It must be time for finals-related charts

[neilfws]

In celebration of finals, I give you the annual reminder that since the introduction of the current "final 8" system in 2000, no-one has won from outside the top 3.

gfladder.png

There is a team that has won from 3rd twice and been runner-up from 4th...we all know who they are.

Seems to be some speculation in the media that this year has the best chance for some time of a surprise, even from outside the top 4. No-one is rating number 4 of course.

As ever, happy to supply charts that answer your finals-related questions!

[RogueSwan]

How have first week losers from the Top 4 gone? Made the PF? Made the GF? Won the whole thing?

[barry]

In celebration of finals, I give you the annual reminder that since the introduction of the current "final 8" system in 2000, no-one has won from outside the top 3.

gfladder.png

There is a team that has won from 3rd twice and been runner-up from 4th...we all know who they are.

Seems to be some speculation in the media that this year has the best chance for some time of a surprise, even from outside the top 4. No-one is rating number 4 of course.

As ever, happy to supply charts that answer your finals-related questions!

All the talk of a 5 to 8th team winning the flag is Victorian media flogs trying to talk up the finals. If you ask me the top 3 (ok let's say top 4) are further ahead of the rest than ever.

[jetts32]

The Swans like to make things harder for themselves just to make history. Don't worry about 4th, if we can win it, we will.

For some reason, even without Jack and Parker I'm still confident. I have no idea why, but I am. The forward line and midfield has just seemed to click lately. I know we haven't had the best competition but even earlier in the year against lesser opponents we weren't kicking 20 goals a game. It's like the midfield aren't conscious over 1 forward anymore which makes us really dangerous.

Tippett, Reid, Heeney, Mitchell, Hanners, Kennedy and a few others are peaking at the right time of the year.

Add Buddy, Mcglynn and Rohan to come in and find some form and we're getting serious.

[Auntie.Gerald]

if the hawks had no Sam Mitchell and Luke Hodge or Freeo had no Fyfe or Hill could they win GF from 4th ? or even top 3 ?

We have no Parker (players player 2014) and no Jack our co captain both as integral to our finals fight as the above

[neilfws]

How have first week losers from the Top 4 gone? Made the PF? Made the GF? Won the whole thing?

Great suggestion. Bit of work involved there. I'll get back to you...

- - - Updated - - -

For some reason, even without Jack and Parker I'm still confident. I have no idea why, but I am.

I feel exactly the same way. Maybe we feel more "real" this year, after the humiliation of falling for our own hype last time around. Back to being quiet achievers. And I agree, some key players peaking at the right time.

[neilfws]

How have first week losers from the Top 4 gone? Made the PF? Made the GF? Won the whole thing?

Right - here's an attempt to visualise how the top 8 go, from week to week. Might be better summarised as some numbers, requires a bit of staring. But it sort of shows what you asked for.

finals.png

[aguy]

Right - here's an attempt to visualise how the top 8 go, from week to week. Might be better summarised as some numbers, requires a bit of staring. But it sort of shows what you asked for.

finals.png

You're right takes a bit of staring but if you look at the grand finals it's almost almost from the top half of the top 4 as you would expect.

I have a feeling this year there are realistically 5 teams that can win. The telling statistic for me is the defensive record of the top 5.

The points against for the top 5 range from hawthorn at 1548 to Sydney at 1578. That's a 30 point range. Quite remarkable. The teams 6 to 8 the range is 1821 to 1937. There is around a 250 point difference in the defences of the top 5 and the other teams. That suggests to me that Bulldogs Adelaide and north don't have the defence to win a premiership.

[neilfws]

You're right takes a bit of staring but if you look at the grand finals it's almost almost from the top half of the top 4 as you would expect.

The points against for the top 5 range from hawthorn at 1548 to Sydney at 1578. That's a 30 point range. Quite remarkable. The teams 6 to 8 the range is 1821 to 1937. There is around a 250 point difference in the defences of the top 5 and the other teams. That suggests to me that Bulldogs Adelaide and north don't have the defence to win a premiership.

Very interesting numbers, thanks.

And to answer the original question after a good stare: I think a GF win after losing the first week only happened 3 times in this era; Brisbane (2003), Sydney (2005) and West Coast (2006).

The commonest pattern when top 4 finishers lose in week 1 is LWL (23 times). Out in straight sets (LL) happened 4 times. Interestingly, I don't think a first week loser has ever been GF runner-up (LWWL).

[neilfws]

here's an attempt to visualise how the top 8 go, from week to week

I've been tweaking this one. I reckon it works better in this version, with years along the bottom and each row = finals week 1-4 (or 1-5 in the case of 2010).\

finals.png