Probability of winning the finals
Based on today's betting odds here's the probability of winning the respective finals:
Swans vs Collingwood
Swans - 58.5%
Collingwood - 41.5%
Hawks vs Crows
Hawks - 81.9%
Crows - 18.1%
Grand Final
Hawks - 58.0%
Adelaide - 18.9%
Collingwood - 15.0%
Crows - 8.1%
I think you mean Swans have 18.9% chance of winning the GF...
Written off again ... I like itOriginally Posted by iigrover
Driver of the Dan Hannebery bandwagon....all aboard. 4th April 09
All I know about betting is that I'm going to have something on both the swans and Collingwood to win at under 39.5 points. It'll either add to the celebrations if we win, or at least give some monetary offset to the disappointment if we lose. I can't see either team winning by more than 6 1/2 goals however, so I think 39.5 or under is a safe option.
Oops!
Yes - Swans are 18.9% chance.
That probability will clearly go up if we win this game. Part of the reason our odds are lower is that our opposition is expected to be a lot stronger than Adelaide, therefore our chances of making the GF are lower than Hawthorn's so our current odds of winning it are similarly lower.
Today's a draft of your epitaph
That's correct. Based on the above figures, the betting agents are saying that assuming we win this Friday and not knowing the outcome of Saturday's match, the probability of us winning the GF is 32%. It wil then change again, after the outcome of Saturday's match.
Feeling very geeky right now.
I'm sticking $10 on swans by over 60+ points. Should get goods odds I think.
Amd if that happens johnno I'll payout that amount too!
Would be an emphatic way to end the hoodoo
Odds mean nothing, if you want it bad enough.
How do they work them out anyway, final odds are only a reflection on other peoples betting (where the money lies).
Lets just hope that center link is inundated on Monday with pies supporters saying they got no money
Go Bloods
Bookmarking it!!!
It's not the probability of winning. It is the bookmakers' educated guess at what will make them the most money, based on popular opinion as to who's going to win.
Popular opinion has not always been correct.
177th Senior AFL Match - Round 4, 2009 - Sydney vs Carlton, SCG. This is obviously out of date. I suppose I'll update it once I could be bothered sitting down with the fixture and working it out....
Des' Weblog
Reply With Quote
Bookmarks