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Thread: Probability of winning premiership after being 1st on ladder after Round 5

  1. #13
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    I'm not getting ahead of myself with this statement because I still think a premiership this year is an outside chance, but I really should have put a lazy $20 on Sydney when we where 51-1! The impossible dream is starting to become a little more realistic with the way the boys are playing and the fact that no team is really dominating. The boys could beat anyone on their day

  2. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by SwansFan1972 View Post
    That we basically have a lock on a finals spot (or catastrophically would be the only team in fifteen years to not make them from this current position)! I'll go with proposition one - and since the pre-season wish for most of us would have been to make the finals, anything beyond that is a happy bonus!

    As far as premierships go, dominating the ladder at this time of year often means diddly - just ask Adelaide! In recent years they've made being on the top rungs of the ladder at this time of year an art form. They were never able to turn it into even a grand final berth though! Fortunately for us, our history is somewhat different!
    The exciting thing for Swans fans is that the team is still at a stage of rapid improvement. They have only played five senior games together for goodness sake. Our FF has only reached senior playing standard last weekend after an interrupted pre-season. So we should be expecting ongoing improvement. The fixture order has been perfect for that - we found out what the standard should be in R1 then had four games to work out how the team should work together and now we're into some serious challenges. If the team continues to improve we should certainly be aiming to win a fair share of those and not fall out of the Top 4 - especially in a year when there doesn't seem to be an unbeatable team.

    Exciting times.

  3. #15
    Think positive! j s's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benevolent Ert View Post
    What do these stats tell us?
    Some people have a lot of spare time!

  4. #16
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    In my mind, we're already premiers...its just a matter of who it is we destroy by 10 goals on that last Saturday of September.

  5. #17
    Veterans List Big Al's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnno View Post
    In my mind, we're already premiers...its just a matter of who it is we destroy by 10 goals on that last Saturday of September.
    Ainslie...
    ..And the Swans are the Premiers...The Ultimate Team...The Ultimate Warriors. They have overcome the highly fancied Hawks in brilliant style. Sydney the 2012 Premiers - Gerard Whately ABC

    Here it is Again! - Huddo SEN

  6. #18
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    History is not with the Swans.

    Only once (or 25%) they have won the flag after being on top of the ladder in Round 5.

    Putting it another way, only on 16.7% when they have been number 1 after Round 5, have they won the flag. They were on top at Round 5 in 1909 (when they won), 1914, 1919, 1934, 1986 and 1998

  7. #19
    60% of the time it works EVERY time!

  8. #20
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    Let's not get carried away we have only beaten, albeit beaen comfortably, the 16th, 15th, 14th and 12th placed teams so far. We may have beaten St.Kilda if the correct 50m penalty was applied to the axing of Tadgh after he had marked against St.Kilda which would have then been a goal from the goal line.

    Whilst I am comfortable with my preseason wagers at odds of $3.00 to make the eight and $17.00 to make the top four, I'd like to see how we are fairing after the next five weeks of tough matches.

    Despite our new found depth, we probably don't need any more long term injuries to add to Bird, McGlynn and C Bolton.

    I am finding the form of Pyke and McNeill in the Ressies pleasing as they weren't really in preseason calculations for me.

  9. #21
    I had no idea there are so many maths nerds that are Swans fans.

    I also think I've got a really good chance of winning lotto if I buy a ticket once in a while.

  10. #22
    Aut vincere aut mori Thunder Shaker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by No 14 View Post
    History says that 24.6% of teams on top of the ladder after round 5 have won the premiership
    Keep a lid on it. We haven't beaten any side yet who's within cooee of the top half of the ladder.
    "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

  11. #23
    Veterans List Bas's Avatar
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    In other words, diddly squat statistic.
    In memory of my little Staffy - Dicey, 17.06.2005 to 1.12.2011- I'll miss you mate.

  12. #24
    Regardless of whom we have beaten so far this year, we are playing better than the past couple of years with a much fitter, younger, more eager side with better depth, in a wide open competition where every team has already lost at least once and every other team looks beatable - by us. So, this might just be a very good year for us.

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