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Thread: The Draft - Victims of our own success

  1. #1

    The Draft - Victims of our own success

    Before I start, a quick word of warning. The following may bore the pants off some of you if you are not interested in figures.

    One of the main problems with our level of success over the past decade (only one year missing the finals since 2003) is that we miss out on the top draft picks. It has been said in the past that, as a team in a fickle market, we can't afford to "bottom out" as many clubs do, as it will severely affect our local following. As a result, we traditionally "top up" with players from other clubs, and have been very successful in this method of list regeneration.

    In recent years, Collingwood went from grand finalists in 2003 to gaining picks 2 and 5 only a couple of years later, enabling them to select Dale Thomas and Scott Pendlebury. West Coast, after beating us in 2006, followed a similar path, and now have Nic Naitanui, Luke Shuey, Brad Sheppard and Andrew Gaff.

    Without going too far into who picked up who, I have looked at the top 20 draft picks since 2000. In the past 11 drafts, we have had both the fewest top 20 selections and top 10 selections. This is including Gold Coast, who have only participated once.

    Top 20: 20 - Melbourne; 16 - Essendon, West Coast; 15 - Port Adelaide, Richmond, Western Bulldogs, 14 - North Melbourne, Carlton; 12 - Brisbane Lions; 11 - St Kilda, Adelaide, Fremantle; 10 - Collingwood, Geelong; 8 - Gold Coast; 7 - SYDNEY.

    Top 10: 9 - North Melbourne; 8 - Hawthorn, Richmond, St Kilda, Carlton, Essendon, Western Bulldogs; 7 - West Coast, Melbourne; 6 - Brisbane Lions, Collingwood, Fremantle, Gold Coast; 5 - Port Adelaide; 4 - Adelaide, Geelong; 2 - SYDNEY.

    Only TWO top 10 selections in 11 years. So we miss the silky smooth skills of the best available kids, and have to settle for the lesser abled players. Don't get me wrong, I love our players. It's just a pity that, because of our success and our market, we don't get the chance for something special. We're lucky that, next draft, we will have a potential top 10 pick come to us later through using our first pick for Tom Mitchell.

    The other worrying thing about our numbers is what ends up happening to the players we select. Of out 7 top 20 picks, three are no longer at the club. Patrick Veszpremi was traded to the Bulldogs after only a handful of games, and is still yet to play senior game there. His replacement, Andrejs Everitt, was originally taken at pick 11, and has struggled with injury this year. Our other two, Daniel O'Keefe and Josh Willoughby, failed to register a game with us. So when we have the earlier selections, we tend to waste them. This leaves us with 4 of our top 20 selections from the past 11 drafts - Jarrad McVeigh, Gary Rohan, Lewis Johnston and Lewis Jetta. Two of these - Rohan and Johnston - have also battled injury in their time at the club.

    Just a final note: in the year we selected Veszpremi with pick 11, Hawthorn used pick 12 to recruit Cyril Rioli.

  2. #2
    At least we got it right in 2009 though;

    38. Sam Reid to Sydney
    39. Sam Grimley to Hawthorn.

    As long as you learn from your mistakes : )

  3. #3
    In addition, this is where our current list have come from:

    Top 10 picks: McVeigh (5), Rohan (6), Bolton (8)
    11-20: Johnston (12), Jetta (14)
    21-30: Lamb (21), Meredith (26), LRT (29), Hannebery (30)
    31-40: Moore (31), Reid (38), Parker (40)
    41-50: Goodes (43), Currie (49)
    51-60: Sumner (54), TDL (55), O'Keefe (56), Johnson (57), Bird (59)
    61-70: Heath (61 - injured), Malceski (64)
    Others: Spangher (73), White (79), Pyke (101)
    Rookie/International: Jack, Kennelly, McKaigue, Grundy, Smith, Bevan, Kruger, Otten, Gordon, Haren, McNeil

    Trades (original drafting): Everitt (11), Shaw (18 - FS), Seaby (22), Richards (27), Kennedy (40), Mattner (rookie 51), McGlynn (rookie 55), Mumford (rookie 57)

  4. #4
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    I'd be interested to see the success rate for top ten draft picks in general. A lot of clubs seem to waste them. Just look at some of the screwups Richmond or Fremantle have made with their high draft picks over the years.

    You can tell a lot about a kid at 17 or 18, but even leaving aside the fact that players don't always develop the way you expect, things like their character, commitment, mentality for coping with the big time... that's a bit of a crapshoot.

  5. #5
    Senior Player ernie koala's Avatar
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    A few of the interesting things to come from these stats is that;
    Collingwood and Geelong are both also down the bottom end of number of picks...they're going OK at the minute.
    Where as Richmond and Melbourne have had plenty of picks.....they're not going OK and appear years away from being contenders.
    So I suppose it's who you pick not how many, how they fit your club and your playing style, who's already on your list etc etc...
    So it's all a bit murky unless you hit the jackpot like Collingwood did with picks 2 and 5.

    Having said that, I think the mantra that the Swans can't afford to bottom out is rubbish....Just look at our dwindling attendances, and read these boards.
    Finishing in and around the 8 year after year, with no relative progress, excites very few...Except perhaps coaches who keep their jobs.
    In Sydney, and I suspect most other markets,success is not measured by just making the finals...It's about being a contender.... that's what gets people interested and excited, and ultimately bums on seats and high memberships.
    There is nothing better than watching your team claw their way from oblivion to become a contender......Ala 1995 onwards, 2003 onwards. That's how you catch the imagination of supporters, Sydney included.
    Last edited by ernie koala; 15th August 2011 at 05:21 PM.
    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it's time to pause and reflect... MT

  6. #6
    pr. dim-melb; m not f
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    Toothy, I assume you're saying Collingwood and West Coast both tanked.
    Ernie K, are you saying we should?
    He reminds him of the guys, close-set, slow, and never rattled, who were play-makers on the team. (John Updike, seeing Josh Kennedy in a crystal ball)

  7. #7
    dimelb - yes.

    Ernie - the way I would look at it is that Collingwood and Geelong have had fewer picks over that period due to their success in that same time (such as we have), however Collingwood used the time in between their 02/03 grand finals and their 09/10 climb to use the draft. Geelong did the same.

  8. #8
    Senior Player ernie koala's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dimelb View Post
    Toothy, I assume you're saying Collingwood and West Coast both tanked.
    Ernie K, are you saying we should?
    No, I'm simply saying that Roos mantra that Sydney can't afford to bottom out is rubbish.
    A detailed explanation is in the last paragraph of my last post.
    But I definitely think, as I think Tooth does, that we took far too few draft picks during Roos's reign.
    Last edited by ernie koala; 15th August 2011 at 05:53 PM.
    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it's time to pause and reflect... MT

  9. #9
    We don't need to tank - we need need to work out what we have that other clubs will wan't and at what price - we draft terrific guys , hard workers but when did we get somebody beside Mumford that their club was desperate to keep e,g Pies draft Jolly & Ball , Geelong get Ottens, Carlton get Judd, Hawthorn get Burgoyne - we have not traded for young class since I don't know when - I love him but no team wanted Jude when he was on the table and Carlton wanted O'Keefe for free

  10. #10
    Okay, because R-1 mentioned it (and further apologies to those bored by this stuff), here are each club's top 10 selections since 2000 (remember, it's where they were originally drafted):
    Adelaide - 4: Lawrence Angwin (7), John Meesen (8), Phil Davis (10), Patrick Dangerfield (10)
    Brisbane Lions - 6: Jared Brennan (3), Matthew Leuenberger (4), Jared Polec (5), Daniel Rich (7), Lachlan Henderson (8), Mitch Clark (9)
    Carlton - 8: Marc Murphy (1), Bryce Gibbs (1), Matthew Kreuzer (1), Andrew Walker (2), Josh Kennedy (4), Luke Livingstone (4), Chris Yarran (6), Jordan Russell (9)
    Collingwood - 6: Dale Thomas (2), Alan Didak (3), Scott Pendlebury (5), Ben Reid (8), Nathan Brown (10), Chris Egan (10)
    Essendon - 8: Scott Gumbleton (2), Michael Hurley (5), David Myers (6), Kepler Bradley (6), Patrick Ryder (7), Dyson Heppell (8), Jake Melksham (10), Jason Laycock (10)
    Fremantle - 6: Stephen Hill (3), Graham Polak (4), Anthony Morabito (4), Rhys Palmer (7), Marcus Drum (10), Ryley Dunn (10)
    Geelong - 4: Joel Selwood (7), Kane Tenace (7), Andrew Mackie (7), Jimmy Bartel (8)
    Gold Coast - 6: David Swallow (1), Harley Bennell (2), Sam Day (3), Josh Caddy (7), Dion Prestia (9), Daniel Gorringe (10)
    Hawthorn - 8: Luke Hodge (1), Jarryd Roughead (2), Xavier Ellis (3), Lance Franklin (5), Mitch Thorp (6), Beau Dowler (6), Jordan Lewis (7), Luke Brennan (8)
    Melbourne - 7: Tom Scully (1), Jack Watts (1), Jack Trengove (2), Colin Sylvia (3), Cale Morton (4), Brock McLean (5), Luke Molan (9)
    North Melbourne - 9: Daniel Wells (2), Lachie Hansen (3), Ben Cunnington (5), Dylan Smith (6), David Hale (7), Daniel Motlop (8), Jack Ziebell (9), Hamish McIntosh (9), David Trotter (9)
    Port Adelaide - 5: Hamish Hartlett (4), Travis Boak (5), Steven Salopek (6), John Butcher (8), Andrew Moore (9)
    Richmond - 8: Brett Deledio (1), Trent Cotchin (2), Dustin Martin (3), Richard Tambling (4), Reece Conca (6), Tyrone Vickery (8), Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls (8), Kayne Pettifer (9)
    St Kilda - 8: Nick Riewoldt (1), Brendon Goddard (1), Justin Koschitzke (2), Luke Ball (2), Xavier Clarke (5), Raphael Clarke (8), Ben McEvoy (9), David Armitage (9)
    Sydney - 2: Jarrad McVeigh (5), Gary Rohan (6)
    West Coast - 7: Nic Naitanui (2), Chris Masten (3), Chris Judd (3), Andrew Gaff (4), Andrew McDougall (5), Ashley Sampi (6), Brad Sheppard (7)
    Western Bulldogs - 8: Adam Cooney (1), Ryan Griffen (3), Farren Ray (4), Tim Walsh (4), Jarrad Grant (5), Tom Williams (6), Sam Power (10), Jordan McMahon (10)

    Make of that what you will.

  11. #11
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    we should have gone after Andrew Walker last year when he wanbted out....
    I hope we go after Taylor Walker this year..problem with the high draft picks is that if your team if travelling well you always tend to go with who you know performs so the yngr players tend to miss out..
    But on the other side when you look at the players we have on traded in that time, who really has gone on to be an out an out success, whereas with the recycled players who we have traded for generally have performed much better for us than their existing clubs.
    It is also rare that these days in the high profile media landscape would clubs trade for Wild Child players such as Barry Hall, Tony Lockett regardless of how they play...
    you only have to look at Fev, can still kick goals but who is going to pick him up.

  12. #12
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    Jeez the Saints, Pies and Bombers did really well. Most of the others I don't think have had better than a 50% strike rate.

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