Here's what I think/hope/pray based on my limited knowledge of footy, inferences from what Longmire says and observance of the Swans, particularly leading into last year's finals:
The facts:
* To win, the Swans rely on two way running, intense tackling and passion - generally working harder than the opposition for four quarters;
* Our primary opponents, Geelong and Hawthorn, rely on pin-point kicking, ball skills and general classiness to win;
* All three teams undertake a period of intense training leading into the finals which resulted in a dip in their form over a few weeks;
* The Swans' dip seemed to last a fair bit longer than the others; and
* If what I've heard on here is correct, we've been doing more closed training sessions than usual of late.
What I've inferred:
* Longmire doesn't lose much sleep worrying about whether we're minor premiers or whether we get a home final;
* Longmire is completely focused on wining finals and doesn't play any of his aces until he has to;
* Further, he actually hides his aces - witness Jetta's "dip in form" (really a move further down back) in the last 6 or so weeks leading to the finals last year, only to burst back to his brilliant best in the finals; and
* Our leadership group would insist on hitting the training track as hard as humanly possible - it's in the team's DNA to work harder for longer.
What I've concluded:
* The obvious one - Longmire didn't want to give the Hawthorn back 6 a go at handling our four talls before the finals or even the idea that they might be able to handle Tippet. They struggled with Jesse and will now be understandably focused on stopping Tippet next week, opening up opportunities elsewhere;
* We hit the training track harder and longer than the others because we consider it critical to our chances of winning - hence the prolonged dip in performance relative to the others, who would consider the kick in fitness as a nice-to-have rather than critical to winning the premiership;
* Once we were locked in for the top four, we hit it even harder. By my reckoning, we were still on an increased training program until last week;
* The 'bomb it to Tippet' strategy is a deliberate ploy so that opposition teams put two or even three defenders on him, giving the other talls and the mids room to move;
* We'll see a vastly different attack strategy next week where Tippet is more decoy than target. This is what's been going on at the closed training sessions;
* Jetta will be a part of it, probably as sub;
* Our tackling and attack on the ball will be INTENSE next week; and
* Longmire is the best coach in the competition and much smarter and more focused than me.
I hope I'm right, but even if the details aren't, I'm confident that Longmire's got more to play than he's letting on. I'm looking forward to next week.
On a different tack, with Jetta probably returning, and maybe Goodes and LRT, would we almost be better off losing next week and getting some extra game time against either Port or Richmond?
Thoughts?
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