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Thread: The mathematical odds for a flag

  1. #13
    Taking Refuge!! NMWBloods's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sharp9 View Post
    The odds for Geelong are not that much better than for the Swans. If they lose this week they land in EXACTLY the same position as us (except they have a theoretical home advantage before playing away to Port or Eagles in a PF).
    Not "exactly" - the theoretical home advantage is real - it means not having to play away.

    To put it another way a top four team has to beat THREE top four teams.
    A top 8 team has to beat the 6th placed side and THEN beat three top four sides. It really is only one game different...if you're good enough it will not make much difference.
    But it obviously does make a difference as only one team has ever done it, and most of the time they don't go close. The home ground advantage (or lack of travel) becomes a factor here too.

    Usually, of course the 5-8 teams are no good and get found out (WB, Collingwood, Kangas last year) don't confuse that with the "pathway being too difficult."
    I think that is part of the story, but not all.

    Or to put it another way, if we beat Collingwood this week we are effectively in the top four (ie: we have to beat three top four sides in a row to win the flag).
    Not really. If a team in the top 4 win this week, they get a week off and then a home final.
    Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

    "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

  2. #14
    Goodesgoodesgoodesgoodes! Industrial Fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by katie-scarlett View Post
    so... does anyone here watch Numb3rs..
    God damn that is a stupid show. Ranks up there with Troma Entertainment in terms of script writing. In Tromas defence, at least they are not under any pretense that they're good.
    He ate more cheese, than time allowed

  3. #15
    On the Rookie List Jewels's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sharp9 View Post
    The odds for Geelong are not that much better than for the Swans. If they lose this week they land in EXACTLY the same position as us (except they have a theoretical home advantage before playing away to Port or Eagles in a PF).
    I feel for the Cats this year in so far as after the brilliant season they have had, not having their home ground advantage. I know they don't have the travel to factor in, but not being able to play finals at Skilled is a major disadvantage to them, they are far more disadvantaged then the other three top finishers.

  4. #16
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    i would adore a the mathematical odds of the kitties choking again?

  5. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by originalswan View Post
    Can you please pass this advice onto the bookmakers who constantly have the Swans at ridiculous odds - Or are there alot of rich Swans supporters out there?
    well most of the swans fans live in the eastern subs
    with a median house price over 1.5 - 2 million I think they have spare change running into the thousands to have a "little" flutter at the local tab in randwick or bondi!!!

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