Home preliminary vs collingwood

[cruiser]

No such thing. It's the Law of Probability and has nothing to do with averages but rather factors which have various influences on the result. If Collingwood have better personnel and effectively counter our game plan, then the Laws of Probability say they will continue to beat us. If the result was always a 50 - 50 chance then probability would say we have a 50% chance of winning next time. If we have always had a 50 - 50 chance of beating them then losing the last ten in a row would have had a probability of 1024 to 1.

Whatever.

[Triple B]

Whatever.

LOL, you missed your chance for the pedantic retort to his pedantic reply Cruiser, it's one chance in 1024 which is 1023 to 1, not 1024 to 1....

[Triple B]

Every year the teams that lose the Qualifying Final get talked down and the victor in the Elimination Final gets talked up (we were in this boat in 2008 and 2010) but the fact remains that in the past 10 years, 39 out of the 40 teams that play in a Preliminary Final are the Top 4 teams. That means only once out of 20 semi finals has the lower ranked team won. I'd back Collingwood and Adelaide to win this week.

I've won handsomely over the years following this very rule. I'd have won even more however would never bet against Sydney when they were ridiculously short before the Hawks semi last year. I know the prices were seriously all over the place because of the Buddy knee factor, but we were never entitled to be anywhere near favourites on the back of a win over StKilda.

That said, if the rule is ever going to be broken, the Pies/Weagles game is when it will happen given it is 4 v 5 and there was not much between them in the end. If not for a seriously bad injury run which is now better, the Eagles probably would have edged the Pies out of 4th.

Maybe I'm just hoping for a Weagles win. We obviously have an excellent recent record against them and they are travelling to Melbourne this week on a 6 day break and if they win will need to come back to Sydney, again on a 6-day break. May just be the straw that breaks that camel's back...

[GoRhino]

Any news on ticketing? AFL website is not giving any valuable info. I need to organize ravel and leave etc as we are playing on Friday night. Any help appreciated.

Could anyone in the know advise if there is any doubt about the Venue for the Preliminary Final. There has been some scuttlebuck in the media that there is a possibility the game could be played at the SCG.

[neilfws]

Could anyone in the know advise if there is any doubt about the Venue for the Preliminary Final. There has been some scuttlebuck in the media that there is a possibility the game could be played at the SCG.

It's booked in for the Friday night at ANZ.

I think the confusion came about because the date was uncertain, due to NRL games. Venue was never in doubt.

[barry]

I've won handsomely over the years following this very rule.

Ive been aware of this for a while, but never put any money down on it.

With the NRL finals now like the AFL, I think I might put $50 on all 4 finals in both codes this weekend, all backing the top 4 loser.

[Triple B]

Could anyone in the know advise if there is any doubt about the Venue for the Preliminary Final. There has been some scuttlebuck in the media that there is a possibility the game could be played at the SCG.

There was a potential for a problem if Souths won on the weekend, meaning 2 NRL and 1 AFL Prelims would needed to have been fit into that weekend. With one of the PF's in league now in Melbourne, problem solved...

[AnnieH]

Which one do I want to lose more - Colliwobbles or Wet Cokers.

[RogueSwan]

It's booked in for the Friday night at ANZ...

Well that's me out, definitely can't get to Sydney for a Friday night game, bugger.

[GongSwan]

I think Dermie was spot on yesterday when he said all the teams that have played finals so far have looked tired, I think the week off is huge. I hope Collingwood get through and for us to break our losing srteak in a final...how good would that be Knocking Collingwood out off a prelim...

Cheers

waz

Yep, this, knocking those ferals out in a prelim would be almost as sweet as knocking off the GF

[Nico]

With Maxwell likely to rubbed out it is very hard to see the Pies beating the WC. The Pies weren't that bad against Hawthorn and North was very poor, so that brings them back to a close game. Was it a case of North poor or the WC very good? If Maxwell doesn't play their backline is much the poor for that against a very hot WC forward line. History looks to be in grave danger on this one.

[Danzar]

No such thing. It's the Law of Probability and has nothing to do with averages but rather factors which have various influences on the result. If Collingwood have better personnel and effectively counter our game plan, then the Laws of Probability say they will continue to beat us. If the result was always a 50 - 50 chance then probability would say we have a 50% chance of winning next time. If we have always had a 50 - 50 chance of beating them then losing the last ten in a row would have had a probability of 1024 to 1.

Hah. Good post.