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Thread: Finals

  1. #73
    According to Champion Data we are currently a 40% chance of playing finals: AFL Power Rankings, Round 12 2017: Fox Footy�s ranking of every club from best to worst | Fox Sports

    Chance of making top 8: 40 per cent

    Chance of making top 4: 5 per cent

    Since Round 7, the Swans have had the best form in the AFL, scoring the most points and allowing the fewest. It�s surely no coincidence that around that time was when they started getting their players back from injury after a preseason in which they didn�t achieve their fitness goals. Despite being 14th on the AFL ladder, the Swans are rated by Champion Data as the most likely side currently outside the top eight to play finals.

  2. #74
    Season defining game this week. I mean they all are, but if we lose we could be back down in bottom 4 and really the chances of final 8 would be around 10%.

  3. #75
    Senior Player Swansongster's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mug Punter View Post
    Problem is of course we just have no margin for error which is why the Hawks defeat is so annoying.

    They are all must win for the next few games so needless to say if we don't beat the Tigers we're pretty much done. I personally feel quite confident about this game
    I'm still having nightmares about last year's game at the G against Tiges. Had that won but did a Richmond and found a way to lose from the last kick.

  4. #76

    Top 8 - can we do it ?

    Yes

    We are a better team then 9-13

    One or two teams can fall out of the top 8

    Ie Melbourne or bombers

    I say yes

    What do u say ?
    "be tough, only when it gets tough"


  5. #77
    It's Goodes to cheer!! ScottH's Avatar
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    Rising slowly.

  6. #78
    I have never stopped believing. If we beat the bombers next week and the cats beat fremantle, the suns beat saints and north beat dogs. We are in the 8. Unlikely, but possible going on this year's results.

    I am calling it now. We will win the flag this year. I have that much belief in our boys. They will create history.

  7. #79
    Quote Originally Posted by Flying South View Post
    I have never stopped believing. If we beat the bombers next week and the cats beat fremantle, the suns beat saints and north beat dogs. We are in the 8. Unlikely, but possible going on this year's results.

    I am calling it now. We will win the flag this year. I have that much belief in our boys. They will create history.
    Huge call. I hope you are right. We'd out fairytale any possible GF opponent, except perhaps Freo or Saints

  8. #80
    I think
    12 wins
    13 wins a stretch

    Fingers crossed but we have a long way to go

  9. #81
    Given how preposterously even� the comp is this year I think the Swans have done brilliantly to win 5 out of the last 6. It's arguable it would have been 6 out of 6 but for injury (Hawks-gate).

    We are only one win off the 8. If we keep up this form we will make finals. But I'll feel much more confident once we are inside the right.

    There's no standout team this year either, GWS aren't going to get all their players back, so everyone is vincible.

    I'm not going to say we'll win the flag but I'm very optimistic we'll make finals and then anything really is possible

  10. #82
    Aut vincere aut mori Thunder Shaker's Avatar
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    Here is the ladder for the last 6 weeks only.

    Code:
    SYD  5-1 146.32 20
    MELB 4-2 123.67 16
    GWS  4-2 101.10 16
    ADEL 3-3 122.77 12
    PORT 3-3 117.05 12
    ESS  3-3 115.04 12
    COLL 3-3 110.08 12
    NORTH3-3  99.31 12
    GEEL 3-3  98.55 12
    HAW  3-3  92.75 12
    CARL 3-3  92.34 12
    GOLD 3-3  87.19 12
    STK  3-3  83.76 12
    WCE  3-3  82.16 12
    FRE  3-3  81.90 12
    RICH 2-4 107.01  8
    WB   2-4  92.13  8
    BRIS 1-5  71.51  4
    "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

  11. #83
    Aut vincere aut mori Thunder Shaker's Avatar
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    I've written a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season. It's basically a ladder predictor with random results weighted on each team's form.

    The simulation has the Swans making the finals about half the time. We are still a chance to make the top four.

    It also suggests an answer to the number of wins needed to make the finals in 8th. 12 wins is average, but 11 wins is possible if other results are right.

    Here are the Swans' results from 20 consecutive simulated seasons:

    07. Sydney Swans 11 1 10 2059 1990 103.467 46
    07. Sydney Swans 12 0 10 2109 1966 107.274 48
    10. Sydney Swans 11 0 11 2049 1891 108.355 44
    10. Sydney Swans 11 0 11 2069 1934 106.980 44
    09. Sydney Swans 11 0 11 2013 1918 104.953 44
    09. Sydney Swans 11 0 11 1980 1922 103.018 44
    08. Sydney Swans 11 1 10 1953 1916 101.931 46
    07. Sydney Swans 11 1 10 2089 1947 107.293 46
    06. Sydney Swans 12 0 10 2004 1848 108.442 48
    10. Sydney Swans 10 0 12 1956 1890 103.492 40
    06. Sydney Swans 12 0 10 2036 1888 107.839 48
    06. Sydney Swans 12 1 9 1994 1846 108.017 50
    06. Sydney Swans 13 0 9 2110 1912 110.356 52
    15. Sydney Swans 8 0 14 1914 1936 98.864 32
    10. Sydney Swans 11 0 11 2030 1910 106.283 44
    08. Sydney Swans 11 0 11 1994 1862 107.089 44
    07. Sydney Swans 12 0 10 1999 1823 109.654 48
    14. Sydney Swans 8 0 14 1983 1961 101.122 32
    13. Sydney Swans 9 0 13 1967 1968 99.949 36
    14. Sydney Swans 8 0 14 1966 1938 101.445 32
    "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

  12. #84
    We are only a game or of the 8. Another massive game against essendon (8th) this week.

    - - - Updated - - -

    If we had beaten the dawks we'd be 8th tonight!

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