The Case for Nankervis over Naismith this weekend

[graemed]

There is little doubt in my mind that Tippett will be selected for the match against North Melbourne this weekend, that being the case all that remains is to decide what changes to a winning side would best accommodate that change.

Like for like seems to be the obvious choice and that means a choice between Naismith and Nankervis.

As a critic of the pace of Nankervis and a fan of the ruck work and marking of Naismith it may seem odd that I am making a case for the former.

1. The match is being played in winter in Tasmania. Nankervis is a native Tasmanian and accustomed to the conditions. As I understand it Naismith hails from the Grafton area hardly similar to the conditions one might experience in Hobart on an August afternoon. This may seem spurious at first glance but if you've ever been to Hobart in winter you'll know it is not friendly. Having the right mental outlook from the start will be critical, North will be fuming at their loss to Hawthorn and eager to make up for the slow start last week.

2. The match will be a test of endurance as much as skill. Nankervis plays well in wet, windy weather. Naismith is less comfortable in these conditions and his greatest advantage which is his height and ruck work will be undervalued. That said the forecast is for cloudy but dry weather (10% chance of rain). Maybe this is 50-50.

3. Physicality comes down in favour of Nankervis. We have seen him crash packs and I like the way he goes about his work.

4. Skills come down about even. Naismith has better skills around the ground, moves better and marks well. Nankervis kicks well and is a good pack mark but less effective as a pure ruckman.

[vleung1208]

Interesting analysis. For me, especially given Tippett is back for his first game, he will spend less time in the ruck than earlier in the year. In that case, I'd go with Naismith so that Tippo isn't overdone in the ruck and can ease his way back in - assuming the weather is dry. I think they will take all 3 of them to Hobart and decide based on conditions. In the wet, Nankervis would be the better fit. Good to be spoilt with options!

[Flying South]

Some valid logic. However the match up with Goldstein requires a more mobile ruckman. For me Naismith wins out there.

[linko]

My argument is much more simplistic, Nanka deserves to play in front of his family and friends and if tippo will play majority forward, I think Nanka will be better if the mix is 50/50 forward ruck as he's a more natural forward. Naismith will be better for a rest coming into finals also.

[aardvark]

Is it possible we will play all three ? Leave Tip at FF and let the other two handle the ruck duties.

[56-14]

My argument is much more simplistic, Nanka deserves to play in front of his family and friends and if tippo will play majority forward, I think Nanka will be better if the mix is 50/50 forward ruck as he's a more natural forward. Naismith will be better for a rest coming into finals also.

With respect - disagree.
Whoever is selected for this match should be based purely on us winning - not pleasing player families.

[Sandrevan]

If Tippett comes in as expected he will be down on match fitness which could see him used mainly as a forward target.

The main ruck duties would be Naismaith or Nankervis. Sam is more mobile and a better tap ruckman; Toby is a bit more physical and grew up in Tassie. It's a dilemma. If we play both who misses out - probably Xavier R. I don't want to see XR dropped. He is very mobile, marks well, kicks well and provides good structure in the forward line.
I suspect the Swans will go with the ruckman who can compete with Goldstein in the ruck and around the ground. I think Sam will get the nod - just.

[bloodspirit]

Interesting analysis. For me, especially given Tippett is back for his first game, he will spend less time in the ruck than earlier in the year. In that case, I'd go with Naismith so that Tippo isn't overdone in the ruck and can ease his way back in - assuming the weather is dry. I think they will take all 3 of them to Hobart and decide based on conditions. In the wet, Nankervis would be the better fit. Good to be spoilt with options!

+1

I reckon they'll go with Naismith and Tippett.

[Billericay]

Is it possible we will play all three ? Leave Tip at FF and let the other two handle the ruck duties.

Because it's Goldstein I don't think they'll be able to rely on Naismith (hasn't got the tank) or Nankervis to ruck virtually alone against him, so I think XR will make way and they'll triple team him with Tippett barely rucking at all

- - - Updated - - -

But I imagine that XR would come back after that and one of N or N would make way against Richmond

[djmce]

Maybe drop one of Towers or XR depending on weather and go tall

[longmile]

Either way Sinclair is now my 4th pick for Ruckman

[crackedactor]

Because it's Goldstein I don't think they'll be able to rely on Naismith (hasn't got the tank) or Nankervis to ruck virtually alone against him, so I think XR will make way and they'll triple team him with Tippett barely rucking at all

- - - Updated - - -

But I imagine that XR would come back after that and one of N or N would make way against Richmond

Cannot have three tall ruckman types in the side. Has to be Naismith Rucking with Tippett also doing some ruckwork. North's weakest is their speed on the outside, therefore Towers is a must this weekend. XR deserves to keep his place in the side as a decoy for Buddy up forward.