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Thread: Probability of winning premiership after being 1st on ladder after Round 5

  1. #1

    Probability of winning premiership after being 1st on ladder after Round 5

    History says that 24.6% of teams on top of the ladder after round 5 have won the premiership
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    May the earth devour the West Coast Evils

  2. #2
    On the Rookie List swans_premiers's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by No 14 View Post
    History says that 24.6% of teams on top of the ladder after round 5 have won the premiership
    Which means prelim at worst.
    Adam Goodes: Rising Star 99, Brownlow 2003, 2006
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  3. #3
    Senior Player Bloody Hell's Avatar
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    I imagine this falls in line with the probability of a top 4 team winning the premiership - and the team leading after 5 rounds finishing in the top 4.

    Stats can be made to make anything be said about anything, fourfty percent of all people know that.
    The eternal connundrum "what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object" was finally solved when David Hasselhoff punched himself in the face.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by No 14 View Post
    History says that 24.6% of teams on top of the ladder after round 5 have won the premiership
    That means 75.4% haven't.

    Which round during the season is the greatest predictor of success in the GF? That is, the team on top in Round X goes on to win the GF more often than not?

  5. #5
    Eventual finishing position of the team on top of the ladder at Round 5 since the introduction of the final 8:

    2009: (St Kilda) 1st (lost GF)
    2008: (Geelong) 1st (lost GF)
    2007: (West Coast) 3rd (lost SF)
    2006: (West Coast) 1st (Premiers)
    2005: (West Coast) 2nd (lost GF)
    2004: (St Kilda) 3rd (lost PF)
    2003: (Brisbane) 3rd (Premiers)
    2002: (Brisbane) 2nd (Premiers)
    2001: (Hawthorn) 6th (lost PF)
    2000: (Essendon) 1st (Premiers)
    1999: (West Coast) 5th (lost SF)
    1998: (Sydney) 3rd (lost SF)
    1997: (West Coast) 5th (lost SF)
    1996: (Brisbane) 3rd (lost PF)
    1995: (Carlton) 1st (Premiers)
    1994: (Melbourne) 7th (lost PF)

    Premiers ladder position at Rd 5 since 1994:
    2009 - Geelong - 2nd
    2008 - Hawthorn - 2nd
    2007 - Geelong - 10th
    2006 - West Coast - 1st
    2005 - Sydney - 10th
    2004 - Port Adelaide - 2nd
    2003 - Brisbane - 1st
    2002 - Brisbane - 1st
    2001 - Brisbane - 9th
    2000 - Essendon - 1st
    1999 - Nth Melb - 12th
    1998 - Adelaide - 9th
    1997 - Adelaide - 12th
    1996 - Nth Melb - 3rd
    1995 - Carlton - 1st
    1994 - West Coast - 4th

    What do these stats tell us?
    Probably nothing

  6. #6
    here are more stats after R5... there is a website that gives all this stuff... am I allowed to publish its URL? Some blogs do not want directions other sites.

    Ladder Position after R5, no of times occured, percentge win of premiership, Last Time achieved, and who

    1st 28 24.6% 2002 Bris Lions
    2nd 24 21.1% 2008 Hawthorn
    3rd 16 14.0% 2009 Geelong
    4th 9 7.9% 1994 West Coast
    5th 10 8.8% 2005 Sydney
    6th 5 4.4% 1992 West Coast
    7th 8 7.0% 1991 Hawthorn
    8th 2 1.8% 1953 Collingwood
    9th 2 1.8% 1998 Adelaide
    10th 4 3.5% 2001 Bris Lions
    11th 1 0.9% 1999 Kangaroos
    12th 1 0.9% 1945 Carlton
    13th 1 0.9% 1993 Essendon
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    May the earth devour the West Coast Evils

  7. #7
    Sir Ashmole Gruntbucket hot potato's Avatar
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    Noice of you guys to research all those stats, but they just give me a headache. I'd just like Bolton to be fit again in 6-7 weeks.

    hp
    "He was proud of us when we won and he was still proud of us when we lost' Tami Roos about Paul Sept 06.

  8. #8
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    Statistics show that 55% of all statistics are wrong.
    Those who have the greatest power to hurt us are those we love.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by The Big Cat View Post
    Statistics show that 55% of all statistics are wrong.
    Source? AFAIK it's 45%...
    Officially on the Reid and Sumner bandwagon!

  10. #10
    The Tree Is Out There treespirit's Avatar
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    A lot better odds than I after round 1 I expect.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Benevolent Ert View Post
    Eventual finishing position of the team on top of the ladder at Round 5 since the introduction of the final 8:

    2009: (St Kilda) 1st (lost GF)
    2008: (Geelong) 1st (lost GF)
    2007: (West Coast) 3rd (lost SF)
    2006: (West Coast) 1st (Premiers)
    2005: (West Coast) 2nd (lost GF)
    2004: (St Kilda) 3rd (lost PF)
    2003: (Brisbane) 3rd (Premiers)
    2002: (Brisbane) 2nd (Premiers)
    2001: (Hawthorn) 6th (lost PF)
    2000: (Essendon) 1st (Premiers)
    1999: (West Coast) 5th (lost SF)
    1998: (Sydney) 3rd (lost SF)
    1997: (West Coast) 5th (lost SF)
    1996: (Brisbane) 3rd (lost PF)
    1995: (Carlton) 1st (Premiers)
    1994: (Melbourne) 7th (lost PF)

    Premiers ladder position at Rd 5 since 1994:
    2009 - Geelong - 2nd
    2008 - Hawthorn - 2nd
    2007 - Geelong - 10th
    2006 - West Coast - 1st
    2005 - Sydney - 10th
    2004 - Port Adelaide - 2nd
    2003 - Brisbane - 1st
    2002 - Brisbane - 1st
    2001 - Brisbane - 9th
    2000 - Essendon - 1st
    1999 - Nth Melb - 12th
    1998 - Adelaide - 9th
    1997 - Adelaide - 12th
    1996 - Nth Melb - 3rd
    1995 - Carlton - 1st
    1994 - West Coast - 4th

    What do these stats tell us?
    Probably nothing
    That we basically have a lock on a finals spot (or catastrophically would be the only team in fifteen years to not make them from this current position)! I'll go with proposition one - and since the pre-season wish for most of us would have been to make the finals, anything beyond that is a happy bonus!

    As far as premierships go, dominating the ladder at this time of year often means diddly - just ask Adelaide! In recent years they've made being on the top rungs of the ladder at this time of year an art form. They were never able to turn it into even a grand final berth though! Fortunately for us, our history is somewhat different!

  12. #12
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    65% of percentile statistics work out to be 35% of the average facts?

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