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Thread: Pre-season formula

  1. #13
    Aut vincere aut mori Thunder Shaker's Avatar
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    Originally posted by Mel
    It's been a while since high school maths, but I don't think that's the way percentages and probabilities work. There was never a 100% chance that five of our top players would be injured come GF time. Can anybody who is/was good at maths help me out?
    This may be incorrect but it's a good first approximation.

    Let's assume the season is 26 games, and the probability of a specific player being injury-free for the season is 75% (0.75).

    Then the chance of that player being injured during a game is 0.75^(1/26) which is roughly equal to 0.989.

    The chance of all 22 players escaping injury in a game is 0.75^(22/26) or roughly 0.784.

    The chance of all 22 players going injury-free during a 4-game finals campaign is 0.75^(88/26) or roughly 0.378.
    "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

  2. #14
    I said it after the finals, but Dave Misson deserves a premiership medal himself. Knight him or whatever.

    The guy is a genius and I hope the Swans have the chequebook out to make sure he's not poached by cashed up clubs like Adelaide or Collingwood.

    Sydney are 5-10 years in front of some of the Melbourne clubs in terms of facilities, fitness, training methods, rehab etc.

    It gives great confidence that every Swans team that takes to field is so well prepared.
    "As everyone knows our style of football is defensive and unattractive, and as such I have completely forgotten how to mark or kick over the years" - Brett Kirk

  3. #15
    Senior Player sharp9's Avatar
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    As far as stats goes you multiplied instead of dividing.

    To think simplistically rather than mathematically.....there is a one in four chance of a player being injured at some time in the season......not a one in four chance of a player being injured during any game.

    Or, to put it another way the likliehood is that 3 out of four players will be uninjured for the entire season if they have this preparation....

    Or to put it another way the likelihood is that 5 or 6 players only will miss some games during an entire season if 22 players have the perfect preparation....and that 16 or 17 would play every game for the entire season

    In other words its very, very low compared to standard injury rates in the AFL.

    Clear?

    I believe that we had 9 or 10 players play every game (and probably more if you count the ones who only missed through being dropped) so if we had 9 or 10 players who did not have perfect pre-seasons then that would make the 75% stat about right.

    Don't forget that a number of our fringe players also played every game in the seconds when they were not required in the firsts.

    The implication is that 18-20 of our best 22 will have completed the required training by round one and that therefore we may have 12 or so play the entire season, which would be unheard of in the modern era.

    Or, then again, I could be putting the mox on.
    "I'll acknowledge there are more talented teams in the competition but I won't acknowledge that there is a better team in the competition" Paul Roos March 2005

  4. #16
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    Outstanding work from the Swans. Presumably this preparation also has a significant effect on a player's ability to recover from an injury if they have one as well - it's not clear whether this is factored into the 75% figure.

    It was fairly evident last year that our players that did have injuries seemed to be bouncing back from them much quicker than players with similar injuries from other clubs (the Saints being particularly troubled in this respect - perhaps it cost them a flag. They'd like to think so anyway).

  5. #17
    On the Rookie List LittleSchneider's Avatar
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    Originally posted by hammo
    I said it after the finals, but Dave Misson deserves a premiership medal himself. Knight him or whatever.
    Him and Dr Nathan Gibbs. The amount of work they have put in is outstanding - and for last year to be so successful in terms of managing players they have been working for years collecting data and devising and adjusting individual players programs. Who said science plays no part in sport?? Well, who ever did was a fool.
    And the man who started it, the Schneiderman, can kick his third for the quarter. And the swans are in the Grand Final!

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