+1 but can we win with the umpires against us? They've been screwing us for the last decade and cost us a premiership last year. I can just picture us in the GF against the Brave Demons getting screwed over yet again, just as we saw tonight. The umpires are either biased, influenced by headquarters or grossly incompetent. I don't buy the incompetence theory because we are consistently on the receiving end. Until this gets fixed its not an even competition.
It is, yes, but it can also be interpreted as a ladder.
The finals are starting to take shape. Six teams that are almost certain to make it are Adelaide, Geelong, GWS, Melbourne, Port and Richmond. The last two places are going to be fought out among Essendon, St Kilda, Sydney, West Coast and Western Bulldogs.
The following games between these five sides are the most important in deciding who makes the finals:
Round 15: Western Bulldogs vs West Coast
Round 17: St Kilda vs Essendon
Round 18: Sydney vs St Kilda
Round 19: Western Bulldogs vs Essendon
Round 20: St Kilda vs West Coast
Essendon has the easiest fixture and should make the finals. They only play Adelaide out of the top 6 sides.
Our fixture has four away games against top-6 sides to come, but also five games against bottom-7 sides and an 8-point game against St Kilda. We will probably need to win at least one of the away games against Adelaide, GWS, Geelong or Melbourne to make the finals.
"Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final
Its hard to tell where the swans are at. Are they back to 2016 form, or just an average side riding their luck.?
Must be hard for selectors. Just had two wins that could have easily been losses.
Our fate is in our hands as we have games against most of the others vying for a place in the eight, must win the classic 8 point games starting this Friday against Melbourne. The teams that look well placed in the top of the eight also have a number of games against each other in the run home so don't think anyone is a certainty yet.
The Melbourne game is going to be very tough - their bravery and run with the ball looked impressive in their win against WC. Rohan Connolly wrote an interesting article pumping up their flag prospects in The Age today.
Why Melbourne can win the 2017 AFL premiership
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Out of our remaining games, the Melbourne game is probably going to be the most difficult to win. That's a big call with Adelaide, Geelong and GWS to come, all away. We beat Adelaide and Geelong in the finals last year and injuries have made GWS vulnerable.
Against Melbourne, the only thing in our favour is that traditionally we do well against Melbourne. We haven't lost to them for several years and we have been ahead of them on the head to head record since 1898.
"Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final
Melbourne still need to prove themselves against the top sides. Their run home includes games against Adelaide, GWS and Port Adelaide. They will need to win at least one of them - perhaps more - to be a genuine premiership chance. They're not good enough to win the flag from fifth or sixth due to lack of finals experience. They also play Sydney and we have been a difficult opponent for them recently. Their other games are all winnable: Carlton, North, St Kilda, Brisbane and Collingwood.
Their form has been somewhat inconsistent. Their losses include Fremantle (2 points), Hawthorn (3 points) and North Melbourne (14 points), and they have also beaten Adelaide by 41 points and Western Bulldogs by 57 points. IMO they need to gain finals experience before they can be a genuine premiership chance. The last side to win a premiership without playing in the finals in either of the previous two years was Adelaide in 1997.
"Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final
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