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Thread: Preliminary Final Preview: Sydney v Fremantle

  1. #1
    One Man Out ShockOfHair's Avatar
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    Preliminary Final Preview: Sydney v Fremantle

    Form and history says Freo - but here's how Sydney can win

    The good omen first. Four of the last five premiers have won through from the second preliminary final.

    Under the current system, only four qualifying final winners have lost the preliminary. But one of those was St Kilda against the eventual premier in 2005.

    And since Adelaide won the flag from 4th and 5th positions respectively a decade and a half ago, only one team has won through to the grand final from 4th. Us again. We knocked out the Purple Haze in the prelim and went on to play off against the team we?d vanquished the previous year. OK, we know how that ended.

    But the Swans can take plenty out of last week's win, even if it were against the lowest-ranked finalist ever.

    We put Carlton to the sword with our outside run in the same way that Hawthorn did to us the previous week. That spread is an essential part of our slingshot game; the yin to our in-and-under yang. Why we hadn?t done so since July is a mystery, but it was the kind of footy we showed when we overran the Pies, Essendon and Adelaide, not to mention our last game at Subi.

    Just as important were the dominance of players like McVeigh, Hannebery and Mumford, who had gone missing against Hawthorn, and the critical cameos from Parker and Jetta, and the contributions from guys like Everitt, Biggs and Cunningham.

    With that win in difficult circumstances Sydney take plenty of confidence to Perth. Freo might be favourite, but we are still a good chance to knock them over.

    There?s little between the two sides. The winning margins in the last five games have been: draw, 13, 9, 37 and 13 points. That?s two and a half wins apiece.

    We?ve lost Tippett again, yet the stats tell us we actually score more without him. That may be a reflection on our tough late season draw, but in his absence the forward line seems to open up for our runners to mark and crumb.

    There are good reasons why Freo are hot favourites, however.

    Even in the SCG draw they outplayed us, despite the absence of Pavlich and Sandilands. The Dockers squandered chances while we were uncommonly accurate. They clawed back a 27-point deficit in the last 15 minutes and only Sam Reid?s hanger saved a draw.

    While the Swans have coughed and sputtered their way to September, Freo has had a smooth run with injuries and a back half draw only occasionally impeded by top sides.

    To top it off they are well rested. Lyon gave ten players the week off in round 23. The following week they carried off the jaw-dropping feat of dismissing Geelong in a final at Simonds Stadium.

    So they can?t not be favourites on their home patch, where they?ve won 16 of their last 17 matches, and with fresh legs against a Swans team with a poor record in running out games; we?ve won just 10 out of 24 last quarters this year.

    And yet. Quarter by quarter Sydney are only a shade behind last year, despite the injury toll. In 2012 we won 64, drew won and lost 35 quarters. This year (having played one less game) we?ve won 59, drawn 4 and lost 33. This speaks to the strength of the club's gameplan and the ability to drill young players to follow it.

    The big danger for the Dockers is that they may be fresh to the point of being underdone. A good number have played just one game in the past month. Sydney has been slugging it out with the other finalists for the past five weeks. We might not be physically fresh but mentally we are razor-sharp.

    So the path to a Sydney victory will be by jumping the sluggish Dockers in the first quarter and building up a halftime lead. If, however, the Dockers take control early, it?ll be us who get the heave-ho.

    Prediction: Dockers by 13.


    LAST FIVE CONTESTS
    2013. Round 8, SCG
    Syd 3.0 7.2 8.3 11.4 (70)
    Fre 3.6 3.8 5.12 9.16 (70)

    2012. Round 2, SCG
    Syd 4.4 9.7 11.9 14.10 (94)
    Fre 2.2 3.3 9.4 12.9 (81)

    2011. Round 17, SCG
    Fre 3.2 7.4 14.7 15.8 (98)
    Syd 3.2 6.3 8.5 13.9 (87)

    2010
    Round 9, SCG

    Fre 3.6 9.12 11.14 14.16 (100)
    Syd 3.2 5.4 8.5 9.9 (63)

    Round 20, Subiaco
    Syd 2.5 5.8 9.9 14.12 (94)
    Fre 3.2 5.6 10.6 13.9 (81)


    HIGHLIGHTS, MILESTONES
    Mumford?s 100th
    Jude's last game in Perth
    Matt de Boer?s 100th

    MATCHUPS
    Ted v Pavlich: Ted has softened up Pav in the fawning modern manner by comparing him to Goodes. That Pav hasn't spoken of Richards in the same breath as SOS is a slight that is sure to fire up Ted.

    Mummo v Sandi: For the first time since Mumford came to Sydney nearly four years. Throw in Pyke and Zach Clarke and it?s a contest. If you?re not busy, take a minute to contemplate the notion of a body 15 kg larger than Mumford?s.

    Hannebery:v Crowley: Hanna is Sydney's bellwether and will surely attract attention, although he blew Crowley up in Round 8. In a nice piece of psyops, McVeigh has tipped Crowley to go to him (McVeigh).

    Ballantyne v Malceski/Rampe/Biggs: In an ideal world, without an MRP and with matchups based solely on entertainment value, I'd put Ballantyne on Mumford just to see how long before he is flung into the pickets. Sadly that won't happen. But will he get the job on our most dangerous halfback? Or get picked up by Rampe or Biggs?

    Smith v Walters: Dockers? biggest goalkicker this year with 41. A job for no. 40.

    Battle of the Swans premiership mentors: Longmire (2005 & 2012) vs Lyon, Kirk & Mark Stone (2005).


    OTHER KEY DOCKERS
    Michael Johnson ? AA half-back. A job for ROK at half-forward?
    Stephen Hill - has never put in a big game against us, but can carve sides up with his speed
    Danyle Pearce ? plenty of pace, gets plenty of ball

    ODDS
    TAB: Dockers $1.30. Swans $3.55
    The man who laughs has not yet heard the terrible news

  2. #2
    Veteran Site Admin
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    Wonderful preview SOH. That's gotten me right in the mood.

    I think the key to us having a decent chance is the state of Hanners' body. Of our top line mids (JPK, Macca, Jack, Hanners), his is the output that varies the most. He's the youngest by some distance, so it's not that surprising that he's still striving for consistency. But I also think he has been sore for much of the last two months, even before the knee scare against the Cats. He just hasn't been moving as fluently as earlier in the year. Last week he was nearly back to his hard running best, and we need him to back that up again if we're to win this.

  3. #3
    Sir Ashmole Gruntbucket hot potato's Avatar
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    Excellent analysis ShockofHair and your head not your heart prediction of Freo by 13 .
    You are probably correct, due to the Swans inability to play with the intensity required for the full 120 whatever minutes.
    Sydney will need to be very accurate for most of the night to give it a shake.

  4. #4
    Senior Player
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    Fantastic preview ShockOfHair, getting excited for this game now!

  5. #5
    Go Swannies! Site Admin Meg's Avatar
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    I cackled with laughter at the Mumford v Ballantyne scenario.

  6. #6
    Fantastic write up. Looking forward to the game!

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    Ego alta, ergo ictus Ruck'n'Roll's Avatar
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    While we generally take a conservative approach to selecting the sub, which means Rohan wearing the green. I wonder whether Horse teal would consider Rohan at full forward, the pro side of the arguement is he probably doesn't have the tank to play a full game up the field and at the same time he was looking very good in that position when he had his leg smashed. The con side is that while his speed hasn't suffered he hasn't been holding his marks all that well.
    Thoughts?

  8. #8
    scott names the planets stellation's Avatar
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    Great writeup, ShockOfHair. I'm really looking forward to the game, I hope everyone that gets over for it has a cracking time!
    I knew him as a gentle young man, I cannot say for sure the reasons for his decline
    We watched him fade before our very eyes, and years before his time

  9. #9
    Wonderful preview.

    Love the Mummy v Ballantyne scenario, if only it were possible
    Chillin' with the strange Quarks

  10. #10
    Travelling Swannie!! mcs's Avatar
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    Great preview.

    I do completely concur that we have to start well. We need to do what we did against port in that 2003 qualifying final. Get on the jugular early and get away from them. Freo imo are not a team that likes to chase a game. If we let them control it and and its tight, I think they'll come over the top of us.

    Feeling more optimistic than earlier in the week - but frankly, I'm pretty relaxed. We win and we get another fun trip to the G next week (where we will have zero pressure on us, and no expectation to win), lose and it'll be disappointing, but we can reflect on a great season nonetheless!

    CARN YOU MIGHTY SWANNIES!!!!
    "You get the feeling that like Monty Python's Black Knight, the Swans would regard amputation as merely a flesh wound."

  11. #11
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    Great stuff SOH, very enjoyable although I suspect Smith will go the BLW.

    On a whim I've headed back to my home turf of Perth and am taking my Swans loving nephew to the game tmrw night. Very excited indeed! I assume there are other RWOers out here?

  12. #12
    On the Rookie List BillyRayCypress's Avatar
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    Well done and has certainly set the mood.

    Fingers crossed for a big upset.
    Nothing like a good light bulb moment.

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