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Thread: Is it already Killing Season 2016 (List Management) after 2 rounds

  1. #1
    Regular in the Side WauchopeAnalyst's Avatar
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    Unhappy Is it already Killing Season 2016 (List Management) after 2 rounds

    With so much water going under the bridge, until the end of the season, I was suprised by the amount of chatter about contracts and needing to save cash on our list.

    So I have checked bigfooty and trawled through contractual discussions and the list appears to be about right. Who do we keep and who is pretty much done...

    In order (my Top 6)

    Mitchell
    Jack
    Heeney
    Papley
    Hewett
    Lloyd

    and then the list cloggers or a bit too old or slow.....

    Swans Contracted players ast at 05042016.jpg

    I just can't see how we are going to keep everyone we want! 25 player contracts finished this year

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by WauchopeAnalyst View Post
    With so much water going under the bridge, until the end of the season, I was suprised by the amount of chatter about contracts and needing to save cash on our list.

    So I have checked bigfooty and trawled through contractual discussions and the list appears to be about right. Who do we keep and who is pretty much done...

    In order (my Top 6)

    Mitchell
    Jack
    Heeney
    Papley
    Hewett
    Lloyd

    and then the list cloggers or a bit too old or slow.....

    Swans Contracted players ast at 05042016.jpg

    I just can't see how we are going to keep everyone we want! 25 player contracts finished this year
    Jeepers, there's a few names that are required there.....

    On the whole I think we're reasonably placed to retain who we want.

    I see the following 10 as major required with comments

    * Keiran - will re-sign
    * Laidler - possibly at risk but would imagine a modestly upgraded yet long term deal (a la Rampe) would be attractive to him since we saved his career
    * Towers - Could attract some interest but should re-sign on a similar longer term but relatively modest contract
    * Tom Mitchell - at risk and could be the sacrifice
    * Lloyd - wouldn't be a massive target for other club so should be re-signed
    * Harry, Robbo, Hewett, Issac, Paley - from a development point of view they'd be insane to re-sign. Could well see them being offered two year deals with the proviso that their next deal starts to get them up the pay structure

    The other players need us more than we need them

    I'm not too worried about this and I'd expect that the club is waiting to find out what the AFLPA and AFL negotiate re cap increases. I also would think the other clubs are in similar positions.

    We will need to find a bit of coin somewhere and I'd say that the deals would probably be slightly back-ended and that McGlynn and Ted retiring, and probably freeing up a goof $600K plus is a given. Tom worries me, he is on $500K per year and if our space is tight we may need to let him go in order to re-sign Harry, Robbo, Hewett, Issac and Paley.

    Overall though I think we'll be fine as the new deal will fgive us more free cash and the existing contracts of our A Listers will look like pretty good value

    The new CBA needs to be signed off by June 30 so I wouldn't expect to see anything done before then. August is really getting too close to finals so expect a flurry of activity in July. I'm sure the club will be ready to pounce. It helps of course in re-signing players if you are having a good season and it helps if the players are happy and getting a game and for that reason I feel fairly confident but I could see Tom getting offered $1m a year from Carlton and that would be hard to match and hard to knock back.

    TPP numbers as high as $15m are being bandied about at the moment which to me seems insane. If we do get an additional $5M next year that will simply blow every club payscale out of the water so I'd be thinking a more incremental increase may be agreed

    I'm not sure how that upsets the apple cart either if you're JPK who signed in the old world and suddenly see players like Towers or Cunningham potentially getting more than you. The recent signees like Tippett, Buddy, Hanners, Reg and Luke won't have an issue as they would have signed their new deals fully aware they had a big increase factored in. Maybe a JPK will get an improved yet extended deal to keep him at parity and also keep him at the club.
    Last edited by Mug Punter; 5th April 2016 at 05:27 PM.

  3. #3
    Veterans List Ludwig's Avatar
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    Every club has salary cap issues and are not so quick to shell out big bucks just because a player is out of contract. Not all players move for money either. If it were the case, then Hawthorn would lose half their list, because just about everyone is a star and they can't all be on big contracts. Key forwards are the ones that are most susceptible to getting big offers, and top grade key defenders are in vogue as well. It's probably easier to raid GWS or GC if you want a player. We are not talking about free agents here either, so a club will have to shell out compensation in players or draft picks on top of the salary offer. And once you offer a player from another club big money, then it raises the bar for the good players already on your list.

    The only ones that I see a problem with this year are Mitchell and Hewett. I think if Hewett can hold down a spot by year end, he will stay. I'd try to sign him up asap. I think Tom would like to stay a Swan, so it might take a pretty good offer to get him off us. I can't see him being offered anywhere close to a mil a year. What would they have to pay Cripps, Murphy and Gibbs if they did?

    Not too many Swans with regular spots in the senior side want to leave. We are one of the big destination clubs and are more likely to attract players than lose them.

  4. #4
    If we resign both Mitchell and Hewett we will have done great business as they are both sure to be offered big bucks elsewhere I reckon Freo will be chasing Tom M (Barlow replacement) and Carlton as usual and Port Adelaide for Hewett - as you say interesting call re JPK especially if he wants huge dollars would hate to lose TM and GH and of course JPK - will be interesting times for Tom Harley to navigate
    Last edited by DA_Swan; 5th April 2016 at 07:41 PM.

  5. #5
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    Why would you sacrifice Mitchell to keep Harry and Robbo. It is a no brainer to keep him. The club rarely gets it wrong.

  6. #6
    Regular in the Side WauchopeAnalyst's Avatar
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    Three good posts and the most important issue might be CBA and TPP.

    I hope these two are tall defenders and aged about 21 years of age. ????

    Probably poor effort by me.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by DA_Swan View Post
    If we resign both Mitchell and Hewett we will have done great business as they are both sure to be offered big bucks elsewhere I reckon Freo will be chasing Tom M (Barlow replacement) and Carlton as usual and Port Adelaide for Hewett - as you say interesting call re JPK especially if he wants huge dollars would hate to lose TM and GH and of course JPK - will be interesting times for Tom Harley to navigate
    Ludwig is right in saying that they are NOT free agents. As such they can't demand to go to another club. I've been looking at this today to educate myself. The options are that they can come to an agreement on a contract. Or the player can request a trade. It is then up to the clubs to come to a mutually agreeable trade in the trade period. Good and well if they do and for hewett and especially for Mitchell we should be very well compensated in such a trade. If no agreement on a trade can be reached then the player is delisted having refused the new contract from our club. This does NOT make them a delisted free agent because a contract was offered to them and they refused. Instead if they were to continue their afl career they would need to go into the preseason draft. They can only be taken as a delisted free agent if they were delisted by their original club without having been offered a contract renewal.

    That is my understanding but I am happy to be corrected.

    - - - Updated - - -

    http://www.aflplayers.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/2013-Free-Agency-Infograhpic.pdf

    A flowchart for player movement.

  8. #8
    There is no way we would get rid of Mitchell.
    Plus mcglynn and trd would be on close to a million combined

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by aguy View Post
    Ludwig is right in saying that they are NOT free agents. As such they can't demand to go to another club. I've been looking at this today to educate myself. The options are that they can come to an agreement on a contract. Or the player can request a trade. It is then up to the clubs to come to a mutually agreeable trade in the trade period. Good and well if they do and for hewett and especially for Mitchell we should be very well compensated in such a trade. If no agreement on a trade can be reached then the player is delisted having refused the new contract from our club. This does NOT make them a delisted free agent because a contract was offered to them and they refused. Instead if they were to continue their afl career they would need to go into the preseason draft. They can only be taken as a delisted free agent if they were delisted by their original club without having been offered a contract renewal.

    That is my understanding but I am happy to be corrected.

    - - - Updated - - -

    http://www.aflplayers.com.au/wp-cont...nfograhpic.pdf

    A flowchart for player movement.
    Yep this is my understanding as well.

    My only reference to Tom was that he might look at a shorter contract to get him to the 8 years where he can test the water as a restricted free agent.

    I'm not advocating losing Tom at all, I just feel he is the one we may struggle to squeeze in if a club comes in hard for him and he decides to request a trade. And the reality these days is that if a player is out of contract and requests a trade he usually finds his way there.

    I expect Hewett to play 15-18 senior games minimum this year and I'd be shocked if wanted a trade at this stage of his development provided we come up with a competitive offer which for him shouldn't be a bid deal.

    So. barry says Ted and Ben are on $1,000,000 a year between them. Riiiiiiight? We have a cap of $10M and we have Buddy, Tippett, Ted and Ben McGlynn taking up 30% of it. Do the math! I'd say $600K would be a lot closer to the mark but it's pure speculation really.

    Until the clubs know how much they have to play with, until the CBA is finalised by 30 June, as it must be, not much will happen I'd say.

    Overall I reckon we'll be pretty well placed to mop up most of our required players in July - I reckon it will be clear by mid-August which players are looking at the possibility of a trade because I think we'll move pretty quickly. And I think that it would be more than possible that they'll upgrade JPK's deal for the last year of his contract if he is prepared to sign on for an extra 2 or 3 seasons.

  10. #10
    Isnt the average salary in the afl $300k. Ted and mcglynn are above average and probably back loaded a bit. Ted would be on $500k+

  11. #11
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  12. #12
    Only 4 players in the AFL earnt $1m.

    I think we can assume Buddy is one of them. Tippet would have a smaller contract extension based on a) not having to price himself to the swans in the PSD, and b) being ordinary for 3 years.

    So I'd say at swans: (wild guess)
    Buddy $1m..
    2-3 ish at the $700K mark: Tippo, Kennedy, etc.
    10's ish at the $450 - $500 mark. Ted, Grundy, Jack, etc
    Bottom 8 of the best 22 at the $250K
    Rest of list: Fringe/reserve players at $50K to $150k

    This is the distribution at most teams. while the average salary might be $300k, there are a couple of big earners, and a @@@@ load of low earners.

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