Originally Posted by
Ludwig
Maybe I don't fully understand the change the AFL has made, but I have reread it and it comes out the same to me. I think there is room to maneuver with the variable list sizes of 38 to 40. It is also not that complicated to work through 1 desired academy selection, such as what we've had with Mills and Heeney. But it becomes quite complex if you are in the situation GWS find themselves, having 5 highly rated academy players and lots of possible listed player movements. It must be a nightmare trying to manage their situation this year.
Perhaps the AFL intended to have GWS lose player value this year because they realise that they went overboard on their concessions. As I said in my previous post, I think the Queensland clubs will be the ones to suffer most from this change in the long run, as out of state players simply don't want to go there. They don't need to have things become even more difficult for them. Brisbane has lost a huge amount of draft value in recent times due to player movements.
One good strategy to counter the change, looking long term, is to go light on draft picks in years with good academy players and load up for the following year, carry a deficit into the next year and pay for it then when the exact value point cost is known. Then you can get full value for the discount. It's easier to pay for picks when you already know the value point cost as opposed to trying to anticipate where they will be bid for.
On a more specific matter to this draft, I think we should try to exploit the GWS situation by targeting Jeremy Finlayson, as the Giants may be looking to open list places so they can carry more value points to the draft to pay for their high academy picks. I'm sure there is a lot I haven't thought about and will look forward to the GWS reaction and other scenarios as the this rule change is digested.
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