The Mongrel?s Rabid Rankings Week 4:
Due to sme feedback on the Bigfooty board I have made some minor changes to my weekly posts. My rankings are not going to emulate the methodology of the US style power rankings, hence the name change. My rankings are a combination of performance, factors that I feel may have an impact in the immediate future (injuries, suspensions, scandals, whatever), analysis and a large slice of in-your-face opinion. It probably serves as a form guide more than anything else.
Please throw your thoughts into the mix.
Conquistador team of the week: Collingwood - The Pies managed to put a shameful performance of just 4 goals, a tumultuous week in the media and some serious sanction from the AFL behind them to obliterate a hapless Hawthorn. A gutsy response that may serve as a launching pad for 2010.
Steaming pile team of the week: Adelaide ? The Crows are apocryphal at the moment, and would not start strong favourites to beat Richmond. Some recognition must be given to the injury list and underdone players....but please! There were stages on Saturday where I wanted to pluck my eyeballs out.
1. Geelong: Rabid Ranking Movement (0), Ladder 4th, Record 3-1, Form WLW, Ahead Blues (A), Tigers (H), Sydney (H) ? The Cat-train rolls along. The Cats are the leading possession team in the league and a clear leading scoring team. The Cats are also in the top 8 in almost every key statistical measure (marks, tackles, hit-outs, frees for...). The top half of the Geelong list is as good as there has ever been. I expect them to win their next 3 and be close to top 2 at the end of round 7.
2. St Kilda: (+2), 1st, 4-0, WWW, Port (A), Dogs (A), Blues (H) ? Over the first 3 rounds Roo was the i50 target 12.7 times pg (6th overall) , next best at Saintland in a distant 2nd was Milne on 4.7. But it doesn?t end there: Roo was the club leader in scoring (2nd) and frees for (14th), second in contested marks (4th), and club best at less definable qualities such as work rate and leadership. Despite the loss of Roo, the Saints were sensational against a gallant Dockers. Taking the Roo factor out of the St Kilda equation I can?t rank them top despite their record. If they win the next two I will be out of excuses for not having them top, however a lingering doubt still hangs in my mind about the Roo-less Saints.
3. Brisbane: (+2), 2nd, 4-0, WWW, Melbourne (A), Sydney (A), Freo (H) ? Brisbane went a long way to answering some questions asked of them by finishing all over a slightly depleted Dogs. The Lions scored 60 of the last 85 points in the match confirming they are the ultimate strong finishing side of the AFL. Brownola are both top 10 inside 50 targets in the league, and the Lions are the leading rebound side from d50 and leading side for inside the forward 50. The Lions are starting to prove they are genuine contenders. However, something must be done about Travis Johnstone before he gets locked for being a tramp/village idiot before a crucial game.
4. Fremantle : (-1), 5th, 3-1, LWW, Tigers (H), Eagles (A), Lions (A) ? The Dockers were great against the Saints, but discovered that they are not quite at that level yet. The stats don?t really tell the story for Freo. They are 10th in possessions yet 2nd in scoring, 2nd in hit-outs yet middle of the pack in points conceded. The real story is in their pressure around the ground and defensive zoning yet they are only 8th in tackles. Freo are a prime example of why AFL can?t be defined purely on the basis of stats. At the end of the day they should take a lot of positives away from Etihad, with the next 2 expected wins.
5. Collingwood: (+4), 6th, 3-1, WLW, Essendon (H), Carlton (A), Roos (H) ? The Pies form is hot and cold. However, they are 3 and 1 and if you ask them they will agree that there is no benefit in playing their best footy in April. They shook off a tough week by making Hawthorn look Fitzroy-like circa 1996. Statistically nothing stands out, except perhaps tackling where they are top 5 in the league. There?s really no excuse for not winning at least 2 of the next 3, with all 3 exceedingly winnable, which would have them entrenched in the top 4.
6. Sydney: (0), 3rd, 3-1, WWW, Eagles (H), Lions (H), Cats (A) ? The Swans did enough over North to get the sausages (which will be pleasing to the sausage eater from Bunyip), but looked far from elite for long stretches. The most pleasing aspect of their win was the form of inexperienced players in Hannebery (BOG with 27 touches, 9 marks, 3 tackles and a goal), Lewis Jetta (17 touches) and Mumford (23 taps and 5 tackles). Complacency is their biggest enemy next weekend, and then the real test begins.
7. Western Bulldogs: (-5), 8th, 2-2, LWW, Adelaide (H), Saints (H), Demons (A) ? The Dogs have now lost 2 to 09 finalists and only beaten 2 bottom 8 sides. The worrying sign against the Lions was the inability to deal with defensive pressure. It looked like the ball was in the Lions forward 50 for most of the last half. The Dogs must be marked down on this week?s performance but have a chance for redemption by winning the next 3.
8. Melbourne: (+2), 9th, 2-2, WWL, Brisbane (H), Roos (A), Dogs (H) ? The Dees have definitely benefitted from a good early draw. The cornerstone of their game is defence which has only conceded a miserly 322 points (5th overall). They defeated the Tigers on the bit and Sylvia was spectacular in his season 2010 debut. Exciting times ahead for Demon fans, who for at least the last quarter century have not experienced anything as thrilling on-field as Noel Watson?s rendition of Waltzing Matilda before the 1988 grand final (if you don?t believe me YouTube it). Next week will probably assists in discovering how much they have improved.
9. Port Adelaide: (-2), 8th, 2-2, LLW, Saints (H), Crows (A), Bombers (A) ? Port look a long way from finalists after their last 2, however it is hard to give sides below them credit for being any better. Their points for and against are horrendous leaving them with the ranked 13th by percentage (75.86). The jury is still out on Port and I expect a much improved effort over the next 3 weeks. They really need to find a way to win 2 of 3 otherwise their early season success has been for nothing.
10. Carlton: (+2), 10th, 2-2, LL, Geelong (H), Collingwood (H), Saints (A) ? On paper the Blues flogged the Crows at AAMI to reignite their season. The truth is they may not have beaten more than half of the teams in the league on that performance. The Blues fall around the middle of the pack in most statistical categories. Judd was the shining light with 30 touches and 9 tackles in game 1 2010 for him. Despite very scratchy form, the Blues are even with the card plus a healthy 120.2%. The next 3 will find them out.
11. Hawthorn: (-3), 9th, 1-3, LLL, Roos (H), Bombers (A), Eagles (A) ? Unable to field over 30% of their best 22 the Hawks were ripe for the picking. The Pies didn?t miss the opportunity and flogged them by almost 11 goals. After 2 competitive weeks the dam wall finally burst. A key problem is skill errors with Sam Mitchell being the prime culprit. Mitchell ranks 1st in the league in turnovers and 4th in kicks direct to an opponent. Ruck woes continue with the Hawks ranked 16th in hit-outs. Only getting 2nd use at stoppages is having an effect on free kicks as well with the Hawks conceding a -5.3 differential. The next three aren?t impossible, but can?t afford to lose any more than 1 of them.
12. West Coast Eagles: (+3), 11th, 1-3, WLL, Sydney (A), Freo (H), Hawthorn (H) ? Can we read anything into the win against the woeful Bombers? Well there was a significant change: they made a conscious effort not to over possess by hand. Previously ranked 16th in the kick-to-handball ratio, they kicked 190 times to 167 handballs. The dividend from this was much greater scoring efficiency. The other pleasing matter was the return to form of Big Cox, even more pleasing was this achievement without the use of an iPhone. The Bombers were smashed in the ruck, and the Eagles now have a top three ruck combination statistically. They must capitalise on their improving form by winning a couple of their next three.
13. Essendon: (-2), 13th, 1-3, LWL, Collingwood (A), Hawthorn (H), Port (A) ? The curious case of Matthew Knights. Essendon were even or ahead in most statistical categories against the Eagles (hit outs, goals and free kicks being the exceptions) yet only managed to score 1 goal in a half of footy. I am now seriously worried about the Bombers. Over the season the only statistical category where they are above average is tackles (and behinds pg ? 1st). For a supposedly attacking side that is a damning stat. At this stage the game style appears to be failing. Essendon are like Pamela Anderson without makeup ? ugly, but with potential.
14. North Melbourne: (+1), 14th, 1-3, LWL, Hawthorn (A), Melbourne (H), Pies (A) ? The Roos look a long way off finals contention. They had the better of Sydney for about an hour on Saturday, but couldn?t go with the Swans when the game was there to be won. Ziebell would have learnt plenty by standing Goodes and Bastinac looks like he could be a good player. There are winnable games over the next three, but realistically the real value to North will be getting more games into their young players, refining structures and presenting the inexperienced coaches box with game day situations to learn from.
15. Adelaide: (-1), 15th, 0-4, LLL, Dogs (A), Port (H), Tigers (H) ? Even the return of ?Stiffy? Johncock didn?t seem to improve the much needed running game for the Crows. The 3rd quarter against the Blues must go down as one of the lowlights in footy history ? I just hope no immigrants were there for their first footy experience, if so, they are lost to AFL forever. Yet again McLeod and Edwards were 2 of the best 3 at 33 years old apiece, which doesn?t auger well for succession planning. The good news is there is only one direction from here, however if they lose the next 2 the year is finished.
16. Richmond: (0), 16th, 0-4, LLL, Freo (A), Geelong (A), Crows (A) ? The Tigers showed promising signs in spurts against the Dees and remained in the contest until half time. The 4th quarter performance also showed some character as it looked like they may have been in for a 3 figure hiding. For Tigers fans they need to satisfy themselves with these spurts for now. Statistically the Tigers are a basket case. They are ranked 16th in possessions, points conceded, marks, tackles and hit-outs. The next 2 also look bleak, but perhaps there is some evidence to suggest some development from younger players. Keep the faith!
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