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Thread: Can the Sydney Swans win the Premiership?

  1. #1
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    Can the Sydney Swans win the Premiership?

    Do the Sydney Swans have what it takes to win the 2012 AFL Premiership? | The Roar

    Pretty good analysis I think. Notices how good our midfield actually is, rates our defence, but reckons it's all on Sammy.

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    Senior Player GongSwan's Avatar
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    If it all comes down to Sam's performance, we could be in worse shape, still I believe another year or two for Sam to really come into his own, and by then we may be missing a couple of our more experienced players. We have had some success though, in finding ready made players like Parker, Rohan, AJ, and getting Benny and JPK was a major boost. It will be an interesting year to see if any of the new recruits stand up, hopefully better than Everitt has so far. I think depth will become a major factor as the year wears on
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    Proud Tragic Swan Primmy's Avatar
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    Pretty decent article (says a died in the redandwhite wool tragic) about the Swans and team in general. Worth a read.
    If you've never jumped from one couch to the other to save yourself from lava then you didn't have a childhood

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    Regular in the Side nomae's Avatar
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    Genuinely well-written article. Must be a Sydneysider; no Melbourne journo knows that much about the Swans.

    Yet it worries me how relevant his points were... who's going to kick all our goals this year? (Besides Adam's 40 odd)

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    On the Rookie List Jewels's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nomae View Post
    Genuinely well-written article. Must be a Sydneysider; no Melbourne journo knows that much about the Swans.

    Yet it worries me how relevant his points were... who's going to kick all our goals this year? (Besides Adam's 40 odd)
    Isn't this the reason Morton and Walsh were brought in?
    The club realized that there was too much load on Sammy and have set about trying to correct it. The author doesn't seem to have explored that avenue at all.

  6. #6
    Yes, I think it's a reasonable assessment. It concludes we are better than last year and can make the top 4 but still off the pace of the front-runners. I like to see what the professional punters think as a comparison. Sportbet quoting the following:

    Swans to:

    Make Top 8 $1.82
    Make Top 4 $4
    To Make GF $13
    To win GF $31
    ... they rate us 8th on each of these bets, so they think we will over-achieve if we make top 4.

    They also quote Swans to:
    Be Top Non-Vic Team $5 (they rate us 3rd, behind WCE and Freo)

    I've put my money on Top 8, Top 4 and Top Non-Vic Team
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    Sammy didn't train at Lakeside this morning.

  8. #8
    Goals are certainly a problem. Geelong kicked 426 in 2011. We kicked 292. They raked 1st in that stat while we were 10th. While that speaks highly of our defensive capabilities, to be genuinely in the race (ie top 3) we will need maybe 40-60 more goals (still contingent on the strength of our backs). It should be noted that each of the top 5 teams scored at least 356 goals.

    Frankly I don't know if that is possible. Obviously our efficiency was well down so if we improve in that stat markedly maybe we can make some ground, say an optimistic 20-30 goals. Nevertheless, we will need to find another avenue to goal and I suppose that's where Mitch Morton and Tommy Walsh come in. Honestly unless Mitch produces one of his best seasons to date, I'll remain skeptical about our chances.

    Still it must be said that this team surprises me at every turn, so maybe we will suddenly become a goal scoing machine.

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    Interesting read and a fair analysis.
    I agree with the comments about the need for more goals, but there is only the briefest mention in the article of what contribution Rohan might make in that area, when we already know he is a potential gamebreaker (I did say potential). The factor not mentioned at all is the contribution a resting ruckman could make specifically in goalkicking. If we go in with Mummy and Pykey, our rate of goalkicking could rise significantly. And we still haven't mentioned Cunningham.
    The fact is that depending on the distribution of injuries, of course we could win the premiership, but if too many of them happen to us, we won't. And if injuries are evenly distributed and removed as a factor, the odds are against us. Which, of course, is how we like it!
    He reminds him of the guys, close-set, slow, and never rattled, who were play-makers on the team. (John Updike, seeing Josh Kennedy in a crystal ball)

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by DLBIA14 View Post
    Goals are certainly a problem. Geelong kicked 426 in 2011. We kicked 292. They raked 1st in that stat while we were 10th. While that speaks highly of our defensive capabilities, to be genuinely in the race (ie top 3) we will need maybe 40-60 more goals (still contingent on the strength of our backs). It should be noted that each of the top 5 teams scored at least 356 goals.

    Frankly I don't know if that is possible. Obviously our efficiency was well down so if we improve in that stat markedly maybe we can make some ground, say an optimistic 20-30 goals. Nevertheless, we will need to find another avenue to goal and I suppose that's where Mitch Morton and Tommy Walsh come in. Honestly unless Mitch produces one of his best seasons to date, I'll remain skeptical about our chances.

    Still it must be said that this team surprises me at every turn, so maybe we will suddenly become a goal scoing machine.
    I dont think it will come from Walsh (great if it does!) probably next year for Walsh. Hopefully Morton/Rohan can contibute 30+ and either Pyke or White for another 20+ and we would have a chance of top 4, the spread of goals from our rotating fwd/Midfielders will play a huge part.

    Cheers

    waz

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    Walsh might contribute indirectly by taking heat off Sammy, of course.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wazza View Post
    I dont think it will come from Walsh (great if it does!) probably next year for Walsh. Hopefully Morton/Rohan can contibute 30+ and either Pyke or White for another 20+ and we would have a chance of top 4, the spread of goals from our rotating fwd/Midfielders will play a huge part.

    Cheers

    waz
    Love to be wrong, but i suspect Walsh is still a way away from being a forward line saviour. Pikey, on the other hand,has proved to be more and more of a handful on the forward line during this preseason. Today he played strongly in the match prac,kicked a couple and had at least one assist.

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