Thanks to Adelaide and the Bulldogs losing tonight, assuming the Hawks (vs Richmond) and GWS (vs Port away) win tomorrow, we will be third on the ladder at the end of the round.

We are then likely to finish 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th.

  • Hawks final matches are Carlton, Melbourne, North Melbourne, WC (away) and Pies. Should win four or five of these.
  • GWS's final matches are Richmond, GC (away), WC (H), Freo (H) and North Melbourne. Should win all five of these.
  • Our final matches are Freo away (Pav's 350th game), Port Adelaide, St Kilda (away), North Melbourne (in Tasmania) and Richmond. We hope to win all five, but Port and St Kilda are hot at the moment and NM and Richmond also shouldn't be taken for granted.
  • Geelong have Bulldogs, Essendon, Richmond, Brisbane, Melbourne. Should win all of these with Bulldogs decimated by injury.
  • Adelaide have Bombers, Lions, Freo away, Port, and West Coast. Should win all of these.
  • Bulldogs have Geelong, North Melbourne, Pies, Essendon, Freo (away). Should win all but the Geelong game.
  • WC have Pies (away), Freo. Giants (away), Hawks (home) and Adelaide (away). Possibly only win the Freo game.
  • NM have St Kilda, Bulldogs, Hawks, us (in Tasmania), and GWS (H).


Hawks guaranteed top spot if they win five of final six. In the unlikely event they lose two matches (e.g., WC in Perth and vs Pies), they will tumble as low as fifth due to very low %.

GWS will finish ahead of us if on same number of wins as they have superior % (and more likely to gain % than us I think as they play Gold Coast and also Freo at home). GWS, Geelong and Adelaide are all likely to finish on 17 wins. Geelong likely to slip ahead of us on percentage too as they have games vs Essendon and Brisbane.

So if we win all five games (taking us to 17 games), we will finish 3rd or 4th - behind GWS and possibly Geelong on %. If GWS drops a game, we will finish 2nd or 3rd based on Geelong's percentage (assuming they win their final five).

If we drop one game, we will finish fifth even if GWS drops one game - unless they are thumped - as our percentage will be lower.

Likely final eight if we win all five matches:

Hawks (18 or 19 wins)
GWS (17 wins)
Geelong (17 wins)
Sydney (17 wins)
Adelaide (17 wins)
Bulldogs (16 wins)
West Coast (14 wins)
North Melbourne/Port Adelaide