Before you dismiss my comment as pure 'hysteria', consider my rough stats I've just put together for seasons since 2000.
Since 2000, teams that were 1-4 or worse after Rd 5, after the final rd of the season, the best placed team was:
2000: Port Adelaide (14th)
2001: North Melbourne (13th).
2002: Carlton (last) . St Kilda were 1-1-3, and ended up 2nd last.
2003: Geelong (12th)
2004: Geelong (4th). Note there were 6 teams that year on 1-4.
2005: Hawthorn (14th)
2006: Brisbane (13th).
2007: Carlton (15th) * Note there was no team on 1-4 after 5 rounds, Carlton and Richmond were winless. Geelong were 2-3, but then lost only once more to end up finishing top with 18-4
2008: Port Adelaide (13th)
2009: Richmond (14th)
2010: Hawthorn (7th)
2011: Richmond (12th)
2012: Richmond (10th)
2013: North Melbourne (10th)
I know its only crude analysis, and generally the teams down the bottom, even during the early part of the season will mainly be the teams that end up there - but I think you can see why some of us are concerned that the season is already slipping away. Especially when you consider we still have to play Hawthorn twice, Port twice, Essendon twice, plus all the other leading contenders.
At this stage, it is looking like a long year unless they really pull their finger out, starting next week against Freo. But I'm not sure that if you don't have fitness or skills at a suitable level by rd 5, that you are easily going to fix it in time to save your season.
Bookmarks