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SWANSBEST
28th March 2003, 05:53 AM
The ugly duckling
March 28 2003




Nest egg: Swans coach Paul Roos has been given a mandate to sacrifice immediate success and build for the future. Photo: Simon Alekna


The Swans are looking to the future. The talk is of attractive footy and, above all, patience. But how much short-term pain can the club endure for long-term gain? Richard Hinds reports.


Don't think of the Swans as a football team this season. Think of them as a limbo dancer. On the eve of their first home-and-away game, against Carlton, the big question is this: How low can they go?

Or, put another way, in their efforts to create a team that will deliver genuine and sustainable success, how poorly can the Swans afford to perform as they trade youth for experience?

How quickly will the patience of fans, sponsors and, perhaps, even some within the club be tested if the Swans sink to the bottom of the ladder, as many pundits have forecast? And, perhaps most pertinently, how many games can the Swans afford to lose, particularly at home, and still remain viable in a cut-throat sporting market?

"It's a tough question," says coach Paul Roos. "The easiest way to get to the top is to finish at the bottom. StKilda has been down there for three years and had the best [draft] picks but we don't want to manufacture that. The competition is pretty even and a loss or two could make a big difference. But what is too low? Six wins? 10? 11? It's hard to know."

In Roos's favour is the fact that, at least for now, he and the football department have been given a mandate to strive for long-term results.

ll say what I said in front of 600 people at the guernsey presentation," says Swans chairman Richard Colless when asked how bad would be too bad. "The message is very simple. We've told our people to do what they have to to achieve long-term success. Remain uncompromising and we will back you unconditionally."

The Swans must revitalise a playing list that has suffered from both the retirements of veterans Paul Kelly, Andrew Dunkley, Wayne Schwass and Tony Lockett and the decision to trade early draft picks for experienced players in previous seasons.

History proves there is usually only one way to work within a system that rewards the poorly performed - lurch to the foot of the table and rebound as strongly as you can.

But it is much easier to take the plunge with money in the bank. Last year, the Swans lost $1million. They are now facing fierce competition for sponsors from the Rugby World Cup and finding it more difficult to gain media exposure in the face of a resurgent National Rugby League. Can they afford to do the right thing?

The Swans have been freely tipped to win the wooden spoon in the Melbourne media. Given their home-ground advantage and a reasonable run with injuries, a finish somewhere between ninth and 13th would seem more likely. But having dodged the draft for several years in the hope of pinching a premiership while Kelly, Lockett, Schwass and Co were still in red and white, the more pertinent question is whether Sydney's youngsters are good enough to justify the faith that will be shown in them this season.

Given that they seemed to have ridden the great wave of 1996 into a profitable and competitive era, the temptation is to ask how the Swans have got themselves into such a fine mess.

Was former coach Rodney Eade too driven by a desire for short-term success or was he merely following the orders of a board that publicly expressed its high ambitions? Was the club too generous to moderately performed players? Were the finances as tightly monitored as they should have been?

The Swans will start this season with a new chief executive (Colin Seery), a new football director (Andrew Ireland) and a new coach (Roos). Predictably, the answers to those questions depend on whether you talk to one of the host of key performers who have left the club in the past 12 months or those now in charge.

However, more important than pointing the finger is for the Swans to find a way to work their way back up the ladder. Central to the club's plans is Ireland, the former Brisbane Lions chief executive who signed a five-year deal to oversee the Swans' football department after acting as a consultant last year.

Ireland has already seen controversial times at the club during its flirtation with former Western Bulldogs coach Terry Wallace. That move backfired spectacularly.

However, Ireland arrived with a big reputation, having overseen the Lions' successful transition from laughing stock to back-to-back premiers. After six months in Sydney, he believes revitalising the Swans could be an even harder task.

"It was easier at Brisbane to go with an absolute youth policy because we'd just started," says Ireland. "Everyone accepted that we had been given a raw deal when we were established and that it would take some time to turn it around."

Although the expectations in Sydney are greater, Ireland is confident the Swans board will not get cold feet.

"In the practice match at Coffs Harbour [on March 1, when the Swans lost 12.7 (79) to 5.9 (39) to Carlton], we could have played more experienced players and tried to get a win to make things look a bit better but we didn't want to do that," he says. "I think we've got the makings of a very competitive team but we won't compromise what we are doing to build our list and the whole club is pushing that way."

Roos may benefit from the diminished expectations. He signed a three-year contract, whereas most new coaches get just two, largely because of the supporter backlash against the mooted Wallace appointment. That gives Roos time to make his mark, assuming the fans who demanded his appointment remain patient.

"When you're team-building, everyone can get a bit frustrated," says Roos. "But if we are losing and people can still see we are improving and playing an exciting brand of footy, I think they'll stick with us. It's important that we're seen to be having a go and putting in week after week."

"Exciting brand of footy" is a phrase used regularly at the SCG - perhaps in place of "finals". With a forward line that could feature Barry Hall, Michael O'Loughlin, Adam Goodes, Stephen Doyle, Nick Davis, Matthew Nicks and Scott Stevens, the best hope seems to be if the Swans don't win, at least they will play an attractive, high-scoring game. The worst fears are that without the dependable Dunkley and a dearth of key defenders, the opposition will score even more. Roos is more upbeat.

"We've got guys back there like Jason Saddington, Leo Barry, Tadhg Kennelly ... who can run and use the footy," he says. "Again, the signs are that even if we do get beaten, there will be enough highlights to keep people interested." That is an unusual remark for a coach to make - but an honest one. Even the players accept results may be sacrificed this year in order to have a realistic crack at a distant premiership.

"You come to realise it's a privilege to win a premiership, not a right," says new captain Stuart Maxfield. "It takes a lot of good management and luck to get one. It might take us three or four years to get there and that's the message we've been trying to get across."

Will the fans listen? Membership sales have been slow, although Colless says there has been a late surge. Sales of "middle tier" corporate packages (worth between $15,000 and $50,000 each) are still relatively poor, with the blame being put on the Rugby World Cup. Even the employer of one Swans board member has downgraded its AFL sponsorship this year because clients prefer the rugby.

The Swans' answer has been to slash spending and budget for a poor on-field performance. Already about $2.5million has been cut from the football budget and the club's generous player payments are now a target.

Although the Swans are able to spend 15percent more than other clubs as part of their salary-cap concessions, they hope not to use any of that excess this season. There have also been staff cuts and, as Colless puts it: "Some people are getting buses when they used to fly."

"We're not relying on winning a significant number of games," says Colless. "We're no longer relying on having to make the finals. We have a far more conservative business model."

Now it is up to the club to stand firm and the supporters to keep the faith. Only time will tell whether, after a potential season of pain, the Swans will rise again.

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/03/27/1048653807019.html

skilts stilts
28th March 2003, 08:30 AM
Well thats it.There's no point following the swans this year.If all we can expect is attractive footy this year then save your money. .I have said previously that the excuses are going to come thick and thin this year.The personnel losses and gains are not so heavily lopsided that we should tolerate mediocrity.

redunderthebed
28th March 2003, 08:55 AM
I am sick of this line too. Maybe Roos is getting a little casual with his whimsical and semi defeatist attitude. No , I won't accept bright football just to 'develop' a team if it means losing games .No, I won't accept a place between 9th and 13th .....I demand better and it Roos job to DO better.No , I don't accept the rebuildind crap and faults of previous recruiting and retirements as a reason for failure. I believe we should be in the finals and any less of an achievement, Mr Roos, is a FAILURE .

liz
28th March 2003, 08:56 AM
There are a few questionable assumptions underlying that article.

Firstly, St Kilda is hardly an illustration of how the best way to reach the top is to hit the bottom. They are no where near hitting the top following their years of low draft picks and on the eve of the season it's not apparent that this year will be the one when they finally do it.

Secondly, a team like Geelong from last year illustrates how you can "rebuild" without being easy beats. They played some great (and winning) football at times last year and were unlucky not to quite make the 8. They also probably suffered from having too many young kids all learning together. The current Sydney squad has a far solider core of experienced, quality players to support the younger players than Geelong had last year (or this year, for that matter).

omnipotent
28th March 2003, 09:25 AM
You guys are the very reason we are in this predicament. You are demanding short cuts, won't accept you have to build the foundations properly. Nobody likes losing but a bit of realism please.

robbieando
28th March 2003, 09:59 AM
No more quick fixes, this club has to learn to cope with cycles of success and failure. As Lizz said we should be modeling ourselves on Geelong who made the finals in 2000, missed in 2001 badly and then went for youth and nearly pulled off a finals spot no though they would get.

I think this method is possible with the current set up on and off the field. We should stop wasting draft picks on "proven" talent and start showing some faith in the youngesters. Its a good thing that this has been stopped because if it went on we were building ourselves up for a Carlton style fall down the ladder.

Rod_
28th March 2003, 10:04 AM
Under state and over achieve!

Rod_

A 40 year fan for all seasons (Good and bad)

This year won't be as bad as expected ........ (We will make the finals!)

skilts stilts
28th March 2003, 11:16 AM
I am all for rebuilding but look at the team we have in this year.How many first gamers,how many under 21.The team is basically the same that finished with the 5th best percentage last year.If there were 5-6 first gamers then I could accept Roos tripe,but the fact is that the team lining up this week should win.You can blend the kids in during the year as Lizz pointed out with Geelong.

penga
28th March 2003, 03:30 PM
if u dont want to see development and see a couple of losses along the way then bugger off, if youre a true swans supporter u must see that these next few years a highly necessary!!!

i think we can make the 8, but if we dont, i wanna see some young fellas used... not "instant success"

penga
28th March 2003, 03:33 PM
u gotta understand also that the youngsters that are goin to be blooded have some injury clouds over them as well...
ie thewlis, james, lrt, hunt...

Nico
28th March 2003, 04:40 PM
We put up with boring, self preservation footy under Rodney Eade for too long. Seems as soon as we take a diferent angle, and start to play real footy, some fans demand the head of the coach after 1 season if indeed it turns out to be an "average season".

Symptomatic of so many clubs over a decade. Not prepared to do the hard work and develop players, rather, pick up "over the hills"
and try to plug gaps with them and hope like hell they make the finals. Strewth have a look at Hawthorn and their current approach of picking up hacks.

Lets not forget that Paul Roos played 300+ games and was one of the "smartest' players of the modern era. He has stated right from day 1 that he was into developing players, both new and old. A 10% improvement increase across the board and we are right up there. I think that they are underplaying their player stocks and that they believe we will do a lot better than the scribes believe.

They have not yet, I believe said that they will be good, bad or average, other than saying consistency might be a problem, which all but Brisbane, Port Adelaide and perhaps Collingwood was not guilty of in 2002.

So all you pessemists , get over it", and start enjoying your footy in 2003. Get with the new approach, you are welcome to join me on the bandwagon if we get on a role. All will be forgiven.

desredandwhite
28th March 2003, 04:43 PM
Mind you, not a single ball has been bounced in anger yet this season!! :D

Let's wait and see how the side responds hey? I reckon it'll take us a few weeks to find a system that "works". We are definitely not as well drilled AT THE MOMENT as team like Brisbane, Collingwood etc are.

penga
28th March 2003, 06:07 PM
on fox footy league teams, shi.te mike said "ive put sydney in to win the spoon but i also can see them winning 8-9 games so see where the logic is in with that..."

the bottom 12 teams are all a chance to make 5 - 16, we'll be right

Nico
28th March 2003, 06:17 PM
Originally posted by penga
on fox footy league teams, shi.te mike said "ive put sydney in to win the spoon but i also can see them winning 8-9 games so see where the logic is in with that..."

the bottom 12 teams are all a chance to make 5 - 16, we'll be right

And how breathtaking was the incisive dribble of John Barnes.

Wonder how he travels on the IQ test.

Makes Crackers Keenan look like a Rhodes Scholar.

Dpw
28th March 2003, 06:39 PM
Youth is the answer, however the problem with youth is you won't know how your've done untill the kids get 50 games or so under the belt and of course if they have showen a negative result you have a team like Sydney of the early 90's, Freo, Brisbane 90's and you find yourself with a extended stay in the bottom four.

I think Sydney is evenly placed at the moment and this season and next season will see if we have negative or positive result.

So HOPEFULLY short term pain for long term gain.

Cheer Cheer
28th March 2003, 07:25 PM
I am postively happy with the processes employed at the club at the moment and they have my full support. I am in agreeance with the strategies and procedures put in place to rebuild this club and take us forward in the next few years.
Believe me people, we are on course at the moment to go forward, very much so.

omnipotent
29th March 2003, 08:27 AM
I would have preferred an experienced coach to nurture a new club. Malthouse did wonders in building up a list as he knows what it takes.

Bron
29th March 2003, 08:38 AM
I think that things are going pretty well in the football department at the moment. There has been a focus on youth. Many of the players appear to have lifted their games - although there is still (and I guess always will be) room for improvement. I think that the coaching is being innovative.

Look at the criticism Ian Thorpe's coach was getting earlier in the week, then he wins the medley and he's back to being superfish.

I am hopeful of a good year, I have glimmers of hope for a great year.

Bexl
29th March 2003, 10:27 PM
Sydney 146 Carlton 72.
Wasn't too ugly tonight.

sprite
29th March 2003, 10:57 PM
We have just beaten the bottom side from last year with less than full strength side. Which proved to be a strong win.


Let's not get too carried away.

We will have a roller coaster ride this year, week to week there will be some strong highs and the lows will hurt deeply.

What needs to be remembered we are restructuring and developing a new game plan under a new coach.

Overall the ultimate result (premiership) won't come instantly, but will be the result of an improvement over a period of time (within 5 years).


Like Rod, I am a long term Swans supporter who is prepared to stick it out.

sprite

Cheer Cheer
29th March 2003, 11:15 PM
I'm not getting carried away, but tonight was a very good performance, we too were under strength, and we really couldn't have asked for much more tonight.

Mike_B
29th March 2003, 11:27 PM
Tonight was the type of game we had to win to maintain the faith from those people who could be considered 'fair-weather' supporters. There were alot of positives there, but I'm not getting too excited, we were playing fairly weak opposition, and we will have a much better idea of just where we stand over the next few weeks.