There's an interesting article in today's Oz about a study conducted by Champion Data and RMIT about the value of draft picks. Some selected excerpts:
One of the major findings that Mark Stewart and his team from RMIT offer is that, beyond the first round, the national draft is no more reliable a source of players than the rookie draft.Draft pattern gives recruiters cold | The AustralianThe first round of the national draft is indisputably vital, Stewart says, but after this there is so little certainty in the system that selection 25 is no more likely to produce a player than pick 65, which appears to verify a hunch that Sydney, for one, has operated by for years.
The Swans have consistently traded away speculative picks, some even late first round, for the solid evidence of players who have performed at AFL level, however modestly. They clearly prefer the bird, or Swan, in the hand.
It validates what Roos has been spruiking for years, and which came under fire from fans, myself included. As Swans fans we have witnessed the success of the tactic with Jolly (1st rounder but at the bottom end), Richards (1st rounder also at the bottom end), Mattner (2nd rounder) all successfully traded in for high draft picks and Shaw (2nd rounder) looking at this early stage as an especially cheap bargain.
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