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Thread: Trading list

  1. #1

    Trading list

    This board has become a cure for insomnia in recent weeks, and looks like staying that way until next month.

    So, how about this for a scenario . . . Fast Eddie has told the AFL that the Colliwobbles squad is still undermanned, and the Commission has agreed to re-open the trading period for one day on 1 Feb to give the Magpies a chance to grab some established talent.

    Now Paul Roos is in a quandary. At trade time, every coach has a trade list - a ranking of all players in order of tradeability, but everyone at the Swans is flat out preparing for the new season. As a last resort, he rings you and asks you to prepare the trade rankings for him. "I've seen your posts on RWO," he says, "and you're obviously the right person for the job".

    Leaving out the draftees from 2002 and 2003, there are 30 players to rank. But remember, this isn't a best and fairest list or a popularity contest. The ranking is of each player's relative value to the Swans IN THE FUTURE, not of their past performance.

    Here's the list . . . see what you can make of it. Rank the full list from 1 (the most future value) to 30 (the least future value):

    Luke Ablett
    Jason Ball
    Leo Barry
    Craig Bolton
    Jude Bolton
    Amon Buchanan
    Jared Crouch
    Nick Davis
    Stephen Doyle
    Ben Fixter
    Nic Fosdike
    Adam Goodes
    Barry Hall
    Heath James
    Tadhg Kennelly
    Brett Kirk
    Ben Mathews
    Stuart Maxfield
    James Meiklejohn
    Matthew Nicks
    Ryan O?Keefe
    Michael O?Loughlin
    Mark Powell
    Lewis Roberts-Thomson
    Jason Saddington
    Andrew Schauble
    Adam Schneider
    Jarrad Sundqvist
    Rowan Warfe
    Paul Williams

  2. #2
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    OK - I'll have a go.

    Firstly, I am working on the basis that the objective is to win a premiership in the next three years. I am not looking beyond that. Players who have (probably) two or fewer years left in them have been discounted somewhat (also allowed for a possible fall off from their top level in the immediate future) but otherwise I haven't taken age into consideration.

    My rankings take into account not only the ability of the player but also their relative importance to the team. The clearest example of this is Schaubs - I don't rate him as the 5th best player in the team but we don't currently have much to replace him and he tends to get a very important job done week after week.

    I have probably discounted potential for improvement more than others might. I'm working mostly on what I've seen rather than what might be. For example, I'd like to think that in 12 months time I'd be ranking the likes of Schneider much higher but I want to see another season of the same and evidence of improvement before I mortage the kitchen sink for him.

    With that said my list reads as follows:


    1 Adam Goodes
    2 Barry Hall
    3 Jude Bolton
    4 Michael O?Loughlin (slightly discounted due to knee concerns)
    5 Andrew Schauble
    6 Leo Barry
    7 Stephen Doyle (would be higher if not for injuries - prob at no 2 given the importance of a quality ruckman and the age of Ball)
    8 Brett Kirk
    9 Paul Williams
    10 Tadhg Kennelly
    11 Jason Saddington
    12 Nic Fosdike
    13 Ben Mathews (Mr Consistent)
    14 Jared Crouch (ditto)
    15 Craig Bolton (want to see him back this year's performance up)
    16 Stuart Maxfield
    17 Nick Davis (classy, talented but his role is "icing on the cake" - maybe higher in 12 months if he proves to be more versatile)
    18 Ryan O?Keefe
    19 Adam Schneider
    20 Jason Ball (big age/injury discount, doesn't reflect immediate importance or ability)
    21 Luke Ablett
    22 Ben Fixter (injury discount)
    23 Lewis Roberts-Thomson
    24 Mark Powell
    25 Heath James (big injury discount)
    26 Jarrad Sundqvist
    27 Matthew Nicks
    28 James Meiklejohn
    29 Amon Buchanan
    30 Rowan Warfe

    My list only takes into account my perceived importance to the team, not the value I think they might get on the open market and therefore not necessarily the order in which I would be prepared to trade them. For example, I don't think other clubs realise just how good Leo is and we wouldn't get anything like "fair value" for him in a trade. Therefore he would be lower down a trade list.
    Last edited by liz; 10th January 2004 at 04:19 PM.

  3. #3
    1. Adam Goodes
    2. Barry Hall
    3. Tadhg Kennelly
    4. Michael O?Loughlin
    5. Jude Bolton
    6. Leo Barry
    7. Brett Kirk
    8. Paul Williams
    9. Craig Bolton
    10. Andrew Schauble
    11. Jason Saddington
    12. Stuart Maxfield
    13. Nick Davis
    14. Nic Fosdike
    15. Stephen Doyle
    16. Jason Ball
    17. Lewis Roberts-Thomson
    18. Adam Schneider
    19. Jared Crouch
    20. Ben Mathews
    21. Ryan O?Keefe
    22. Luke Ablett
    23. Ben Fixter
    24. Heath James
    25. James Meiklejohn
    26. Mark Powell
    27. Jarrad Sundqvist
    28. Matthew Nicks
    29. Amon Buchanan
    30. Rowan Warfe
    Once was, now elsewhere

  4. #4
    Senior Player monopoly19's Avatar
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    Adam Goodes
    Barry Hall
    Michael O?Loughlin
    Tadhg Kennelly

    Jude Bolton
    Stephen Doyle

    Craig Bolton
    Leo Barry
    Brett Kirk
    Andrew Schauble
    Jared Crouch

    Ben Mathews
    Adam Schneider
    Lewis Roberts-Thomson
    Jason Saddington
    Stuart Maxfield
    Paul Williams

    Ben Fixter
    Nick Davis
    Jason Ball
    Ryan O?Keefe
    Nic Fosdike

    Luke Ablett
    Mark Powell
    James Meiklejohn
    Heath James

    Amon Buchanan
    Jarrad Sundqvist
    Matthew Nicks
    Rowan Warfe

    I could keep on changing it 'til the cows come home, but I think I'll leave it at this. Having difficulties with where to put Ben Mathews and Jason Saddington in particular...

    I left the gaps because I was kind of grouping them

  5. #5
    Carpe Noctem CureTheSane's Avatar
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    1. Adam Goodes (duh)
    2. Barry Hall (would be #1 in many teams in the AFL)
    3. Michael O?Loughlin
    4. Stuart Maxfield
    5. Nick Davis (will become vital)
    6. Jason Ball (the difference between 3rd spot and a flag last season IMO)
    7. Adam Schneider (think he is really on his way now)
    8. Tadhg Kennelly (last year may well have been in the bottom 5)
    9. Brett Kirk
    10. Jared Crouch (still widely unsung)
    11. Leo Barry
    12. Paul Williams (hope he has a blinder and proves my gut feeling wrong)
    13. Luke Ablett (I've a good feeling about him)
    14. Ben Fixter (hope he's back for rd 1)
    15. Jason Saddington
    16. Jude Bolton
    17. Craig Bolton
    18. Ben Mathews
    19. Amon Buchanan
    20. Andrew Schauble
    21. Lewis Roberts-Thomson
    22. Ryan O?Keefe
    23. Heath James
    24. Nic Fosdike (many may thing he should be higher, but I'm not a huge fan at the moment)
    25. James Meiklejohn
    26. Stephen Doyle (a costant concern - something we could do without)
    27. Jarrad Sundqvist
    28. Mark Powell
    29. Rowan Warfe
    30. Matthew Nicks
    The difference between insanity and genius is measured only in success.

  6. #6
    Scenario: The AFL has agreed to Eddie's terms, but the draft selections don't kick in until 2007-2008. You've been asked to quarantine a side for that period.

    Assumptions: Certain players are gone. Trades have been made. Rookies have been promoted (I've bent the rules)

    The question is: What will the Swans look like around 2007-08


    Core Squad
    1 Adam Goodes
    2 Jude Bolton
    3 Stephen Doyle
    4 Lewis Roberts-Thomson
    5 Nic Fosdike
    6 Paul Bevan
    7 Ray Hall
    8 Ben Mathews
    9 Jared Crouch
    10 Craig Bolton (want to see him back this year's performance up)
    11 Nick Davis
    12 Ryan O?Keefe
    13 Adam Schneider
    14 Luke Ablett
    15 Ben Fixter
    16 Mark Powell
    17 Heath James
    18 Tim Schmidt

    Emerging Talent and Hard Tryers
    19 Nick Malceski
    20 Jarrad McVeigh
    21 Josh Thewlis
    22 Josh Willoughby
    23 Matthew Davis
    24 Andrew Ericksen
    25 Scott McGlone
    26 Daniel Hunt
    27 Jarrad Sundqvist
    28 James Meiklejohn
    29 Amon Buchanan

    Veterans (approaching end of shelf life)
    30 Barry Hall
    31 Michael O?Loughlin
    32 Leo Barry
    33 Brett Kirk
    34 Jason Saddington (has adopted Rowan Warfe status ie uncuttable

    Long Gone (laid the foundation to get us close)
    35 Jason Ball
    36 Rowan Warfe
    37 Stuart Maxfield
    38 Andrew Schauble
    39 Paul Williams
    40 Matthew Nicks
    41 Tadhg Kennelly (got homesick)

  7. #7
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    1. Adam Goodes
    2. Barry Hall
    3. Jude Bolton
    4. Tadhg Kennelly (my instinct is that he will become pivotal...either as the attacking backman...or on the ball)
    5. Michael O?Loughlin (IMO was the difference between a Grand Final place and third) - part of me wants to rank him lower because of his fragility but until Davis and/or Schneider prove themselves to be 40+ goalkickers he is really important)
    6. Andrew Schauble (IMO, apart from Tadgh its hard to separate the backline...we had one of the best collective backlines last year because of how it worked as a unit)
    7. Craig Bolton
    8. Stuart Maxfield (easy to underestimate the value of a captain...Maxfield seems to be more of an inspiration in terms of what he does to get the most out of his ability...which is what the likes of Davis, Nicks, and all younger players need)
    9. Jason Ball
    10. Brett Kirk (maybe should be even higher for the job he does on the oppositions best running player...but I want to see him do it for another season)
    11. Paul Williams (unfortunately I think his value is starting to be diluted...he spends alot more time down in the back half than I think is ideal...he can kick goals on the run from around 50..and I think we need that more)
    12. Jason Saddington (much maligned...but he beats 75% of his opponents..its only the very big CHFs he has trouble with)
    13. Nick Davis
    14. Adam Schneider (these two could be ranked either way...need one of them to kick 40+ goals, take some pressure off our reliance on O'Loughlin)
    15. Leo Barry (I am regretting placing him so low even as I type this)
    16. Nic Fosdike
    17. Jared Crouch
    18. Heath James (if, and we know that its a big IF, he stays injury free, this guy will leap up about 10 places)
    19. Ryan O'Keefe
    20. Ben Fixter (another who could leapfrog if his form at the end of 2002 is what we see this year)
    21. Ben Mathews (i really have trouble rating him...and deciding where I would play hm when i put our best team on paper...I could really be under-rating him alot)
    22. Stephen Doyle (I think he is talented but I am yet to be convinced)
    23. Lewis Roberts-Thomson
    24. Luke Ablett (cant rank him more highly yet...but I have a feeling..and its a good one)
    25 Matthew Nicks (the hardest to rank IMO...if he recaptured his form he could leap up quite a few places)
    26. Jarrad Sundqvist
    27. Mark Powell
    28. Amon Buchanan
    29. James Meiklejohn
    30. Rowan Warfe (only gets a game if we get injury depleted)


    I cant believe what a hard task this was...but I am actually glad it is ...because it shows what depth we have...and also some exciting young players who could be anything...as well as some under-rated players who can go out and get under the oppositions radar

  8. #8
    So, it seems that the most disposable players in the squad are -
    Powell, Sundqvist, Nicks, Meiklejohn and Warfe.

    Nicks and Warfe are probably too long in the tooth to attract any trade interest . . . . and, from memory, the other three haven't even played 20 games between them. We don't seem to be giving Roosy much to work with!

    Mind you, I noticed that LRT and O'Keefe are rating pretty low down the list. And maybe Fosdike too?

    Perhaps they are the best trade candidates?

  9. #9
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    Harsh calls on many of those names, I think it is important to recognise the difference between potential and ability to produce.
    Staying ahead of the game...

  10. #10
    Maybe the question would be, a trading window has opened, and a quality midfielder is avaliable. Who would we give up. (ie quality for quality).

    If the other team wanted a
    1) Backman - probably trade saddington or Kennelly (as he may go home).
    2) Forward - difficult. Davis is the obvious candidate, but he's Sydney through and through now.
    3) Ruckman - Sorry, cant afford to offload anyone but Meklejohn who wouldnt be worth much.

  11. #11
    Originally posted by Ajn
    Harsh calls on many of those names, I think it is important to recognise the difference between potential and ability to produce.
    You've got me there

    Care to explain in terms I can understand?

  12. #12
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    The difficulty in assessing trade value of a player is knowing what player/s you are going to receive in return, and thus, although really enjoying reading the various ratings, I find it far too difficult to attempt.
    The one interesting player for me is Powell. Rated very low by most. He was emergency about 3 hundred times last year, played a couple of games, and got dizzy dashing back and forth between Canberra and wherever the seniors were playing. I look forward to seeing how he has progressed in the practice matches ( I say that because whispers are that few senior players will be tried in the WC because we have started training relatively late and the concern about the work load on some of them. Bonus is we might get to see a whole lot of young players in the Carlton WC game.)

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