Swans trading strategy validated

[ugg]

There's an interesting article in today's Oz about a study conducted by Champion Data and RMIT about the value of draft picks. Some selected excerpts:

One of the major findings that Mark Stewart and his team from RMIT offer is that, beyond the first round, the national draft is no more reliable a source of players than the rookie draft.

The first round of the national draft is indisputably vital, Stewart says, but after this there is so little certainty in the system that selection 25 is no more likely to produce a player than pick 65, which appears to verify a hunch that Sydney, for one, has operated by for years.
The Swans have consistently traded away speculative picks, some even late first round, for the solid evidence of players who have performed at AFL level, however modestly. They clearly prefer the bird, or Swan, in the hand.

Draft pattern gives recruiters cold | The Australian

It validates what Roos has been spruiking for years, and which came under fire from fans, myself included. As Swans fans we have witnessed the success of the tactic with Jolly (1st rounder but at the bottom end), Richards (1st rounder also at the bottom end), Mattner (2nd rounder) all successfully traded in for high draft picks and Shaw (2nd rounder) looking at this early stage as an especially cheap bargain.

[satchmopugdog]

Was just reading through the drafts in the footy record last night to bore myself to sleep and would say to myself "Good" or "Dud". In some years such as the current Brownlow medallist the call of "dud" was made very early in the draft.
Also "good" was called a lot with players that had changed clubs.

So I think I just did the same as the study but without the computer.

[ShockOfHair]

Great stuff. I always thought the draft was a crapshoot. Should be compulsory reading for those pundits who believe the game works like a pendulum.

I've heard Roos argue that players should be a year older when drafted. When they're 17 you know something about their footy skills and athleticism, but you don't know if they're emotionally equipped to play top-level sport.

In that light recruiting Pyke makes sense. If he can acquire the skills he'll be a success because you know he's got everything else.

[BSA5]

Does make you question Schneider+Dempster for pick 26 though. Not the validity of it, Meredith looks like being a gun, but the thinking behind it seems to be the complete opposite of Roos' normal thinking.

[Jewels]

Does make you question Schneider+Dempster for pick 26 though. Not the validity of it, Meredith looks like being a gun, but the thinking behind it seems to be the complete opposite of Roos' normal thinking.

I've always thought the trade was done to secure Mattner.
That Meredith appears to be working out is just the cream.

[ROK Lobster]

But we have also picked up some ordinary players (or at least players who never made it) doing the same thing - CHambers, Spriggs, Vogels etc. So maybe the post first round lottery is no different to the "may make it at another club" lottery.

[FootyontheBrain]

I've always thought the trade was done to secure Mattner.
That Meredith appears to be working out is just the cream.

No doubt the two moves went hand in hand

[liz]

But we have also picked up some ordinary players (or at least players who never made it) doing the same thing - CHambers, Spriggs, Vogels etc. So maybe the post first round lottery is no different to the "may make it at another club" lottery.

Vogels was a middish rookie pick, so not sure what he's got to do with things, other than the fact that while the rookie draft turns up players, there are also lots of misses from it.

And Spriggs was taken with a relatively late draft pick, rather than traded for.

We've not had too many misses trading for experienced players over the past decade. Chambers is the obvious one.

[BSA5]

I've always thought the trade was done to secure Mattner.
That Meredith appears to be working out is just the cream.

The Mattner trade went ahead before the Schneider and Dempster one. It was Mattner for pick 28, and then Schneider and Dempster for pick 26, seen as a replacement second round pick. If Roos was of the opinion that established players were of more value than a second round pick, then the trade shouldn't have gone through, and we would have just taken Mattner for pick 28.

[ugg]

If you believe the reports that were floating around at the time, it was for salary cap reasons, hence why we traded 2 premiership players for just 1 draft pick.