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Thread: The run home

  1. #1
    One Man Out ShockOfHair's Avatar
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    The run home

    Here's the run home for the top four teams. The other teams aren't a realistic chance, although the Cats and North could do some damage.

    It most likely gets down to the two games each play against the other top three. It's a relatively friendly draw for the Swans. That means a) a good chance of a home final and b) a lot more Swans conspiracy palava.

    We play Hawks in Round 18 at the G and Port in Round 20 in Adelaide. Those are the only top eight sides in our draw, though technically, Essendon, Carlton AND the Tigers all finished in the eight last year.

    Six of the Hawks' last nine games are against top sides, plus the Crows. See b) above.

    (Brackets = number of games against top 8 sides)

    Port 44 148.5 (4)
    Hawks 40 145.7 (6)
    Swans 40 135.4 (2)
    Freo 36 134.2 (3)

    Cats 36 106.4
    Cwd 32 113.6
    North 32 111.1
    Suns 32 105.8


    PORT: 4 Crows (AO), Ess (AO), Tigers (ES), Mel (AO), Col (MCG), Swans (AO), Suns (MS), Car (AO), Dockers (PS)

    HAWKS: 6 Suns (AS), North (ES), Crows (AO), Swans (MCG), Bulldogs (AU), Mel (MCG), Freo (PS), Cats (MCG), Cwd (MCG)

    SWANS:2 GWS (SCG), Eagles (PS), Carl (SCG), Haw (MCG), Ess (SCG), Port (AO), Saints (SCG), Bulldogs (ES), Tigers (ANZ)

    FREO: 3Eagles (PS), Mel (TIO), Giants (PS), Saints (ES), Car (ES), Cats (SS), Haw (PS), Lions (G), Port (PS)
    The man who laughs has not yet heard the terrible news

  2. #2
    Looks like the Swans' fate is in their own hands. Beat Port and Hawks (and don't drop a nothing game) and a top 2 finish is almost assured. Lose one or both and we likely won't make it.

    Having said that, there are always unexpected results which throw these sort if predictions into disarray.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by DK_ View Post
    Looks like the Swans' fate is in their own hands. Beat Port and Hawks (and don't drop a nothing game) and a top 2 finish is almost assured. Lose one or both and we likely won't make it.

    Having said that, there are always unexpected results which throw these sort if predictions into disarray.
    Take 3 of our first 4 games? No game is a certainty

  4. #4
    Assuming we drop 2 games that will put us on 68 points at the end of the regular season which would have put us third last year. It's a plus that we're playing the two teams above us as we'll be likely have to face one of them in the first week of the finals.

  5. #5
    Win 'em all and we're minor premiers.
    Today's a draft of your epitaph

  6. #6
    I think we have an almost perfect run home. Most of our games are against teams out of the eight and the two teams we play within the eight are our major threats; Port and Hawks which will give us a great chance to test ourselves against them. Unlike previous years, it would be nice to be able to rest a couple of our tired players prior to the finals.

  7. #7
    Through necessity rather than design we are getting to rest Tippett, Hannebery, Shaw and McGlynn. Hopefully that helps come September. It will for Hanners at the very least I'd say.
    Today's a draft of your epitaph

  8. #8
    Travelling Swannie!! mcs's Avatar
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    I think, assuming (a big assumption I know) that other results go as expected, we will finish top 2 if we beat either the Hawks or Port. Win both and we might finish minor premiers, lose both and we are likely to finish 3rd or 4th.


    To be honest, this week's game probably worries me more than most out of the 'should wins'. Anything near our best, and we should win comfortably. But mummy will dominate the ruck, and our recent couple of performances have been not so convincing. Without Hanners there, I expect a tightish tussle, but hopefully we can stretch them at the back with Tippett back.

    The Eagles won't be easy over there, but our record in recent years at Subiaco is outstanding (and with Glass gone, assuming Tippett is fit, I think they'll struggle to contain our talls);

    Carlton at home, if we play anywhere near our best, should be relatively straightforward (depending on which version of Carlton turn up);

    Essendon at home - we beat them pretty comfortably earlier in the year. Certainly no gimme, but you'd expect a good performance would see a comfortable win;

    Saints and bulldogs - no excuses on either of these. Saints game frankly should be a 10 goal plus mauling, and the Dogs will probably worry us for a half or so again, before we come over the top in the second half;

    Tigers - by rd 23, hopefully they will be well and truly demoralised at the bottom of the ladder. Certainly a dangerous team that matches up well against us, but at home (well our home away from home), then you would think we should be able to do it comfortably.

    It really is a pretty tidy draw. Get a few results go our way and there may be some opportunity in those last 3 weeks to rest a few boys as well. I do worry that we will be lacking in 'big games' over the last couple of months of the season, but there is no doubt the Hawks and port games will be played in an intensive, finals like manner.

    Its all shaping up for a very good final series - I would argue that if the top 4 teams stay the same, any of them will believe they can beat any of the rest of them on their day, home or away.
    "You get the feeling that like Monty Python's Black Knight, the Swans would regard amputation as merely a flesh wound."

  9. #9
    Veterans List DeadlyAkkuret's Avatar
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    I get worried about assuming we'll just win all the "easy" games, but then my opinion doesn't change how they play.

    This is our best chance to finish top 2 since 1996.

  10. #10
    Sooner or later we know that every team has a match they don't turn up for mentally, especially so if they have had a bunch of tough fought wins. During the first qtr against Richmond I was thinking this was going to be the game we would lose for this reason. But we got over the line despite this.

    I believe the team will be really up mentally for this week's game against GWS because of the way we lost to them in round 1. I expect we will go hard and win well.

    Then I see the West Coast game as a real danger game ... possible let down after going very hard at GWS ... sitting high on the ladder ... travel on top ... still with Hanners and Shaw out. Depends whether West Coast turns up primed for a big one, they have been a bit Jeckyll and Hyde so far.
    CIA Agent to Policeman: "Have you ever had anti-terrorist training?"
    Policeman: "Yes, I was married once."

  11. #11
    I haven't felt worried about a west coast game for a while, we seem to be well on top of them recently. Then again, if the players think that way, we could be in strife ...

  12. #12
    Carpe Noctem CureTheSane's Avatar
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    Remember seeing a ladder predictor (from an article on the AFL site I think) a week ago where it was assessed that we finish 1st, followed by Freo based on the remaining draw.
    The difference between insanity and genius is measured only in success.

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