I think the only chance we have of making top 2 is to beat Hawthorn and Geelong, and beat them by a greater point differential than Freo do against Port (at Home), and St Kilda.
This works out to me, to be about 2/3rd of didly squat chance.
Even to finish 3rd, we'd need to probably beat Hawthorn and Geelong. So 4th is our most likely spot. And a first week final against Dawks.
So how should we approach the final two games ?
Personally, I dont have a problem facing Hawks in first week. It will allow them to get the grand final defeat out of their system. They will probably win, but the good thing is we wont meet them again until the granny, so it will be back to even stevens.
So lets focus on 4th, and a final against Hawks.
The key thing to manage then is player load, and getting returning players match fit.
- Geelong is a good chance to rest any players who are suffering under a bit of workload. Also a great chance to get Shaw, McGlynn and Rohan (full game) some more match fitness. I'd also get BJ a full game. Possible rests for Tippet, maybe Malceski ?
- Hawks game we'd want to be bringing together our finals team for a final hit out. This will see the best 22 selected, but the possibility of Goodes included to get match fit. Hopefully Rohan has pulled up ok, and another full game will determine whether he's up to finals footy.
Then, it is on.
I tell you, 2013 feels so much like 2006 its not funny. White (replacing Reid) is just like Donkey Doyle replacing ball.
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