A discussion on drafting

[hammo]

A further comparison between Sydney and Adelaide.

In the past 3 drafts (2006-08), Adelaide has taken 17 players via the national draft (including 1 NSW scholarship player - Taylor Walker).

Sydney by comparison has used just 10 picks (1 NSW scholarship player - Craig Bird).

In the same period we have elevated the following seven rookies to the senior list at the end of a season (thus forgoing draft picks): Phillips, Simpkin, Barlow, Brennan, Jack, O'Dwyer, Smith. We have also traded picks for Everitt, Mattner, Playfair and Shaw.

[giant]

Nice try but...

Some trivia on the 2006 super draft: Who are the only two players taken in the top 50 not to have yet played a senior game of AFL football?

Answer: Daniel O'Keefe and Daniel Currie (both Sydney Swans)

http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/f...r=2006&t=N&s=P

I am not picking on O?Keefe and Currie and hope both can become good players for us, but it is instructive. The fact we only used two picks in the top 50 in that draft and neither have debuted sums up some of the problems we currently have in developing young players to replace the Halls, Kirks and Barrys.

Are you suggesting we should have dropped Hall & Kirk for DOK & Currie?

Roos' drafting philosophy until very recently has been that outside the first round, the draft is a crap shoot. Roos bucked the AFL trend on this (almost the only one) by saying bottoming out had never been proven to win a premiership. He relied instead on his research of US sports with an emphasis away from the draft. With Hawthorn now having 'proved' the theory, Roos now appears to be backing away from his own theory at a hundred miles an hour. I interpret his post-Collingwood remarks about lack of class as an admission you need to rebuild via the draft, not via trading and rookie list elevations as the Swans have attempted to do. Let's hope it's not 3 years too late.

I think his comment was that high draft picks "guarantee" class - as evidenced by Didak's match winning performance. Interestingly, the Pies other two recent high drafts, Thomas & Pendlebury, had very little impact on the game, but nevertheless it's certainly the case that if you don't have top 5 kicks (or fabbo f/s selections) it's bloody hard to find the real cream. In any event, unless we'd tanked, we wouldn't have had any of these high draft picks in the last few years.

This isn't intended to be anti-Roos thread, but I want to contrast our recent drafting efforts with Adelaide, who we play this week. In 2005-06 the Crows and Swans had a similar list profiles and both clubs were inside their 'premiership window'. Of course, the Swans did win a flag and narrowly missed another (had we played Adelaide in those finals series we may not have achieved this given our record against them) while Adelaide missed out and began the rebuild. The Swans in contrast have tried to prolong their current run of finals appearances by trading away draft picks for the likes of Everitt, Mattner and Shaw and forgoing draft picks to elevate rookies (Brennan, Phillips, Simpkin).

Adelaide is now regarded as having one of the most exciting young lists in the AFL (three rising star noms already this year) while generally it?s accepted the Swans will struggle for a few years with little exciting talent coming through. Like us, Adelaide has not had access to a raft of early picks.

Two of the Crows? rising star nominations were taken with second round picks ? exactly the picks the Swans have willingly traded away in recent years to snare ready-made players. The Crows took Andy Otten at pick 27 in 2007 and Kurt Tippett at pick 32 in 2006. Both play positions the Swans desperately need: a key defender and key forward / ruck. This is only a cursory look at the Crows, I am sure there are similar stories at other clubs.

The Swans? spend more on the football department than any other club in the AFL. How much of this is spent on recruiting? Clearly not enough. The draft is only a crap shoot if you don?t do your research.

It?s worth having a discussion as the club begins to seriously looks at our playing list beyond 2009. My fear is that the 2006-08 drafts will go down lost years for youth development with not enough picks being taken.

The Crows have done very well with their recruitment - but the stats don't lie, the draft is a crap shoot after the first 10. Mattner, Shaw, Richards & Jolly are comfortably in our best 22 and will all hopefully have a role to play in our next gen renaissance.

There is a place for rookies, but they can?t be relied upon to develop a list. For every rookie elevated, the club forgoes a draft pick. Players who are not regarded as being in the top 50 or 60 in the country as a teenager will rarely develop into the top class players you need to build a premiership team around.

And yet this is exactly the draft picks the Swans would presumably have given up in choosing a rookie player (in the 50s & 60s). A few years back the success stories of Cox, Glass and others had everyone scouring the rookie lists - these things go in cycles.

[hammo]

[QUOTE=giant;444794]

Are you suggesting we should have dropped Hall & Kirk for DOK & Currie?

No. I referred to O'Keefe and Currie as they're the only two players to be taken in the top 50 in 2006 NOT to have played a senior game. I'm suggesting that for a club facing a series of key retirements in the next year, our rebuild would be less daunting had recruits from that draft already established themselves as senior players with at least 20-30 games. Its not a comment on those individuals per say.

I think his comment was that high draft picks "guarantee" class - as evidenced by Didak's match winning performance. Interestingly, the Pies other two recent high drafts, Thomas & Pendlebury, had very little impact on the game, but nevertheless it's certainly the case that if you don't have top 5 kicks (or fabbo f/s selections) it's bloody hard to find the real cream. In any event, unless we'd tanked, we wouldn't have had any of these high draft picks in the last few years.

My original post pointed out the types of players the Crows had taken with second round picks in contrast to the Swans' undervaluing of anything after the first round. I still think you are more likely to pick up a classy player in the draft than in the rookie draft or by trading.

The Crows have done very well with their recruitment - but the stats don't lie, the draft is a crap shoot after the first 10. Mattner, Shaw, Richards & Jolly are comfortably in our best 22 and will all hopefully have a role to play in our next gen renaissance.

As I said I disagree about the crap shoot. If the Swans spend more than any other club on their football department, then they should have very sound knowledge of all the potential draftees. Anyway, if developing players via the rookie list is a better option (and technically a club should know these players inside out after 1 or 2 years as rookies), we've made some puzzling promotions in recent years.

Of the players you name, certainly Jolly and Richards were taken when our premiership window was open. From a purely recruiting / looking to the future perspective, the other two trades do not make sense, putting aside where they fit in our current list.

[Yakety_Yak]

Ahh! ...Hammo-Ammo.... ever heard the Aesop fable story about Chicken-Little, Henny-Penny et al ...... "The Sky is falling"?

So you think 3 years ago.. Swans having 2 consecutve GF's.... near back to back premiers, with the benefit of your "crystal ball hindsight doom predicter machine"..... (CBHPM) what does it tell you?

-Who would you have played 2nd ruck 06 & 07 if not (in place of) Spida Everitt?

-If Mitch Thorp or Tim Boyle could be picked up cheaply 09 draft (say 3rd rounders for ex Hawks top 10 picks) does the CBHP machine tell you they would be as useless as Brennan.!? ... Instructing you NOT look at them????

-Does it indicate that Kirk, O'loughlin, Hall , L Barry, ought to have been shopped around there and then? (Note ROk'y-Cocky and Jude'y-Beu'dy have been offered as trades with NO TAKERS!) They have regularly been still in Swans best on ground!

A Rocca and to a lesser extent S Grant... showed first hand that recruiting to Sydney is a perilous endeavour, to be approached with caution! The "go home factor" ... thereafter favours selection of locals or those select who indicate & profile suggests that are willing to stay happily long term.


Swans have done their best with late picks and maintaining necessary finals momentum.

Hawks, most important drafting ingredient ,was draft selction of not necessiarly "best available" but ....to fill required "player type" roles. Swans now need tall KPP's

..... in some versions of the story it turns out to be an accorn (not the sky)... in others Hammo Ammo and Chicken Little and Henny Penny et al get eaten by foxy loxy!

The Sydney Swans "sky" hasn't fallen YET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[The Big Cat]

The Sydney Swans "sky" hasn't fallen YET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Good post. We swapped a first round choice for Darren Jolly! (that's a keeper!) We swapped an early second round choice for Nick Davis! (I don't think anyone would take the chance of going back in time and reversing that pick!)

In 2003 people were saying our list was lousy and most picked us to be perennial cellar dwellers. But look what happened. Out of some late draft picks and rookie selections came the likes of ROK, Kirk, Kennelly etc.

And remember we have another O'Keefe waiting in the wings plus another Irishman.

Is there a glitch in the matrix?

[Lucky Knickers]

Except holding back another youngster??

Not sure which one at the time tho'. If you look at who we cut, who would have been ready, has anyone gone on to another club's senior list?

[Lucky Knickers]

In a few years Carlton will be doing same..

You can't be serious? They've done that already....(falling down the ladder). And we all know they're coming!

[liz]

Except holding back another youngster??

Brennan was still a relative youngster himself, just one physically ready to contribute straight away, rather than wait for 3 seasons to get strong enough.

If you take that observation to its extreme, why don't we delist Currie, White, Jack, Vez et al because they are occupying spots we could use to recruit other youngsters?

[Darren Thomson]

You can't be serious? They've done that already....(falling down the ladder). And we all know they're coming!

CArlton are about as good as they are going to get, I think is the point now, Judd isn't getting better with age, Stevens is getting on a bit(still a good player) and the younger midfielders are stepping up a bit, but Fev wil have a coupple more good years what's he now 28? I can't see them winning a flag with the crew they have now after how many years of tanking? ???? I think this is the point, and the list of players we have traded for and been successful with is endless as has beenpointed out in this thread. Gpo all the way back to Plugger and Roos and start counting. People come to club and those that left, well A Rocca I didn't lose sleep when that big girl left, needed his Mum, people have stayed because it is a good footy club, and they are well coached, which I believe is the reason for our continued succes thru the years when all and sundry in the experts boxes had us marked as the spooners. But even good coaching can only take players so far when they lack natural gifts like Judd or a Franklin, tall men don't get any shorter, but mdgets find it hard to play tall, ROK and Leo being exceptions.

[BSA5]

You can't be serious? They've done that already....(falling down the ladder). And we all know they're coming!

They're not coming. They got there with a minute to go in Round 6 against the Hawks. After Fev's miss, they sheepishly put their pants back on while their fans tried to console them that overrating oneself happens to all teams. Now they're watching TV awkwardly with each other, trying to ignore the white elephant that is the (figurative) premature ejaculation of the Carlton Football Club.

[Darren Thomson]

They're not coming. They got there with a minute to go in Round 6 against the Hawks. After Fev's miss, they sheepishly putt their pants back on while their fans tried to console them that overrating oneself happens to all teams. Now they're watching TV awkwardly with each other, trying to ignore the white elephant that is the (figurative) premature ejaculation of the Carlton Football Club.

Well put

[Young Blood]

When I look at the state of our list, I worry that the sky is about to fall in.

We have at least 12 current players who I doubt have what it takes to perform at senior level in 2010 and beyond:
* 3 players aged 31-32 who will surely retire at year's end: MO'L, Crouch, Barry
* 2 former members of the best 22 who have not performed regularly at senior level for some time: Ablett, Buchanan
* 5 players now aged 22-23 who are yet to show they have what it takes: Moore, Grundy, Barlow, Brabazon, Laidlaw
* 2 players with apparently chronic injury problems: Playfair, Schmidt

That's 12 out of a senior list of 38, and I haven't counted our two oldest players, or the 5 unknown quantities who are yet to play a game. We can't hope to be a contender again until we cut the dead wood.