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Thread: Final Ladder Position

  1. #1
    Warming the Bench
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    Final Ladder Position

    Thanks to Adelaide and the Bulldogs losing tonight, assuming the Hawks (vs Richmond) and GWS (vs Port away) win tomorrow, we will be third on the ladder at the end of the round.

    We are then likely to finish 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th.

    • Hawks final matches are Carlton, Melbourne, North Melbourne, WC (away) and Pies. Should win four or five of these.
    • GWS's final matches are Richmond, GC (away), WC (H), Freo (H) and North Melbourne. Should win all five of these.
    • Our final matches are Freo away (Pav's 350th game), Port Adelaide, St Kilda (away), North Melbourne (in Tasmania) and Richmond. We hope to win all five, but Port and St Kilda are hot at the moment and NM and Richmond also shouldn't be taken for granted.
    • Geelong have Bulldogs, Essendon, Richmond, Brisbane, Melbourne. Should win all of these with Bulldogs decimated by injury.
    • Adelaide have Bombers, Lions, Freo away, Port, and West Coast. Should win all of these.
    • Bulldogs have Geelong, North Melbourne, Pies, Essendon, Freo (away). Should win all but the Geelong game.
    • WC have Pies (away), Freo. Giants (away), Hawks (home) and Adelaide (away). Possibly only win the Freo game.
    • NM have St Kilda, Bulldogs, Hawks, us (in Tasmania), and GWS (H).


    Hawks guaranteed top spot if they win five of final six. In the unlikely event they lose two matches (e.g., WC in Perth and vs Pies), they will tumble as low as fifth due to very low %.

    GWS will finish ahead of us if on same number of wins as they have superior % (and more likely to gain % than us I think as they play Gold Coast and also Freo at home). GWS, Geelong and Adelaide are all likely to finish on 17 wins. Geelong likely to slip ahead of us on percentage too as they have games vs Essendon and Brisbane.

    So if we win all five games (taking us to 17 games), we will finish 3rd or 4th - behind GWS and possibly Geelong on %. If GWS drops a game, we will finish 2nd or 3rd based on Geelong's percentage (assuming they win their final five).

    If we drop one game, we will finish fifth even if GWS drops one game - unless they are thumped - as our percentage will be lower.

    Likely final eight if we win all five matches:

    Hawks (18 or 19 wins)
    GWS (17 wins)
    Geelong (17 wins)
    Sydney (17 wins)
    Adelaide (17 wins)
    Bulldogs (16 wins)
    West Coast (14 wins)
    North Melbourne/Port Adelaide

  2. #2
    Its an amazing year. A tight win against carlton and we jump from 5th to 2nd. GWS win today and they jump from 7th to 2nd.

  3. #3
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    I think GWS, Geelong, Sydney and Adelaide will fight it for the top four.

    But I can't see them winning all of their remaining games.

    Carlton at home was probably the most winnable of our last six games and we struggled to beat them. The other sides may also struggle with consistency and intensity as well.
    Last edited by SeanM; 24th July 2016 at 10:06 AM.

  4. #4
    It's Goodes to cheer!! Site Admin ScottH's Avatar
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    I had us finishing 5th last week, now top 4 looks more likely, with the Dogs loss.
    All going well of course.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by SeanM View Post
    I think GWS, Geelong, Sydney and Adelaide will fight it for the top four.

    But I can't see them winning all of their remaining games.

    Carlton at home was probably the most winnable of our last six games and we struggled to beat them. The other sides may also struggle with consistency and intensity as well.
    Yeah, I agree. There are lots of possible upsets, and the only thing we can do is win our games and win them well to take advantage if Geelong, GWS or Adelaide slip up.

  6. #6
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    finish 4th ands beat Hawks at the MCG first week - sweet!

  7. #7
    It's Goodes to cheer!! Site Admin ScottH's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 707 View Post
    finish 4th ands beat Hawks at the MCG first week - sweet!
    Finish 3rd behind GWS and get a "home" final at ANZ!!

  8. #8
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    I would think the chances of five teams winning 17 or more games in a single season would be quite slim. Last year one team did it, in 2014 three did & in 2013 two teams won 17 or more games. For us, GWS, Geelong and Adelaide to all make it to 17 wins, then they are all going to have to win every game for the rest of the home-and-away season. On paper I can see Geelong winning their last five. We have tricky away games against St Kilda & North Melbourne. GWS are away to North. Adelaide have Port & West Coast to get past. So right now, I'd pick the top 4 as Hawthorn/Geelong/GWS/us. GWS & Geelong may swap places. Either way, we'd be playing Hawthorn in Week 1 at the MCG. And maybe that's not so bad. We've won our last two against Hawthorn at the MCG. If Geelong slip up against the weaker teams, I'm not convinced we can beat a full strength GWS at ANZ. We are playing so many inexperienced players these days, GWS may well have a bigger core group
    of guys that are used to playing together than us. Maybe we are better off in the long run by beating Hawthorn early in the finals and knocking some wind out of their
    sails.


    • Hawks final matches are Carlton, Melbourne, North Melbourne, WC (away) and Pies. Should win four or five of these.
    • GWS's final matches are Richmond, GC (away), WC (H), Freo (H) and North Melbourne. Should win all five of these.
    • Our final matches are Freo away (Pav's 350th game), Port Adelaide, St Kilda (away), North Melbourne (in Tasmania) and Richmond. We hope to win all five, but Port and St Kilda are hot at the moment and NM and Richmond also shouldn't be taken for granted.
    • Geelong have Bulldogs, Essendon, Richmond, Brisbane, Melbourne. Should win all of these with Bulldogs decimated by injury.
    • Adelaide have Bombers, Lions, Freo away, Port, and West Coast. Should win all of these.
    • Bulldogs have Geelong, North Melbourne, Pies, Essendon, Freo (away). Should win all but the Geelong game.
    • WC have Pies (away), Freo. Giants (away), Hawks (home) and Adelaide (away). Possibly only win the Freo game.
    • NM have St Kilda, Bulldogs, Hawks, us (in Tasmania), and GWS (H).



    Likely final eight if we win all five matches:

    Hawks (18 or 19 wins)
    GWS (17 wins)
    Geelong (17 wins)
    Sydney (17 wins)
    Adelaide (17 wins)
    Bulldogs (16 wins)
    West Coast (14 wins)
    North Melbourne/Port Adelaide
    Last edited by ScottH; 25th July 2016 at 01:20 PM. Reason: Fixed Tags

  9. #9
    If GWS finish 2nd they get a home final and if we finish 3rd we will play them first up in the qualifying final. I remember earlier in the year the AFL hasn't ruled out the possibility of moving a Giants home final to the SCG depending on the opponent and the supporter base they have.
    If we are to finish 3rd and play GWS it could be a chance it's played at the SCG.

    Sent from my SM-G900I using Tapatalk

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by PeterGoulden17 View Post
    If GWS finish 2nd they get a home final and if we finish 3rd we will play them first up in the qualifying final. I remember earlier in the year the AFL hasn't ruled out the possibility of moving a Giants home final to the SCG depending on the opponent and the supporter base they have.
    If we are to finish 3rd and play GWS it could be a chance it's played at the SCG.

    Sent from my SM-G900I using Tapatalk
    The uproar would be deafening if a Giants home final against the Swans were to be moved to the SCG. I think they'd definitely see if they could hold it at Stadium Australia. If that weren't practical I reckon they would leave it at the Showgrounds, notwithstanding the impact that would have on the possible attendance.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by liz View Post
    The uproar would be deafening if a Giants home final against the Swans were to be moved to the SCG. I think they'd definitely see if they could hold it at Stadium Australia. If that weren't practical I reckon they would leave it at the Showgrounds, notwithstanding the impact that would have on the possible attendance.
    They could put it at ANZ Stadium as even we hate playing there.

  12. #12
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    I hope the AFL are ready for a record low finals attendance number for a GWS home final if it's not against the Swans.

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