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Thread: Swans' average over last 16 years

  1. #1
    Aut vincere aut mori Thunder Shaker's Avatar
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    Swans' average over last 16 years

    I've done an analysis of the Swans' finishing positions over the last 16 seasons (1990 to 2005). It shows that the Swans have been right on average.

    After home and away season:
    1 - 4: 4 (1996, 1998, 2003, 2005)
    5 - 8: 4 (1997, 1999, 2001, 2004)
    9 -12: 4 (1991, 1995, 2000, 2002)
    13+: 4 (1990, 1992, 1993, 1994)

    Time in Finals:
    1 week: 3 (1997, 1999, 2001)
    2 weeks: 2 (1998, 2004)
    3 weeks: 1 (2003)
    4 weeks (Grand Final): 2 (1996, 2005)

    Premierships: 1 (2005)

    So we are an average side, very average. But "average" in the true mathematical sense. We've made the finals an average number of times (8/16), we've made the Grand Final an average number of times (2), and ... we've won an average number of premierships (1)!

    One note: This analysis includes seasons with less than 16 teams and seasons with less than 8 teams in the finals. The analysis was also done over 16 seasons because it shows the Swans finishing in each block of 4 places 4 times.

    The analysis gets better when the first six seasons are excluded (1990 to 1995), because the Swans did not play in the finals during that time. I hope to be able to do another analysis six years from now that shows the Swans being the best side over that time. (We're already doing okay over the last 10 years, making the finals 8 times).
    "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

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    Leadership Group goswannie14's Avatar
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    Too much time on your hands Thunder Shaker???

    I remember there was a thread here (somewhere) that showed that over the last 10 years we were the second best erforming side in the league
    Does God believe in Atheists?

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    On the Rookie List airpoe's Avatar
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    I thought that last 10 years would of been better. (1996-2005) I look quite good.

    After home and away season:
    1 - 4: 4 (1996, 1998, 2003, 2005)
    5 - 8: 4 (1997, 1999, 2001, 2004)
    9 -12: 2 (2000, 2002)
    13+: 0

    Time in Finals:
    1 week: 3 (1997, 1999, 2001)
    2 weeks: 2 (1998, 2004)
    3 weeks: 1 (2003)
    4 weeks (Grand Final): 2 (1996, 2005)

    Premierships: 1 (2005)

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    Re: Swans' average over last 16 years

    Originally posted by Thunder Shaker
    But "average" in the true mathematical sense.
    "average" is an ambiguous term in a mathematical sense. A mathematician would be more likely to refer to 'mean', 'median' and/or 'mode' depending on the context, probably with qualifers that provide additional information re the distribution and maybe the trends of the underlying data.

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    Think positive! j s's Avatar
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    Re: Re: Swans' average over last 16 years

    Originally posted by liz
    "average" is an ambiguous term in a mathematical sense. A mathematician would be more likely to refer to 'mean', 'median' and/or 'mode' depending on the context, probably with qualifers that provide additional information re the distribution and maybe the trends of the underlying data.
    I remember doing that same stats course many years ago.

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    Can you feel it? Site Admin ugg's Avatar
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    Aut vincere aut mori Thunder Shaker's Avatar
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    Re: Re: Swans' average over last 16 years

    Originally posted by liz
    "average" is an ambiguous term in a mathematical sense.
    True - but it's better than the disturbing vernacular trend of using "average" to mean "bad", "worst" and the like.

    In a 16-team competition over 16 years, on average a side will win the premiership once, finish on top of the ladder once, play in 2 grand finals, and make the finals 8 times. We've done all of that.

    Time on my hands? Maybe; but the whole analysis took only 20 minutes to compose and write.
    "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

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    Salt future's rising SimonH's Avatar
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    In a 16-team competition over 16 years, on average a side will win the premiership once, finish on top of the ladder once, play in 2 grand finals, and make the finals 8 times.
    Nerd alert! Nerd alert!; re the below.

    The above statement isn't true. A mean average is not expected to be replicated in practice. The fact that the mean average speed for a car journey in the Sydney metro area is 33 km/h, doesn't mean you can expect to see too many people driving around at 33 km/h.

    Let's leave aside the fact that success or failure is not a 50/50 proposition in relation to every team in every match/season.

    Even in a truly random distribution, repetitions will occur. If you are drawing 16 times randomly from a hat with 16 names in it, putting back the piece of paper you just drew before the next draw, it is statistically fabulously improbable that you will draw out each name once.

    That, combined with the fact that some teams are just plain ol' stronger for longer, explains why 'only' 9 teams have won premierships in the last 16 years. When you add in the fact that 2 of those 16 teams haven't existed for about half of the 16 year block, the proportion is actually surprisingly high. I suspect that if you look at any previous 16 year block before 1990, you'll get a lower proportion than 9/16-- the draft really has produced a far more even comp.

    PS I was wondering how on earth we got in the '9-12' bracket in 1991, bearing in mind that we sucked. The answer (apart from the fact that we won 7.5 games by some miracle) is that it was only a 15-team comp, so 12th was 4th-bottom back then.[

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    Aut vincere aut mori Thunder Shaker's Avatar
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    Originally posted by SimonH
    Nerd alert! Nerd alert!; re the below.

    The above statement isn't true. A mean average is not expected to be replicated in practice. The fact that the mean average speed for a car journey in the Sydney metro area is 33 km/h, doesn't mean you can expect to see too many people driving around at 33 km/h.

    Let's leave aside the fact that success or failure is not a 50/50 proposition in relation to every team in every match/season.

    Even in a truly random distribution, repetitions will occur. If you are drawing 16 times randomly from a hat with 16 names in it, putting back the piece of paper you just drew before the next draw, it is statistically fabulously improbable that you will draw out each name once.

    That, combined with the fact that some teams are just plain ol' stronger for longer, explains why 'only' 9 teams have won premierships in the last 16 years. When you add in the fact that 2 of those 16 teams haven't existed for about half of the 16 year block, the proportion is actually surprisingly high. I suspect that if you look at any previous 16 year block before 1990, you'll get a lower proportion than 9/16-- the draft really has produced a far more even comp.

    PS I was wondering how on earth we got in the '9-12' bracket in 1991, bearing in mind that we sucked. The answer (apart from the fact that we won 7.5 games by some miracle) is that it was only a 15-team comp, so 12th was 4th-bottom back then.
    Which is why I created the thread.

    Despite what you say, in the last 16 seasons we HAVE finished with 1 premiership, 1 minor premiership, 2 grand finals, 8 finals appearances, and 4 finishes in each ladder bracket after the home and away season. Statistically it IS improbable, yet we have somehow done it.

    It highlights the effect the draft has of evening the competition.

    It demonstrates that the Swans fans have suffered through bad seasons as well as enjoying the good.

    And finally, it gives me another excuse to use the words "premiership" and "Swans" in the same sentence because those words sound so good together.

    You are correct to point out that in some of those seasons there were fewer teams (14 in 1990, 15 in 1991-4). It does skew the stats a bit, but if one wants to get that picky, one may as well say that finishing 9th in a 15-team competition (with a final 8) is not the same as finishing 9th in a 16-team competition. I'm ignoring this statistical discrepancy in deference to highlighting the mathematical symmetry.
    Last edited by Thunder Shaker; 22nd December 2005 at 04:24 PM.
    "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

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    You have all gone mad in the off season.

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    RWO Life Member ROK Lobster's Avatar
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    Originally posted by Nico
    You have all gone mad in the off season.
    It is just more obvious in the off season

  12. #12
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    just worry about the last year

    1-4 - 1
    finals - 1 grand final
    premierships - 1

    YOU BEAUTY
    BACK2BACK

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