Top 2 prospects

[barry]

I think the only chance we have of making top 2 is to beat Hawthorn and Geelong, and beat them by a greater point differential than Freo do against Port (at Home), and St Kilda.

This works out to me, to be about 2/3rd of didly squat chance.

Even to finish 3rd, we'd need to probably beat Hawthorn and Geelong. So 4th is our most likely spot. And a first week final against Dawks.

So how should we approach the final two games ?

Personally, I dont have a problem facing Hawks in first week. It will allow them to get the grand final defeat out of their system. They will probably win, but the good thing is we wont meet them again until the granny, so it will be back to even stevens.

So lets focus on 4th, and a final against Hawks.

The key thing to manage then is player load, and getting returning players match fit.
- Geelong is a good chance to rest any players who are suffering under a bit of workload. Also a great chance to get Shaw, McGlynn and Rohan (full game) some more match fitness. I'd also get BJ a full game. Possible rests for Tippet, maybe Malceski ?

- Hawks game we'd want to be bringing together our finals team for a final hit out. This will see the best 22 selected, but the possibility of Goodes included to get match fit. Hopefully Rohan has pulled up ok, and another full game will determine whether he's up to finals footy.

Then, it is on.

I tell you, 2013 feels so much like 2006 its not funny. White (replacing Reid) is just like Donkey Doyle replacing ball.

[Xie Shan]

It might not be Hawthorn we play in the first week though! Say we lose to Geelong next week but beat Hawthorn in Round 23, we could get Geelong in a qualifying final at the MCG, as Geelong could make up the necessary % to claim the minor premiership from the Hawks in the final round against Brisbane! Our percentage won't come into it as Freo will win their remaining two games, so we're pretty much certain to end up 4th...

As for the 2006 comparisons, it's an option I don't even want to think about at the moment

I think we're better placed than we were then (from memory we snuck into 4th in the last round with only 14 wins which is a fairly low number, so in a way we were quite lucky to make the grand final). While I don't think we're quite as good as we were last year, there isn't that much separating the teams in the top 4, only 1 1/2 games between 1st and 4th. We haven't beaten Geelong, Hawthorn or Freo this year so we would need to win at least one of the next two, just to go into the finals with a bit of confidence. Not too keen on resting players unless they REALLY need it or first years like Mitchell. Stability is what you need at this time of the year.

[Go Swannies]

I may be wrong but if we beat the Cats but lose to the Hawks we'll be gifting second spot to Freo and we'd still end up 4th. Win both and we'll probably be heading to Perth in week 1 as 3rd to play 2nd.

Of course, it's always possible that Port or the Saints could beat Freo . . .

[mcs]

The only way we will make top 2 is if we win both and Freo lose to Port this weekend. I find it exceptionally unlikely that Freo will not easily make up the percentage in the final round playing St Kilda to overtake us. They will thump St Kilda - we should have beaten them by 100 yesterday, but eased up at the end. As Freo have shown against GWS and Melbourne, they don't ease up, but thump crappy teams. Unless Port knock them off this week, it won't matter what we do, we will not finish top 2 (assuming of course the Hawks win this weekend - if they lose its a different story, but I just can't see it to be honest).

[Ludwig]

All possibility are still open although 4th seems the most likely. PA have everything to play for, as they could fall out of the top 8 if they lose, since they play Carlton in round 23. So the Pa Freo game could be closer than expected. Percentage is definitely in play. Hawthorn is no certainty to beat North either, so even 1st is possible.

Expect the unexpected. It's been happening a lot.

[Go Swannies]

My ideal in the finals order would be for the Cats and Hawks to meet in an early final - and for us to play Freo. I think we might have an edge over Freo and the Cats certainly have the wood over the Hawks. That could have both those teams on the back foot. Of course, that still leaves the Cats to beat - but we'll see how that's looking after this weekend.

[swansrob]

I look forward to finishing fourth and Hawthorn first so we get to play them two weeks in a row.

[Bloodthirsty]

Rohan has to get a full game. He needs to be a like-for-like replacement for Jetta in the finals. In fact, he's probably a Jetta + Morton in one. Goodes is the only one who needs to come back from injury, then I don't think we can lament any personnel issues.

[billyboob]

I look forward to finishing fourth and Hawthorn first so we get to play them two weeks in a row.

Losing both matches but still making the GF and winning it all again. Would be amazeballs.

[Auntie.Gerald]

it would be nice to see Rohan burn off Cyril

ala Jetta 2012

[Swanno]

Personally, I dont have a problem facing Hawks in first week. It will allow them to get the grand final defeat out of their system. They will probably win, but the good thing is we wont meet them again until the granny, so it will be back to even stevens.

The only problem I see with that is, if we do not beat Hawthorne in the last round, nor (if we have to face them first week) and we manage to get to the final, they might have a bit of confidence knowing they have beaten us the last three times.

IMO it is imperative we win one of Geelong and Hawthorn just to show that while we are not at our strongest, we can still roll with the best of the best

[barry]

The only problem I see with that is, if we do not beat Hawthorne in the last round, nor (if we have to face them first week) and we manage to get to the final, they might have a bit of confidence knowing they have beaten us the last three times.

Hawthorn overconfidence is partly why we won the flag last year.

Let them believe the victorian media all they like I say.