
There are 2 types of people in footy my friend. Those with the footy in their hands and those who blow the whistle.

bloodspirit
14th July 2021, 03:07 PM
Here it is, a thread all about umpiring.

Go nuts!!

I reckon it will give the Tippett-thread™️ a run for it’s money

May your dream of chat regarding umpiring being primarily focused in this thread be realised.

Matty10
14th July 2021, 05:48 PM
May your dream of chat regarding umpiring being primarily focused in this thread be realised.

I think Markwebbos might have to give it a bump come game day to keep it kicking along.

In regards to umpiring, I regard the view that they make no difference to a game’s outcome as being ridiculous. They might not be the primary reason for a win or loss in the vast majority of games, but the power of a single error (howler, if you will) in a tight contest can make all the difference. It has played out that way this year on more than one occasion.

If they made no difference, as some people suggest, we would simply not have them.

Bangalore Swans
14th July 2021, 05:58 PM
I’m in here for solutions.

What about an umpiring review system for the coaches:

I would propose 2 reviews per half. The coach pushes a button and tells the bunker what decision to review. At the next mark or stoppage the decision is reviewed and an outcome given.

An example would be Luke Beverage challenging that McCartin push in the back in the 1st quarter. The review would have given the Bulldogs the easy shot at goal.

The coaches get a total of two reviews a half and they only get two regardless of the outcome.

Matty10
14th July 2021, 06:29 PM
What about an umpiring review system for the coaches:

You’ve mentioned this before. It could work, but I think it would just add to the frustration (like it often does in the NFL).

Giving boundary umpires the ability to communicate more effectively with the controlling umpire (using mic or flags) is another option. The problem with is that you simply have another voice from another angle (potentially bringing in more subjectivity).

Not sure how to fix the problem. Umpiring is a hard job. My biggest gripe is when they guess (i.e. just assume a player infringed without actually seeing the infringement).

I’m not sure what the resting or non-controlling umpires have been doing lately, but there are far too many blocking or shepherding infringements that are not being called when the ball is kicked inside 50. It’s almost like they are too concerned with the play downfield and ignore what’s in front of them.

Maybe it really is just a training issue (in general, not a rule-of-the-week intrusion - which pisses me off no end). Would full time umpires fix this?

707
14th July 2021, 06:44 PM
I want to refer the two frees that ended in the Dogs kicking two goals reviewed, both umpire number 14 whistles. Bunker responds with incorrect whistle!

I think what frustrates everyone is paying very minor infringements that should be just play on, plus when one side gets a good run both ways on these minor infringements.

What about the one highlighted on OTC where the ump paid high contact but the recipient had lost his feet and slipped his head into an almost stationary player, umpire was completely wrong in interpretation.

How about the umps start pinging the plague of throwing that's crept into our game since ......... 2016!

Sandridge
14th July 2021, 07:06 PM
Some interesting free kick statistics from 2016 from https://afltables.com/afl/stats/frees.html#2016

In 2016, the Western Bulldogs played 26 games.
They won the free kick count 20 times.
They drew the free kick count twice.
They lost the free kick count 4 times.
They won the free kick count in all four finals they played.
Their free kick differential for their 4 finals games was Plus 31.
Their free kick differential for the whole season was Plus 112.

In 2016, the Sydney Swans played 26 games.
We won the free kick count 4 times.
We drew the free kick count 3 times.
We lost the free kick count 19 times.
We lost the free kick count in all four finals we played.
Our free kick differential for the 4 finals games was Minus 23.
Our free kick differential for the whole season was Minus 51.

Matty10
14th July 2021, 07:09 PM
What about the one highlighted on OTC where the ump paid high contact but the recipient had lost his feet and slipped his head into an almost stationary player, umpire was completely wrong in interpretation.

I thought it was the other way around, and the umpire got it right. Didn’t he run in saying “you slipped, you slipped“ as a way of justifying why the player didn’t get the free - or was there another instance of the same thing with a different outcome?

crackedactor 01
14th July 2021, 07:18 PM
I want to refer the two frees that ended in the Dogs kicking two goals reviewed, both umpire number 14 whistles. Bunker responds with incorrect whistle!

I think what frustrates everyone is paying very minor infringements that should be just play on, plus when one side gets a good run both ways on these minor infringements.

What about the one highlighted on OTC where the ump paid high contact but the recipient had lost his feet and slipped his head into an almost stationary player, umpire was completely wrong in interpretation.

How about the umps start pinging the plague of throwing that's crept into our game since ......... 2016!

What really concerns me is the constant status quo of umpiring. Since that horrible day that I spent over thousand dollars watching the 2016 GF I have kept track of the umpiring. We always get screwed over by free kicks by Hawthorn and Bulldogs. We usually get the better umpiring when we play Essendon or the Giants. If they is no bias why are the end results are nearly always the same?

stevoswan
14th July 2021, 07:35 PM
Re: coach decision reviews, I don't trust the AFL to review anything. Goal reviews should be a warning to all on the dangers of more reviews. The umpires just have to become fully professional and face more scrutiny and consequences for poor performances. I'm not sure what form that could take in the AFL.....as the scrutiny could still be Vic-centric, like everything else.

In the VFL days, poor umpiring performances would be punished with a move to one of the country leagues for a week or two for penance before returning to the big time in Melbourne.....leading to the phrase "He'll be up the country next week!" when referring to an umpire who was having a bad day. Alas, this wouldn't work in a national league.

One thing would be to stop the continual knee-jerk tinkering from the 'Rules Committee' which is confusing not only fans but the umpires as well..... and is adding even more grey areas to the game. It would be a challenge for the umpires to keep up.

If only there was a definitive and 100% uncheatable "integrity and honesty test" available to all high level umpires and only those who get a 100% pass become AFL umpires.....that would be a start.:tongue: But even then, mistakes would still be made. In a game where most rules are interpretive, human frailties will come into play and mistakes, deliberate or not, will be made.

It's impossible to know exactly how to remedy this blight of crap/biased AFL umpiring.....considering the stranglehold Victoria has on the make up of the league.

stevoswan
14th July 2021, 07:50 PM
I thought it was the other way around, and the umpire got it right. Didn’t he run in saying “you slipped, you slipped“ as a way of justifying why the player didn’t get the free - or was there another instance of the same thing with a different outcome?

Correct....the other instance (which was what 707 was probably referring to) was where the umpire told the offending player "He slipped, he slipped and you caught him high"......it was laughable and the opposite decision of the identical later situation you talked of. His own explanation exposed himself as being wrong. I saw both and when I saw the second correct interpretation, I screamed "what about the other night.....it was the opposite!". I just shook my head in disbelief and then disappointment.....at the sorry state of current AFL umpiring.

Nico
14th July 2021, 08:15 PM
When Shuey dropped the knees against us and was not awarded the free I thought, finally. But then Hunter got away with it against us. He blatantly dropped the knees when our player was about to make contact, almost sliding sideways. George Hewett has been a serial offender but appears to have got it out of his game.

Selwood is also the serial offender. With all the issues with concussion I don't get why players want to put themselves into a head high tackle.

Is a very tough one for umpires to interpret because of the head high rules, but if they start paying a free for HTB it will stop.

longmile
14th July 2021, 08:16 PM
If we have an umpiring containment thread can we have a praise Warner, diss Rowbottom containment thread too?

dejavoodoo44
14th July 2021, 08:52 PM
When Shuey dropped the knees against us and was not awarded the free I thought, finally. But then Hunter got away with it against us. He blatantly dropped the knees when our player was about to make contact, almost sliding sideways. George Hewett has been a serial offender but appears to have got it out of his game.

Selwood is also the serial offender. With all the issues with concussion I don't get why players want to put themselves into a head high tackle.

Is a very tough one for umpires to interpret because of the head high rules, but if they start paying a free for HTB it will stop.

With the Selwood style of milking a high contact free, the initial contact is usually around chest/forearm level. Selwood and his imitators, then push their arms outwards and drop their body. This means that while contact to the head is made, it's usually a glancing blow: so there's little chance of receiving the sort of forceful blow, that would cause the violent whiplash that leads to concussion.

To me, it's a totally cynical method used by some players, to take advantage of a rule that was designed to protect all players. And I'm just a little bit surprised, that more players don't think to themselves, "Well, stuff ya, I'm going to hit you properly, next time."

neilfws
14th July 2021, 09:18 PM
I reckon it will give the Tippett-thread™️ a run for it’s money

I hope so! I'm happy to see this thread, and I hope we can divert people here when umpiring discussion threatens to overrun a match thread.

So to continue this discussion:


Did you read and assess the rest of my post ? I ask because you seem to be fixated on statistics and haven’t addressed my question of the potential impact that debatable or dubious decisions have on players and the flow of games.
I understand that this is not something that is quantifiable however I still believe it has an impact on games.
If you feel that free kicks have no impact in any way on games and results then we can happily agree to disagree.

It's true, I am fixated on statistics - it's kind of what I do for a living. Umpiring decisions are an emotive subject, debating them is part and parcel of the fun of being a footy fan and that's great! But I hope there is room for those of us who take a step back, a deep breath and try to be a bit more objective about it all, even when it's our own team.

I don't feel that free kicks have no impact on games (though I can see how one or two of my posts might be interpreted that way). But I do think that there are very, very few games where the result hung on an umpiring decision. And I also think that of the many factors that can influence the outcome of a game, free kicks are nearer the bottom of the list than the top.

I'd like to recommend the book Footballistics (https://www.amazon.com.au/Footballistics-James-Coventry-ebook/dp/B078QRHMMP) to anyone who enjoys a bit of data analysis. There's an entire chapter in there on home ground advantage and umpire bias. It's complicated...but basically concludes that whilst there is evidence for unconscious umpire bias, it amounts on average to a difference of a few points per game at most. Now you might argue that some games are won and lost by a few points and you'd be right - but that would be to ignore all the other things that went on in the game.

I'd also recommend following the Twitter hashtag for any AFL game (not for long though or your brain will melt). You'll find that fans of every single team are convinced that the umpires are against them, the opponent always gets the rub of the green and even that there is a league conspiracy against their success. I'm afraid Swans fans are nothing special in that regard :)

Anyway: I'm glad to have this thread, and I'll be using it to try and convince everyone that the free kick differential is a useless number with no bearing on anything!

Ludwig
14th July 2021, 09:33 PM
Can we do away with the swear filter for this thread? It should really spice things up.

We can have some full frontal anger venting that might have some positive psychological effects as well.

Bloods05
14th July 2021, 09:36 PM
I’m in here for solutions.

What about an umpiring review system for the coaches:

I would propose 2 reviews per half. The coach pushes a button and tells the bunker what decision to review. At the next mark or stoppage the decision is reviewed and an outcome given.

An example would be Luke Beverage challenging that McCartin push in the back in the 1st quarter. The review would have given the Bulldogs the easy shot at goal.

The coaches get a total of two reviews a half and they only get two regardless of the outcome.

In a word: no.

dejavoodoo44
14th July 2021, 11:51 PM
I hope so! I'm happy to see this thread, and I hope we can divert people here when umpiring discussion threatens to overrun a match thread.

So to continue this discussion:



It's true, I am fixated on statistics - it's kind of what I do for a living. Umpiring decisions are an emotive subject, debating them is part and parcel of the fun of being a footy fan and that's great! But I hope there is room for those of us who take a step back, a deep breath and try to be a bit more objective about it all, even when it's our own team.

I don't feel that free kicks have no impact on games (though I can see how one or two of my posts might be interpreted that way). But I do think that there are very, very few games where the result hung on an umpiring decision. And I also think that of the many factors that can influence the outcome of a game, free kicks are nearer the bottom of the list than the top.

I'd like to recommend the book Footballistics (https://www.amazon.com.au/Footballistics-James-Coventry-ebook/dp/B078QRHMMP) to anyone who enjoys a bit of data analysis. There's an entire chapter in there on home ground advantage and umpire bias. It's complicated...but basically concludes that whilst there is evidence for unconscious umpire bias, it amounts on average to a difference of a few points per game at most. Now you might argue that some games are won and lost by a few points and you'd be right - but that would be to ignore all the other things that went on in the game.

I'd also recommend following the Twitter hashtag for any AFL game (not for long though or your brain will melt). You'll find that fans of every single team are convinced that the umpires are against them, the opponent always gets the rub of the green and even that there is a league conspiracy against their success. I'm afraid Swans fans are nothing special in that regard :)

Anyway: I'm glad to have this thread, and I'll be using it to try and convince everyone that the free kick differential is a useless number with no bearing on anything!

I did enjoy Footballistics. I enjoyed James Coventry's other football book, Time and Space, even more. If you haven't read it, it's essentially looking at various innovations in the game, over the last 160 years or so: with the focus on rule changes to speed up the game and coaching tactics that aimed to give players time and space.

Meg
15th July 2021, 12:51 AM
I hope so! I'm happy to see this thread, and I hope we can divert people here when umpiring discussion threatens to overrun a match thread.

So to continue this discussion:



It's true, I am fixated on statistics - it's kind of what I do for a living. Umpiring decisions are an emotive subject, debating them is part and parcel of the fun of being a footy fan and that's great! But I hope there is room for those of us who take a step back, a deep breath and try to be a bit more objective about it all, even when it's our own team.

....

Anyway: I'm glad to have this thread, and I'll be using it to try and convince everyone that the free kick differential is a useless number with no bearing on anything!

Thanks Neil, I really enjoy your contributions.

Legs Akimbo
15th July 2021, 03:41 AM
Great post Neil. I've bought the book and look forward to reading. I'd suggest the 2016 grand final is an example where a bias had a very big impact on a game. Also the Hawthorn game this year. A statistical analysis doesn’t capture concepts like momentum. Without having read the book yet, i doubt they have considered that the umpiring is in a feedback loop i.e. players go into their shell when they cop a series of poor decisions. Complex human systems often defy statistical analysis, and modelling, at least with the usual techniques. I'll read before judging.

Re people all favouring their team, not surprising. Not sure what that tells us about the statistics though. Also, my view is that the umpiring at present is not just biased in some games, but just really poor. It's a situation of the AFLs making by constant rule changes and using advisories on interpretations as a mechanism for shaping the game's flow. I'd hate the be an umpire. Its more art than science and the value of art is in the eye of the beholder.

Faunac8
15th July 2021, 09:19 AM
Unsurprisingly given my previous posts I totally agree with you Legs Akimbo ( why are our arms never Akimbo by the way )
“A statistical analysis doesn’t capture concepts like momentum” this is a simple summary of the point I was trying to convey.
Statistics in football provide us with a very useful tool to compare previous performance but they can’t capture the potential performance that the awarding of free kicks may or may not affect.
Of course in reality nothing can and that’s why many like to ponder the what if’s and attribute much more influence to decisions that we feel have impacted on our team.
That is why no amount of statistical data will ever convince me that umpiring decisions had little or no impact on the 2016 GF
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

KTigers
15th July 2021, 10:22 AM
Re the 2016 GF (and Stevo will probably self combust down there in Vic when he reads this) I just don't think 12 free kicks are worth
22 points. 12 additional kicks are about 5.5% of the total number of Bulldogs kicks in that game. 22 points (their winning margin) is
25% of their entire score. And if they are then 10 free kicks (the Dogs differential in their prelim against GWS) must be worth 6
points (their winning margin in that game). I can see how a free kick can reverse the direction the ball is heading, and the momentum
thing, but 22 points is a lot to catch up. 6 points isn't though, and so I think the team that was really robbed in 2016 were the Giants.
A Giants-Swans GF that year, well we'll never know...
The above theory has given me "closure" over 2016. With my battery of psychologists I am still working on "resolving" 2014, but
even that process has been complicated by the sight of large birds (that may be eagles) in the sky, and the sight of Wayne Carey
bringing back memories of earlier and still unresolved crises from 2006 and 1996 respectively. It's been a challenging 25 years
I tell you.

mcs
15th July 2021, 10:34 AM
Re the 2016 GF (and Stevo will probably self combust down there in Vic when he reads this) I just don't think 12 free kicks are worth 22 points.
12 additional kicks are about 5.5% of the total number of Bulldogs kicks in that game. 22 points (their winning margin) is 25% of their entire
score. And if they are then 10 free kicks (the Dogs differential in their prelim against GWS) must be worth 6 points (their winning margin in
that game). I can see how a free kick can reverse the direction the ball is heading, and the momentum thing, but 22 points is a lot to catch up.
6 points isn't though, and so I think the team that was really robbed in 2016 were the Giants. A Giants-Swans GF that year, well we'll never know...

No doubt the giants were @@@@@@ over royally too.

But I think the 22 point margin masks the impact of the umpiring that day somewhat too. We were within what 6 or 7 points with around 5 minutes of in play time left in the game. They kicked those couple of late goals to blow the margin, when the damage had already been done.

The issue more broadly with free kick counts is they only capture the actual free kicks given. In many games it those that aren't given that should be given (that Grand Final being a good example). So the statistics only capture part of the story.

barry
15th July 2021, 10:56 AM
Shouting at the umpires is like shouting at clouds.

Markwebbos
15th July 2021, 11:01 AM
Shouting at the umpires is like shouting at clouds.

Please explain

KTigers
15th July 2021, 11:28 AM
No doubt the giants were @@@@@@ over royally too.

But I think the 22 point margin masks the impact of the umpiring that day somewhat too. We were within what 6 or 7 points with around 5 minutes of in play time left in the game. They kicked those couple of late goals to blow the margin, when the damage had already been done.

The issue more broadly with free kick counts is they only capture the actual free kicks given. In many games it those that aren't given that should be given (that Grand Final being a good example). So the statistics only capture part of the story.

These comments haven't helped me MCS. I had put 2016 behind me. Now I've got to ring my psych team and tell them I need to go back
to sessions five days a week. There's only so many of their kids I can afford to put through private school.

Bill Posters
15th July 2021, 11:36 AM
No doubt the giants were @@@@@@ over royally too.

But I think the 22 point margin masks the impact of the umpiring that day somewhat too. We were within what 6 or 7 points with around 5 minutes of in play time left in the game. They kicked those couple of late goals to blow the margin, when the damage had already been done.

The issue more broadly with free kick counts is they only capture the actual free kicks given. In many games it those that aren't given that should be given (that Grand Final being a good example). So the statistics only capture part of the story.

There's also the issue of where the free kicks are given. I'm convinced that often one team are given soft frees in front of goal, then late in the match somehow the free kick tally gets evened up with free kicks in the middle of the field that have no impact.

If we're thinking about technical solutions, what about a system similar to boxing? Where there are, say, 5 umpires watching the footage on TV. Then if 4 of them hit the "free kick" button within a second then a free kick is blown? Given the on-field umpires seem to miss a whole bunch that we can see on TV this might be a solution. Would be interesting to try.

barry
15th July 2021, 11:43 AM
Please explain

Clouds are independent bodies of water molecules that completely ignore what any human says to them. A bit like umpires.

KTigers
15th July 2021, 11:53 AM
Clouds are independent bodies of water molecules that completely ignore what any human says to them. A bit like umpires.

I like clouds. Some of them are quite pretty. Comparing them to AFL umpires is just really mean Barry.

Markwebbos
15th July 2021, 12:12 PM
Clouds are independent bodies of water molecules that completely ignore what any human says to them. A bit like umpires.

Thanks

Matty10
15th July 2021, 02:04 PM
But I think the 22 point margin masks the impact of the umpiring that day somewhat too. We were within what 6 or 7 points with around 5 minutes of in play time left in the game. They kicked those couple of late goals to blow the margin, when the damage had already been done.

Spot on. You can’t look at the final margin and then the free kick count to get an accurate reflection in that game. Teams take risks when they are behind late in the game that they may not have otherwise taken. It should also be taken into account that the missed below the knees free kick to Jack may well have contributed or led to the later missed free and injury on Hannebery.

Having said all that, we don’t know how the Bulldogs would have responded to a game impacted by more reasonable umpiring. They may well have won. We were just robbed of the opportunity to see that play out.

neilfws
15th July 2021, 05:22 PM
Thanks Neil, I really enjoy your contributions.

Likewise Meg!

Mel_C
15th July 2021, 09:42 PM
In the VFL days, poor umpiring performances would be punished with a move to one of the country leagues for a week or two for penance before returning to the big time in Melbourne.....leading to the phrase "He'll be up the country next week!" when referring to an umpire who was having a bad day. Alas, this wouldn't work in a national league.


I remember something from a few years back when we played Carlton at Marvel stadium...(I think it was called Telstra Dome back then). Razor was umpiring and he was giving frees to Carlton, especifically to Judd. At half time as the umpires were coming off the ground near where I was sitting, I yelled out to Razor that he would be umpiring the Reserves the next week. He took it well and gave me a smirk.

Blood Fever
15th July 2021, 09:47 PM
I remember something from a few years back when we played Carlton at Marvel stadium...(I think it was called Telstra Dome back then). Razor was umpiring and he was giving frees to Carlton, especifically to Judd. At half time as the umpires were coming off the ground near where I was sitting, I yelled out to Razor that he would be umpiring the Reserves the next week. He took it well and gave me a smirk.

Of course. He was the centre of attention at that moment.

joeykanga
15th July 2021, 10:17 PM
Thanks

Maybe he means that they disappear and you’re left shouting at yourself and then they reappear again magically like Ray Chamberlain ..
I swear I need counselling ..getting flashbacks just seeing him in tonight’s non swans match

MattW
15th July 2021, 10:54 PM
Here it is, a thread all about umpiring.

Go nuts!!

I reckon it will give the Tippett-thread™️ a run for it’s money

Thanks for this Mark. I doubt I'll ever read this thread, but I'm very glad it exists.

Markwebbos
16th July 2021, 01:23 PM
Thanks for this Mark. I doubt I'll ever read this thread, but I'm very glad it exists.

Likewise

bennyfabulous
29th July 2021, 10:08 PM
@@@@ing Chamberlain again this weekend. Rubbish umpire & rubbish human. I can defintiely see the need for this thread for me this week. (Particularly as my wife is an Essendon supporter. My "@@@@ umpiring" outbursts won't be agreed with this week)

Legs Akimbo
30th July 2021, 06:55 AM
Ok so reading footballistics...

On umpiring bias...

"It means that umpire bias accounts for approximately 40% of all home-ground advantage in the AFL. It is difficult to imagine any other single factor – whether that be the benefit of familiarity with the venue, or the rigours of travel faced by the visitors – could exceed an effect of that size. Moskowitz and Wertheim’s hypothesis that umpire bias is the most significant contributor to home advantage therefore rings true for the Australian game. That is not to say, of course, that umpires in any way intend to favour home teams. But perhaps it is time for the league to at least acknowledge the noise of affirmation, so that it can train its officials to deal with it."

I note that intuition is there is team bias. The league table of frees for and against would seem to support this. The book doesn't that.

https://afltables.com/afl/stats/frees.html

The for against ratio should be a normal distribution...

I'm going to look at this in more detail on the weekend.

Faunac8
30th July 2021, 09:01 AM
Ok so reading footballistics...

On umpiring bias...

"It means that umpire bias accounts for approximately 40% of all home-ground advantage in the AFL. It is difficult to imagine any other single factor – whether that be the benefit of familiarity with the venue, or the rigours of travel faced by the visitors – could exceed an effect of that size. Moskowitz and Wertheim’s hypothesis that umpire bias is the most significant contributor to home advantage therefore rings true for the Australian game. That is not to say, of course, that umpires in any way intend to favour home teams. But perhaps it is time for the league to at least acknowledge the noise of affirmation, so that it can train its officials to deal with it."

I note that intuition is there is team bias. The league table of frees for and against would seem to support this. The book doesn't that.

https://afltables.com/afl/stats/frees.html

The for against ratio should be a normal distribution...

I'm going to look at this in more detail on the weekend.

I think that the fact that only one team doesn’t finish in front for frees for at home games and only one current team finishes in front for frees for during away games indicates that there is some unconscious umpire bias created by the crowd.
Having said that however it’s hard as a supporter not to think some umpires just don’t like us 😢

barry
30th July 2021, 10:46 AM
Ok so reading footballistics...

On umpiring bias...

"It means that umpire bias accounts for approximately 40% of all home-ground advantage in the AFL. It is difficult to imagine any other single factor – whether that be the benefit of familiarity with the venue, or the rigours of travel faced by the visitors – could exceed an effect of that size. Moskowitz and Wertheim’s hypothesis that umpire bias is the most significant contributor to home advantage therefore rings true for the Australian game. That is not to say, of course, that umpires in any way intend to favour home teams. But perhaps it is time for the league to at least acknowledge the noise of affirmation, so that it can train its officials to deal with it."

I note that intuition is there is team bias. The league table of frees for and against would seem to support this. The book doesn't that.

https://afltables.com/afl/stats/frees.html

The for against ratio should be a normal distribution...

I'm going to look at this in more detail on the weekend.

Wouldnt the hub games last year and this year, played at neutral venues prove or disprove crowd influence umpire bias.

I think its a relatively small factor. But I think umpires have teams they are bias too.

longmile
30th July 2021, 11:46 AM
There is home ground advantage and then there is AFL/VLF/media bias

cherub
30th July 2021, 01:29 PM
How to you estimate "home ground" advantage when a Melbourne-based team can be an "away" team at Docklands or the MCG? Even if they have more crowd tickets, they can be shared with rels and friends so the crowd disproportion is less significant than for interstate teams and games.

Goal Sneak
2nd August 2021, 09:40 PM
I haven't seen any mention of the goal review which resulted in the original "touched off the boot" call from the field umpire being overruled.

Mills had said he touched it, even "Zaccy" gestured to his teammates that it was touched. Watching the replays, there was no definitive evidence that suggested that they should overturn the decision, yet they did.

I haven't seen the video umpire do this before, did I miss something?

bennyfabulous
2nd August 2021, 10:22 PM
I haven't seen any mention of the goal review which resulted in the original "touched off the boot" call from the field umpire being overruled.

Mills had said he touched it, even "Zaccy" gestured to his teammates that it was touched. Watching the replays, there was no definitive evidence that suggested that they should overturn the decision, yet they did.

I haven't seen the video umpire do this before, did I miss something?

NO YOU DIDNT! Ridiculous!

Markwebbos
3rd September 2021, 10:27 AM
Interesting comment from Barrett this morning:

IF ... the Bulldogs got a very nice run from the umpires in the 2016 finals series, and just ask John Longmire for his thoughts on that year's Grand Final ...
THEN ... they're off to a flyer again in the 2021 series. Regardless, they absolutely belted the Bombers in Launceston, and looked to have returned to being the Dogs of rounds one to 20.

barry
3rd September 2021, 10:31 AM
Im really starting to like Damien Barrett.

mcs
3rd September 2021, 10:32 AM
Very interesting indeed.

I suspect his views in private may be very different to his publicly expressed views.

Nico
3rd September 2021, 10:33 AM
I suspect all but Bulldogs supporters will be dissecting all Bulldogs frees tomorrow, and the number of throws that don't get penalised.

i'm-uninformed2
3rd September 2021, 11:06 AM
Very interesting indeed.

I suspect his views in private may be very different to his publicly expressed views.

I have a friend who is at the Swans. I deliberately don't ask him about all things inside Swans, as he's a friend, and I don't want to exploit that. So, for example, I have no clue as to our cap, position on contracts, etc.

But the one thing - five years on - he will consistently raise, unprompted, is the umpiring from that grand final. And let's just say, it is a deeply, deeply uncharitable view that I suspect everyone from the coach to the players to the boot studder holds, involves endless cussing and a stunned amazement that the Dogs still get away with their style of play to this day.

If we're playing the Dogs, or they are on a big Friday night game he knows I'll be watching, trust me - he's usually first to fling off the potty-mouthed text about their 'handballs' and free kick counts.

Sandridge
3rd September 2021, 11:09 AM
Interesting comment from Barrett this morning:

IF ... the Bulldogs got a very nice run from the umpires in the 2016 finals series, and just ask John Longmire for his thoughts on that year's Grand Final ...
THEN ... they're off to a flyer again in the 2021 series. Regardless, they absolutely belted the Bombers in Launceston, and looked to have returned to being the Dogs of rounds one to 20.

And it's not the first time he has referenced the 2016 Grand Final in his Sliding Doors pieces. He obviously believes we were well and truly shafted in that game.

The Bulldogs were too good for Essendon last week but the 4 goals Weightman got from free kicks were astounding. I could see how one was possibly a free - the other 3 were laughable.

Markwebbos
3rd September 2021, 11:15 AM
I have a friend who is at the Swans. I deliberately don't ask him about all things inside Swans, as he's a friend, and I don't want to exploit that. So, for example, I have no clue as to our cap, position on contracts, etc.

But the one thing - five years on - he will consistently raise, unprompted, is the umpiring from that grand final. And let's just say, it is a deeply, deeply uncharitable view that I suspect everyone from the coach to the players to the boot studder holds, involves endless cussing and a stunned amazement that the Dogs still get away with their style of play to this day.

If we're playing the Dogs, or they are on a big Friday night game he knows I'll be watching, trust me - he's usually first to fling off the potty-mouthed text about their 'handballs' and free kick counts.

Wow, I had no idea!

sprite
3rd September 2021, 11:15 AM
A friend of mine is an Essendon supporter and I was reading his posts on FB after the game on the weekend. There were plenty of comments and agreement that Foostcray get a charitable/unbelievable run with freekicks from the umpires.

So it isn't just us, that has problems when playing them.

mcs
3rd September 2021, 11:38 AM
A friend of mine is an Essendon supporter and I was reading his posts on FB after the game on the weekend. There were plenty of comments and agreement that Foostcray get a charitable/unbelievable run with freekicks from the umpires.

So it isn't just us, that has problems when playing them.

I find injector fans a little hard to take seriously at times because they see almost everyone in the whole wide world is 'out there to get them'. But on this one they are spot on.

- - - Updated - - -


I have a friend who is at the Swans. I deliberately don't ask him about all things inside Swans, as he's a friend, and I don't want to exploit that. So, for example, I have no clue as to our cap, position on contracts, etc.

But the one thing - five years on - he will consistently raise, unprompted, is the umpiring from that grand final. And let's just say, it is a deeply, deeply uncharitable view that I suspect everyone from the coach to the players to the boot studder holds, involves endless cussing and a stunned amazement that the Dogs still get away with their style of play to this day.

If we're playing the Dogs, or they are on a big Friday night game he knows I'll be watching, trust me - he's usually first to fling off the potty-mouthed text about their 'handballs' and free kick counts.

You fancy it may all boil over at some stage if we were to meet them again in a big final - watch out for serious fireworks should that happen in the next couple of years or so.

barry
3rd September 2021, 12:57 PM
We've had plenty of chances to even up, and done nothing.
Bulldogs are just a team to avoid in finals. I thought wed be safe this year as they were on the other side of the draw, with the only possible meeting being the GF...and fellow umpire darlings Essendon would beat them.

Even essendons umpire love was not powerful enough.

Markwebbos
8th September 2021, 07:44 PM
If you want your head to explode with rage then I can heartily recommend this article from the Mongrel Punt.

The Alex Docherty Column - "Free Kick Bulldogs" is a Myth - The Mongrel Punt (https://themongrelpunt.com/afl-season-2021/2021/09/07/the-alex-docherty-column-free-kick-bulldogs-is-a-myth/)

Written by a dogs supporter no less.

mcs
8th September 2021, 07:52 PM
If you want your head to explode with rage then I can heartily recommend this article from the Mongrel Punt.

The Alex Docherty Column - "Free Kick Bulldogs" is a Myth - The Mongrel Punt (https://themongrelpunt.com/afl-season-2021/2021/09/07/the-alex-docherty-column-free-kick-bulldogs-is-a-myth/)

Written by a dogs supporter no less.

I just laughed when I read that earlier today.

The Mongrel Punt has a great variety of material, and one of the best footy websites out there. But letting a resident fairypup fan write about free kick Bulldogs is not going to win you too many friends in the broader footy community haha! :rofl:

Markwebbos
8th September 2021, 08:05 PM
I just laughed when I read that earlier today.

The Mongrel Punt has a great variety of material, and one of the best footy websites out there. But letting a resident fairypup fan write about free kick Bulldogs is not going to win you too many friends in the broader footy community haha! :rofl:

It was this that got my blood boiling: “The Bulldogs’ 2016 premiership was based on a handball-happy style of movement and that drew the ire of many people … There are still Sydney fans still on their high horse about the game itself, and like many other games before that one, it had poor decisions go both ways.”

mcs
8th September 2021, 09:14 PM
It was this that got my blood boiling: “The Bulldogs’ 2016 premiership was based on a handball-happy style of movement and that drew the ire of many people … There are still Sydney fans still on their high horse about the game itself, and like many other games before that one, it had poor decisions go both ways.”

:rofl If nothing else, the fairypuppies will always try and convince that somehow they are 'hard done by' lol!

I'm not sure in any universe that these 2 conditions can co-exist at the same time.
1) A game had 'poor decisions both ways': but
2) One team was so disciplined, so good, so amazing, that they didn't concede a free kick in 3 quarters of footy.

And that's before one takes into account the nature of the contest on that day.

dejavoodoo44
8th September 2021, 09:26 PM
If you want your head to explode with rage then I can heartily recommend this article from the Mongrel Punt.

The Alex Docherty Column - "Free Kick Bulldogs" is a Myth - The Mongrel Punt (https://themongrelpunt.com/afl-season-2021/2021/09/07/the-alex-docherty-column-free-kick-bulldogs-is-a-myth/)

Written by a dogs supporter no less.

His use of stats at the beginning, was a bit like saying that if you ignore the signs, then 10 + 5 and 10 - 5 are really much the same thing.

Sandridge
11th September 2021, 06:02 PM
Poodles going for a positive free kick differential for the 10th final in a row tonight!

What are the chances they'll succeed?

mcs
11th September 2021, 06:08 PM
Poodles going for a positive free kick differential for the 10th final in a row tonight!

What are the chances they'll succeed?

If there was a bookmakers market on it, they'd be at $1.01!

Nico
12th September 2021, 10:55 AM
The umpires had an easy weekend. One might say they put away the whistle for big games, but in reality they didn't have to make a lot of decisions given the lack of competitiveness by 2 teams.

Sandridge
21st September 2021, 07:27 PM
Stevic umpiring the Grand Final. Good luck Dees!

i'm-uninformed2
21st September 2021, 07:30 PM
Stevic umpiring the Grand Final. Good luck Dees!

Lord. I’d love to see what’s in the photo montage of Gil that’s in his phone.

barry
21st September 2021, 09:14 PM
Poodles going for a positive free kick differential for the 10th final in a row tonight!

What are the chances they'll succeed?
They lost the free kick count against Port.

dejavoodoo44
21st September 2021, 11:25 PM
Lord. I’d love to see what’s in the photo montage of Gil that’s in his phone.

Possibly something like the 3D embodiment of a Frankie Boyle monologue?

Of course, after typing "Frankie Boyle monologue", I did google, Frankie Boyle monologue, to see what obscenity was the top result. It's this one!

Frankie Boyle - Dogging Monologue - New World Order S4Ep4 - YouTube (https://youtu.be/D_uNGpvNlEo)

WARNING: PLEASE DO NOT CLICK ON THE ABOVE IF YOU'RE EASILY OFFENDED.

Sandridge
22nd September 2021, 09:02 AM
They lost the free kick count against Port.

They were well and truly due to lose a free kick count in a final. I have to admit they were just way too good for Port but I'd be very concerned about umpire puppy love if I was a Demon supporter!

(Time to start the "Other Games" thread please, deja? Even though our Bloods aren't involved, I'm right into this GF! I've a lot of great friends who are long suffering Demon supporters and I dearly want to see Melbourne smash the Poodles!)