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Thread: Changes for Prelim final V North

  1. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by mcs View Post
    Trying to expose our height would be an absolutely huge risk for the Kangas if it does indeed remain dry and we use the ball well. If that is the case, we would absolutely rip them apart. It would be a massive gamble to take, but I guess the Roos have nothing to lose per say.
    I don't think it's a massive gamble at all. In fact, I'll almost guarantee it will be their tactic from bounce to final siren. Flood back, turn the one-on-ones into two-on-ones, spoil hard, get the ball on the deck, run rings around Goodes and Tippett, rebound end to end.

    The way to counteract that would be to leave Goodes on the bench and get a small forward up front to apply some defensive/crumbing pressure. Again, I don't think it will happen but that's what I would do.

  2. #26
    Goodes won't be sub for his 350th. I think he'll have a big game actually

  3. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ampersand View Post
    I don't think it's a massive gamble at all. In fact, I'll almost guarantee it will be their tactic from bounce to final siren. Flood back, turn the one-on-ones into two-on-ones, spoil hard, get the ball on the deck, run rings around Goodes and Tippett, rebound end to end.

    The way to counteract that would be to leave Goodes on the bench and get a small forward up front to apply some defensive/crumbing pressure. Again, I don't think it will happen but that's what I would do.
    It is a massive gamble for them - a gamble by nature is that (generally anyway) you either win or you lose.

    If, as you suggest, they are able to use it to rebound well, then it might be a win for them.

    But on the other hand, if it doesn't work, and our big forwards are given good delivery, then its reasonable to assume someone from our forwards will kick a multiple of goals, which would go a long way towards winning the game for us.

    North are very good in this area generally - but it doesn't mean such tactics aren't fraught with danger!
    "You get the feeling that like Monty Python's Black Knight, the Swans would regard amputation as merely a flesh wound."

  4. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by bondy View Post
    Goodes won't be sub for his 350th. I think he'll have a big game actually
    I know he won't but I certainly hope it's not the fact that it's his 350th that's keeping him in the starting 18. There's no room for sentimentality in finals footy. I thought Longmire was pretty slow to react to Fremantle's extra man so I hope he has something up his sleeve if he goes out with the exact same lineup and faces similar tactics.

    Another thing to watch out for will be North attempting to keep the contest a low scoring affair early. Denying us possession and momentum, lots of short kicks and switches from one side of the ground to the other. They'll be happy to win slow and ugly so we need to be tight in defence.

  5. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by mcs View Post
    It is a massive gamble for them - a gamble by nature is that (generally anyway) you either win or you lose.

    If, as you suggest, they are able to use it to rebound well, then it might be a win for them.

    But on the other hand, if it doesn't work, and our big forwards are given good delivery, then its reasonable to assume someone from our forwards will kick a multiple of goals, which would go a long way towards winning the game for us.

    North are very good in this area generally - but it doesn't mean such tactics aren't fraught with danger!
    Doesn't matter how good the delivery is if you end up sandwiched between two opposition players.

    One thing I always admired about the Hawks was their ability to find an alternative target 40-50m from goal when the opposition flooded back to the goal square. Hope we lower the eyes and do the same.

  6. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampersand View Post
    I don't think it's a massive gamble at all. In fact, I'll almost guarantee it will be their tactic from bounce to final siren. Flood back, turn the one-on-ones into two-on-ones, spoil hard, get the ball on the deck, run rings around Goodes and Tippett, rebound end to end.
    Yes, their selected team does suggest this will be their strategy. But any way I look at it they are in trouble if we can get our usual amount of inside 50s. They don't have the height to stop Goodes, Tippett and Sam taking some overhead marks each. So they will have to spoil hard as you say, which is likely to end up in some free kicks to us inside 50. And Buddy is way better now than when he was beaten by Thompson in round 4. Ditto for Benny, Harry and Jetts. That's a lot of strike power they need to keep shutting down via flood backs and two-on-ones.

  7. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ampersand View Post
    I know he won't but I certainly hope it's not the fact that it's his 350th that's keeping him in the starting 18. There's no room for sentimentality in finals footy. I thought Longmire was pretty slow to react to Fremantle's extra man so I hope he has something up his sleeve if he goes out with the exact same lineup and faces similar tactics.

    Another thing to watch out for will be North attempting to keep the contest a low scoring affair early. Denying us possession and momentum, lots of short kicks and switches from one side of the ground to the other. They'll be happy to win slow and ugly so we need to be tight in defence.
    Did you hear Barry Hall say he thinks Goodes is up for a big game after being down for a few week now?. Goodes has hardly had a defensive side to his game for the past five years now - strange how he seems to go alright when he has the ball in hand though. But you'd only drop Goodes if you were replacing him with someone who is more damaging - and there isn't anyone. The plan to play him as the 3rd or 4th forward in the free game would have worked if he'd held the marks that he'd normally have taken. By the time the Roos double team Buddy and Tippo and maybe Reid they are getting thin on defenders for Goodes.

    If we play as we should we should win by 50+. Full team, fresh legs and finals experience should finish the Roos' season. But it's a final so anything could happen.

    Agree completely on the extra man back - Horse was very slow to respond. I hope we see Buddy move further up the ground earlier this time, too. But the Roos aren't the boa constrictor that Freo is - and they have backs out - so decent midfield supply should give us a comfortable win. I hope Goodes kicks five.

  8. #32
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    If you could only do that! If we kicked the ball straight the opposition would never touch it! If we kicked straight for goal we would win most matches easily.Unfortunately or should I say luckily we play with a ball that is not round,has unpredictable bounce and can boomerang under windy conditions,It evens up the contest and makes it possible for less talented teams to have a more even competition

  9. #33
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    Shaw potentially might start as the sub. Would be my choice.

  10. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matt79 View Post
    I'm confident for no rain Liz, however, a cool night is forecast so dew could be an issue?
    Nup, dew will be in the box, not on the ground.

  11. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ampersand View Post
    Doesn't matter how good the delivery is if you end up sandwiched between two opposition players.

    One thing I always admired about the Hawks was their ability to find an alternative target 40-50m from goal when the opposition flooded back to the goal square. Hope we lower the eyes and do the same.
    They can't have two defenders on everyone however... If we get enough good ball going forward, and we don't as you say the 'kick it and hope routine', eventually we will find enough avenues to goal. If we, as Matimbo said, get our usual amount of inside 50's, then we will more than likely win, as its more than likely at least one of our forwards will get away from them.

    And we have in recent matches seen more goals coming from our midfielders as well, which will help negate such an approach.
    "You get the feeling that like Monty Python's Black Knight, the Swans would regard amputation as merely a flesh wound."

  12. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hartijon View Post
    If you could only do that! If we kicked the ball straight the opposition would never touch it! If we kicked straight for goal we would win most matches easily.Unfortunately or should I say luckily we play with a ball that is not round,has unpredictable bounce and can boomerang under windy conditions,It evens up the contest and makes it possible for less talented teams to have a more even competition
    Of course Hartijon - it would be a boring game if it didn't have said unpredictability. But you would expect, on balance, that if we get enough forward 50 entries, barring errant kicking (another wonderful variable!), we will get the job done. Unless we solely do the 'kick it and hope' bomb routine, but surely we are better than that. We wouldn't have lost only twice since April if that was our only tactic going forward.

    For the record, I think Tippett will kick at least 4 tonight. All the attention will be on looking after Buddy, and with good conditions, it could really give Tippett some good chances to bring a few marks down and kick a few goals. He has form for turning up in Prelims as well.
    "You get the feeling that like Monty Python's Black Knight, the Swans would regard amputation as merely a flesh wound."

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