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Thread: Finals

  1. #13
    Senior Player Bloody Hell's Avatar
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    17-6

    Double chance. Win first up away. Week off. Home Final. Grand Final. Premiership.... Easy.
    The eternal connundrum "what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object" was finally solved when David Hasselhoff punched himself in the face.

  2. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Bloody Hell View Post
    17-6

    Grand Final. Premiership.... Easy.
    mmmm

  3. #15
    I'm just glad to see the Swans playing well again. If they can keep that up (and keep most of their best players fit) I think they'll scrape in. It's a ridiculously even year.

  4. #16
    Veterans List Ludwig's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bloody Hell View Post
    17-6

    Double chance. Win first up away. Week off. Home Final. Grand Final. Premiership.... Easy.
    It must be an advantage that we get to play 23 games and the rest of the league only play 22. The extra 4 points should help us push into the top 4.

  5. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Markwebbos View Post
    I'm just glad to see the Swans playing well again. If they can keep that up (and keep most of their best players fit) I think they'll scrape in. It's a ridiculously even year.
    Yep. I agree. I actually think that the biggest benefit from our form turnaround could be that Reid and Zak are more likely to re-sign knowing we are still in a premiership window.

  6. #18
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    Just by making September , we will be in the best form of the season. There will be no limping into the finals this year.

  7. #19
    Aut vincere aut mori Thunder Shaker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AB Swannie View Post
    FWIW, the bookies rate us less than a 50/50 chance to make the finals ($2.25). However, I think 50/50 is just about right. If we can stay fit and keep close to the current side on the park, I'd back us to win 10 of the next 13 games and finish 13-9. Even a 12-10 finish with decent percentage might be good enough.
    In the last five years (the five seasons of an 18-team competition), the average number of wins for the 8th-placed team was 12.6 with 9th averaging 11.6. The minimum number of wins to make the finals was 12 so 12 wins could be good enough, but in 2012 the 8th-placed side had 14 wins.

    I think 13 wins may be required to make the finals this year. This year is shaping as being similar to the 2012 season, with the top sides being fairly even. This means the top sides are giving up wins to lower sides and this inflates the number of wins for sides in the middle of the ladder. In 2012, only seven wins separated the top side (17-5) from 13th (10-12). After round 9 this year, only four wins separates top from 17th.

    The good news is most of our remaining games are winnable. We do not play a top four side again until round 17 (GWS) and the highest-ranked sides we play in that time are Richmond (7th) and Western Bulldogs (8th). By round 17, we could theoretically already have 11 wins (though about 9 wins would be about par). If we have 9 wins by round 17, we would need to win three or four of GWS (A), St Kilda (H), Hawthorn (A), Geelong (A), Fremantle (H), Adelaide (A) and Carlton (H) to make the finals. I think we could be going into round 23 with our finals prospects in our own hands - beat Carlton, we're in.
    "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

  8. #20
    Travelling Swannie!! mcs's Avatar
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    Its a very strange old season this year. It'll be tough for us to make it, but who knows with the way footy is this season, and the fact teams are beating each other unexpectedly almost every round.

    I think we will need 13 wins to make finals - which looks a stretch, but a chance if we can get on a good run. Can't drop any silly ones from here on in however.

    In the end though, as long as we continue to play good footy like we have over the past few weeks, I'll be happy. If we do fall into finals, whoever we meet in the first week won't be best pleased to see us!
    "You get the feeling that like Monty Python's Black Knight, the Swans would regard amputation as merely a flesh wound."

  9. #21
    Goodesgoodesgoodesgoodes! Industrial Fan's Avatar
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    12 wins will do it with the evenness at the bottom (Lions aside). 2012 had both gws and suns getting pumped every week with a few other total rubbish teams for good measure.

    12 and good % is my tip.

    We have no margin for error and the Carlton game is the one we should have banked imo.

  10. #22
    Still a long way to go. A key injury (buddy, reg, Kennedy) and we are toast.

    Even if we limp into 8th, 4 finals all on the road (unless we get lucky and meet GWS) is to much. And don't compare to dogs. They may have finished 7th but got two home finals including grand final.

  11. #23
    Carpe Noctem CureTheSane's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by graemed View Post
    Now here's the thing...glass half full/empty.
    I'm the ultimate optimist.
    For me the glass is always totally full - 50% water and 50% air
    The difference between insanity and genius is measured only in success.

  12. #24
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    If the Swans play their remaining games like the past 2 matches, I'd say they're a sneaky chance to make the 8. If I had to bet, I'd put my money on them finishing 9th or 10th.

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