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Thread: What changes are needed to go from also rans to a contender?

  1. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by ernie koala View Post
    We get exposed by teams willing to play with the same intensity as us. Our decision making and skills drop away dramatically under pressure. Our pace is generally slow.
    This is what separates the top teams from the also rans. In 05/06 we handled the pressure, now we don't.
    Changes:
    Playfair.....ordinary at best, disposal is lamentable.
    LRT....Getting found out way too often
    Ablett/J Bolton....only room for one
    Everitt.....He should retire soon, can't run, or bend over, anymore

    Close to retirement.....Leaper
    Please no going back.....ie Mathews, Crouch

    I'd like to see more of Smith(he's quick), Schmidt, White, O'Dwyer, Vespremi
    Generally agree we really seem to struggle against pressure and skillful opposition. We lose the ball too easily and miss targets that were unthinkable two years ago.

    The next game against Carlton is crucial - lose and we will even struggle to make the 8 win and we have a shot at the top 4 - remembering we still have Geelong, the Bulldogs and our bogey team Collingwood to play again.

  2. #14
    Salt future's rising SimonH's Avatar
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    Yeah, in about 100 words that's it. Except I think Leo has plenty still to offer; just in a different role to that he's been asked to play for the last 5 years. Which is a whole different thread. (No, really: it is.)

    One possible concern for future years (and now) is that a lot of our up-and-comers have okay pace without being really quick: Schmidt, McVeigh, Bird, Moore, Jack (Jack I think is medium-quick). Apparently DOK and Vespa aren't potential Stawell Gift winners either. Of course the old guys of the middle are famously slow with the exception of when-will-he-be-right Fossie (and the lamented-but-not-even-gone Crouch).

    Pace isn't the be-all and end-all (no-one knows that better than David Spriggs) but it really helps to have one or two guys who can just put the foot down and burn off the opposition, a la Cyril Rioli yesterday or Daisy Thomas/Leon Davis last week. Goodes can actually do it, but that's because of his strength as much as his speed.

    We certainly have to hope that Currie is as good as everyone says, because we're on the bones of our arse for ruckmen in the senior squad, and we can't afford to trade away any more picks for big men in the 2008 draft.

    Geelong is the template right now. Their style is more fluid than ours, but it is not 'play on at all costs' at all. While the Hawks and Dogs may be the 2nd and 3rd best sides in the comp (by a fair distance) in the minor round, neither one is the full package and either one is capable of being found badly wanting under the pressure of finals.

    Roos is actually half-right: if we score from near enough to 60% of our inside 50s, then the forwards are doing a fine job (as long as Buchanan and Playfair aren't taking many of the set shots). What needs a jab is the midfield, to produce plenty more inside 50s than we got yesterday.

  3. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by hot potato View Post
    The running teams generally DON'T kick that long it's more like 30 - 35 metres to a lead 2 metres ahead of their opponent. Then there are always support players streaming past. When the Swans players take a mark, there are rarely support players running past, SO THEY ACTUALLY RUN BACKWARDS 20 METRES!! The trouble is the skill level just to hit a target from 30 metres is really dreadful, going over heads OR too short, and if you can't kick thru the ball and get goals, it's all over, because 10 goals in four quarters is about all The Swans are capable of ATM.
    I pretty much agree with all of that Sir Grunty! However, the running teams do kick long more often that the Swans. A long kick is defined as at least 40m and you see more of those (and the 30-35m ones) compared to our dinky little 20m ones. We are the second lowest team in the competition for long kicks. Collingwood has 30% more than us.

    What's interesting is that we're the third lowest team in the competition for disposals, but we're third highest for disposal differential (ie: our disposals minus our opponents). We are definitely still playing a lockdown, low possession, low scoring style of play. However, against highly skilled teams that is obviously not working.
    Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

    "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

  4. #16
    Carpe Noctem CureTheSane's Avatar
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    I honestly believe that Roos and the club are will to drop games in order to persist with our game plan.
    The reason behind this is because it suits finals football.
    Sure, teams will play differently against us and beat us, but come finals time we will have a solid plan and be able to control the game much more effectively.

    I hope i'm right.
    The difference between insanity and genius is measured only in success.

  5. #17
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    There is a bit of an impression that we are a fabulous finals teams (I remember last year people here saying that the other teams should look out if we make finals) but I'm not really sure if that is the case.

    Our record under Roos is 7-5, which is pretty good.
    3-2 of that is against WC and our low-scoring style of game worked well against them because of their lack of forward line.
    We have 1-0 against Port when their record was 1-5.
    We have 1-0 against Geelong (only because of Davis).
    We have 1-0 Fremantle whose record is 1-3.
    We have 1-1 against StKilda, whose record was 2-2.
    We have 0-1 against Brisbane.
    We have 0-1 against Collingwood.


    So it's decent, but I'm really not sure if we are a definite finals threat because of any game plan.
    Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

    "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

  6. #18
    Salt future's rising SimonH's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NMWBloods View Post
    There is a bit of an impression that we are a fabulous finals teams (I remember last year people here saying that the other teams should look out if we make finals) but I'm not really sure if that is the case.

    Our record under Roos is 7-5, which is pretty good.
    3-2 of that is against WC and our low-scoring style of game worked well against them because of their lack of forward line.
    We have 1-0 against Port when their record was 1-5.
    We have 1-0 against Geelong (only because of Davis).
    We have 1-0 Fremantle whose record is 1-3.
    We have 1-1 against StKilda, whose record was 2-2.
    We have 0-1 against Brisbane.
    We have 0-1 against Collingwood.


    So it's decent, but I'm really not sure if we are a definite finals threat because of any game plan.
    Maybe not, but if I recall correctly some stats you posted earlier, the above record is significantly better than our record against those same sides (i.e. then-top-8-teams) during the regular season. I think there's evidence that our gameplan will win more finals, relative to the number of regular season matches it wins. Of course, that doesn't answer whether we'll win enough matches either in the regular season or in the finals.

    On the other side of the ledger, though, it's interesting that 3 of those 5 losses (all of the non-Weagles losses) were blowouts (by the Swans' tight standards), involving greater margins than we lose games by in the regular season. Not sure what that says.

  7. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by SimonH View Post
    Maybe not, but if I recall correctly some stats you posted earlier, the above record is significantly better than our record against those same sides (i.e. then-top-8-teams) during the regular season.
    Our record against top 8 sides has been relatively poor most years except 2005. However, I think we have been fortunate with some of our finals draws by opponent - we have played WC and not Adelaide for example (not to say WC in Perth is easy, but we matched up better against them than Adelaide). We were lucky to beat Geelong in '05 but we had beaten them during the year. We have a better finals game than StKilda, who are hopeless in finals, as are Fremantle.

    I think there's evidence that our gameplan will win more finals, relative to the number of regular season matches it wins.
    I'm really not sure if that is the case - I think a lot of it depends on who we play. More importantly perhaps is that the '05 and '06 teams were good in finals, and the '07 and '08 teams are only a shadow of those teams.

    On the other side of the ledger, though, it's interesting that 3 of those 5 losses (all of the non-Weagles losses) were blowouts (by the Swans' tight standards), involving greater margins than we lose games by in the regular season. Not sure what that says.
    Probably about 3 goals more, which is not surprising really as finals can often do that.
    Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

    "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

  8. #20
    Veterans List Bas's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hammo View Post
    Yup, blame the defenders but praise a forward line that can kick only 10 goals
    Dump the Swans Paul, take up politics!
    In memory of my little Staffy - Dicey, 17.06.2005 to 1.12.2011- I'll miss you mate.

  9. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by CureTheSane View Post
    I honestly believe that Roos and the club are will to drop games in order to persist with our game plan.
    The reason behind this is because it suits finals football.
    Sure, teams will play differently against us and beat us, but come finals time we will have a solid plan and be able to control the game much more effectively.

    I hope i'm right.
    That's assumimg we are still in the top eight come finals time.

    I'm not so sure.
    In memory of my little Staffy - Dicey, 17.06.2005 to 1.12.2011- I'll miss you mate.

  10. #22
    Peyow Peyow Mike_B's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SimonH View Post
    On the other side of the ledger, though, it's interesting that 3 of those 5 losses (all of the non-Weagles losses) were blowouts (by the Swans' tight standards), involving greater margins than we lose games by in the regular season. Not sure what that says.
    Quote Originally Posted by NMWBloods View Post
    Probably about 3 goals more, which is not surprising really as finals can often do that.
    All elimination finals, where its common that when the game is clearly beyond reach, the winning team piles on the goals in the last quarter - we have seen this with us on both sides (St Kilda PF in 05).

    I'm on the Chandwagon!!!

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  11. #23
    The voice of reason! DST's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NMWBloods View Post
    There is a bit of an impression that we are a fabulous finals teams (I remember last year people here saying that the other teams should look out if we make finals) but I'm not really sure if that is the case.

    Our record under Roos is 7-5, which is pretty good.
    3-2 of that is against WC and our low-scoring style of game worked well against them because of their lack of forward line.
    We have 1-0 against Port when their record was 1-5.
    We have 1-0 against Geelong (only because of Davis).
    We have 1-0 Fremantle whose record is 1-3.
    We have 1-1 against StKilda, whose record was 2-2.
    We have 0-1 against Brisbane.
    We have 0-1 against Collingwood.


    So it's decent, but I'm really not sure if we are a definite finals threat because of any game plan.
    We have won four of those finals away, which means it's very good.

    Not too many teams can claim to have won that many away from home in the last 10 years.

    DST
    "Looking forward to a rebuilt, new, fast and exciting Swans model in 2010"


  12. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by DST View Post
    We have won four of those finals away, which means it's very good.

    Not too many teams can claim to have won that many away from home in the last 10 years.
    But it still depends on the opponent and we haven't beaten anyone but WC away since '05, and we were a better side in finals in '05 and '06.
    Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

    "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

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