Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 12 of 13

Thread: "Swans Statistical Stories": December

  1. #1
    Senior Player
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    Sydney
    Posts
    1,732

    "Swans Statistical Stories": December

    There is no denying it, we are now well into the off-season. After the Wednesday draft there will be little real news to sustain us until the 2015 season begins.

    So I thought I'd try something. As I am fond of statistics and charts, I call it "Swans Statistical Stories." The aim is to use the data about Swans games to answer questions that have occurred to me over the years. Hopefully it might be interesting and fun for other people too - suggestions for topics are welcome!

    I'll try to post one each month from now to February, this month is:

    "Fourth quarter turnarounds"

    Time to out myself as a relatively recent fan. I started watching AFL on TV in 2000, but I did not attend a game until 2003. Turned out to be a great choice for my first game: Anzac day game versus Melbourne at the SCG, April 25 2003. Many of you probably remember that the Swans were 3 goals down at three-quarter time, but stormed home with a stunning 10-goal final quarter. Well, I was hooked and have tried to get to most home games since that day.

    Recently I realised that I have not seen a Q4 reversal of that size since that game. So I wondered: how unusual is it? How often have the Swans/SMFC been behind at the end of Q3, but gone on to win? Or indeed, been in front but then gone on to lose? And what were the biggest swings?

    Those of you who want the gory details of how to compute these numbers (hint: are you excited by the words "R programming language" ?) should go here.

    It turns out that in the 2333 games to date, the "win from behind at end of Q3" has happened 171 times. Here are the 10 games with the biggest Q4 winning score reversals.

    Rnd T Opponent Scoring.F F Scoring.A A R Venue Crowd Date
    R5 H Adelaide 1.4 5.13 9.15 20.24 144 5.7 7.10 12.14 12.15 87 W S.C.G. 15491 30-Apr-1995 2:15 PM
    R19 A Kangaroos 5.4 6.5 12.7 22.12 144 4.3 10.3 14.6 15.7 97 W S.C.G. 14776 10-Aug-2002 7:10 PM
    R8 H Fourth quarter turnarounds Geelong 4.1 5.10 6.12 14.17 101 5.0 7.0 12.5 13.5 83 W Lake Oval 12-Jun-1915 3:00 PM
    R5 A Richmond 4.5 7.9 13.15 21.20 146 5.5 11.8 18.11 19.12 126 W M.C.G. 22154 25-Apr-1987 2:10 PM
    R20 H Brisbane Bears 1.6 3.11 4.15 11.20 86 3.4 4.7 7.11 7.13 55 W S.C.G. 5272 17-Aug-1990 7:40 PM
    R2 H Footscray 2.4 6.10 11.12 18.17 125 5.4 7.8 14.13 14.15 99 W Lake Oval 29000 06-May-1933 2:45 PM
    R12 A Richmond 2.3 4.5 8.8 16.12 108 2.5 5.11 9.14 10.15 75 W Punt Rd 27000 17-Jul-1926 2:45 PM
    R5 H Melbourne 2.3 6.4 7.4 17.7 109 3.2 5.4 10.6 13.7 85 W S.C.G. 24286 25-Apr-2003 6:45 PM
    R13 H Fitzroy 4.0 10.1 12.2 19.6 120 3.9 3.9 11.20 11.22 88 W Lake Oval 12000 19-Jul-1958 2:15 PM
    SF F Richmond 2.1 3.5 6.9 14.11 95 3.4 9.6 10.11 11.11 77 W M.C.G. 49303 16-Sep-1933 2:30 PM

    So my first game was quite special; it's the 8th largest Q4 score reversal to win of all time.

    And now for the downside. At least we have lost fewer times after leading at the end of Q3 than vice-versa: 154 times. Here's the top 10 Q4 losing score reversals.

    Rnd T Opponent Scoring.F F Scoring.A A R Venue Crowd Date
    R12 A Melbourne 6.3 10.4 14.11 14.12 96 4.2 8.7 12.11 22.16 148 L M.C.G. 26510 25-Jul-1936 2:45 PM
    R4 A Melbourne 3.2 8.4 14.9 15.11 101 3.3 8.6 12.10 23.15 153 L M.C.G. 14569 14-May-1938 2:45 PM
    R6 A North Melbourne 9.3 19.6 21.8 21.8 134 5.7 13.12 19.18 27.26 188 L M.C.G. 15664 25-Apr-1991 2:10 PM
    R13 H St Kilda 4.4 6.6 9.9 9.9 63 2.4 2.9 3.9 11.14 80 L Lake Oval 14380 21-Jul-1962 2:20 PM
    R5 H Essendon 6.4 8.11 17.12 19.16 130 4.6 10.9 13.15 24.17 161 L S.C.G. 13140 19-Apr-1991 7:40 PM
    R4 A Fitzroy 6.3 9.8 16.12 18.16 124 2.5 6.9 11.10 21.17 143 L Junction Oval 13664 22-Apr-1978 2:10 PM
    R19 A Footscray 5.4 6.6 8.8 8.9 57 3.1 6.6 7.12 15.13 103 L Western Oval 12742 25-Jul-1992 2:10 PM
    R5 H Essendon 3.6 5.10 6.12 7.16 58 2.2 4.11 5.13 14.16 100 L Lake Oval 27500 18-May-1957 2:15 PM
    R19 H Kangaroos 5.2 9.3 16.4 18.4 112 2.4 3.10 8.12 17.16 118 L S.C.G. 24028 07-Aug-2004 7:10 PM
    R7 A Essendon 3.1 7.4 11.7 11.10 76 1.2 3.5 9.7 16.12 108 L Windy Hill 12000 05-Jun-1937 2:30 PM

    Sadly I was also at game number 9 in that list. I'm sure many of you recall the tragic event which had a big influence on the result.

    So there you have it: fourth quarter turnarounds. Hope it brings back a few match memories; maybe people would like to share if they remember any of those top 10 games.


  2. #2
    Senior Player
    Join Date
    Jan 2003
    Location
    Sydney
    Posts
    2,929
    Blog Entries
    1
    Great work Neil!

  3. #3
    Neil did i read that right

    that if you are leading at the end of the 3rd qtr that you will win more then 9 out o 10 games ?

    that is mind blowing !!!!
    "be tough, only when it gets tough"


  4. #4
    Senior Player DamY's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2011
    Location
    Surry Hills
    Posts
    1,479
    I think that's why some bookies give your money back if your team is ahead at 3/4 time and loses the game, pretty impossible

  5. #5
    bugger i used to worry leading into the 3rd qtr when we were ahead by a goal !!!


    i wonder what the stats are if you are ahead by 3 goals vs 2 goals vs 1 goal at the end of the 3rd qtr !!!
    "be tough, only when it gets tough"


  6. #6
    On the veteran's list
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Swans Heartland
    Posts
    2,227
    Quote Originally Posted by Auntie.Gerald View Post
    Neil did i read that right

    that if you are leading at the end of the 3rd qtr that you will win more then 9 out o 10 games ?

    that is mind blowing !!!!
    I'm not sure this is accurate, AG. Neil tells us how many games we have played and how many times we have come from behind or have been run over from behind. He hasn't told us in how many of our total games we were BEHIND or how many times we were AHEAD at the last change. If we had these numbers we could calculate the proportion of times we win from behind or lose from being ahead.

    I suspect that given our success (or lack of it) over the many decades of our existence, the reason we have come from behind to win more often than we have been run over from behind is that we have been behind much more often than we have been in front at three quarter time.
    Those who have the greatest power to hurt us are those we love.

  7. #7
    Senior Player
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    Sydney
    Posts
    1,732
    Quote Originally Posted by Auntie.Gerald View Post
    that if you are leading at the end of the 3rd qtr that you will win more then 9 out o 10 games ?
    I think someone has looked at that and a Q3 lead very likely means a win, but that information isn't in these numbers, as Big Cat said. Might be a good suggestion for my January story!

  8. #8
    Senior Player
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    Sydney
    Posts
    1,732
    Quote Originally Posted by neilfws View Post
    I think someone has looked at that and a Q3 lead very likely means a win, but that information isn't in these numbers, as Big Cat said
    Just to be completely clear: this post is about games where the lead reversed from Q3-Q4: from losing to winning (171) or winning to losing (154). In the other games (2333 - 171 - 154 = 2008) they either won after leading going into Q4 or lost after being behind going into Q4. So you could say that in 86% of games, the result was decided by end of Q3.

  9. #9
    Senior Player
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    Sydney
    Posts
    1,732
    Quote Originally Posted by neilfws View Post
    In the other games (2333 - 171 - 154 = 2008) they either won after leading going into Q4 or lost after being behind going into Q4

    Of course, I completely forgot that scores could also be level at the end of Q3, Q4 or both. With two quarters (Q3, Q4) and three possible states (winning, losing or equal), we have 3 x 3 possibilities.

    So to complete the story: for the 2333 games to date, here are the number of games with winning (+), losing (-) or level (=) at the end of Q3 and Q4.

    Q3 Q4 number of games
    + + 912
    + - 154
    - + 171
    - - 1045
    = = 1
    = + 13
    + = 15
    = - 14
    - = 8

    Bonus point if you identify the game that was level at the end of both Q3 and Q4.


  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by neilfws View Post

    Of course, I completely forgot that scores could also be level at the end of Q3, Q4 or both. With two quarters (Q3, Q4) and three possible states (winning, losing or equal), we have 3 x 3 possibilities.



    So to complete the story: for the 2333 games to date, here are the number of games with winning (+), losing (-) or level (=) at the end of Q3 and Q4.






















































    Q3 Q4 number of games
    + + 912
    + - 154
    - + 171
    - - 1045
    = = 1
    = + 13
    + = 15
    = - 14
    - = 8


    Bonus point if you identify the game that was level at the end of both Q3 and Q4.

    1947 round 15 against ed's mob

  11. #11
    Senior Player
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    Sydney
    Posts
    1,732
    Quote Originally Posted by yabbadabbado View Post
    1947 round 15 against ed's mob
    Correct! And scoring was the same for both teams in both quarters too, 7.12.54 (Q3) and 9.15.69 (Q4).

  12. #12
    I am constantly amazed how much you people know. It is a great learning Forum!

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Single Sign On provided by vBSSO