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Thread: Finals

  1. #85
    Aut vincere aut mori Thunder Shaker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by barry View Post
    If we had beaten the dawks we'd be 8th tonight!
    Or the Filth ... we lost to them by one point in round 3.

    If we beat the Scum next week, we go ahead of them on the ladder.

    With our superior percentage, the five teams above us on the ladder look ... tasty. Their spots on the ladder are there for the taking.
    "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

  2. #86
    Quote Originally Posted by Thunder Shaker View Post
    Or the Filth ... we lost to them by one point in round 3.

    If we beat the Scum next week, we go ahead of them on the ladder.
    I prefer the term "druggies", which should be echoed from the stands until the last drug user plays his last game.

    Especially for king pin Jobe "escobar" Watson.

  3. #87
    Aut vincere aut mori Thunder Shaker's Avatar
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    It's fun running simulations ...

    100,000 simulated seasons gives interesting results. Here are the teams ranked by the percentage chance the simulation gave for each team to make the finals. It gives a plausible final ladder.

    Code:
    ADELAIDE        	99.821%
    GWS GIANTS      	98.872%
    GEELONG         	94.794%
    PORT ADELAIDE   	94.144%
    RICHMOND        	90.300%
    MELBOURNE       	89.014%
    ESSENDON        	63.975%
    SYDNEY SWANS     	50.426%
    Western Bulldogs 	45.435%
    West Coast Eagles 	31.957%
    Collingwood     	13.696%
    St Kilda        	12.328%
    North Melbourne 	 4.789%
    Gold Coast      	 4.421%
    Fremantle       	 3.807%
    Carlton         	 2.077%
    Hawthorn        	 0.144%
    Brisbane Lions  	 0.000%
    According to the simulation, the only team with no real chance of making the finals is Brisbane. All other teams have some chance, even Hawthorn. Sydney ends up in eighth.

    The simulation isn't perfect, of course, far from it. It gives little consideration to the Giants' lengthy injury list and has other flaws as well. Still, it is much better than running the ladder simulator manually on the AFL website.
    "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

  4. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thunder Shaker View Post
    It's fun running simulations ...

    100,000 simulated seasons gives interesting results. Here are the teams ranked by the percentage chance the simulation gave for each team to make the finals. It gives a plausible final ladder.

    Code:
    ADELAIDE        	99.821%
    GWS GIANTS      	98.872%
    GEELONG         	94.794%
    PORT ADELAIDE   	94.144%
    RICHMOND        	90.300%
    MELBOURNE       	89.014%
    ESSENDON        	63.975%
    SYDNEY SWANS     	50.426%
    Western Bulldogs 	45.435%
    West Coast Eagles 	31.957%
    Collingwood     	13.696%
    St Kilda        	12.328%
    North Melbourne 	 4.789%
    Gold Coast      	 4.421%
    Fremantle       	 3.807%
    Carlton         	 2.077%
    Hawthorn        	 0.144%
    Brisbane Lions  	 0.000%
    According to the simulation, the only team with no real chance of making the finals is Brisbane. All other teams have some chance, even Hawthorn. Sydney ends up in eighth.

    The simulation isn't perfect, of course, far from it. It gives little consideration to the Giants' lengthy injury list and has other flaws as well. Still, it is much better than running the ladder simulator manually on the AFL website.
    So Week 1 of the finals would see us taking on Richmond at the MCG. Recent history would suggest we could win that one.
    It's very hard to live in a studio apartment in San Jose with a man who's learning to play violin. That's what she told the police when she handed them the empty revolver.
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  5. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by snajik View Post
    So Week 1 of the finals would see us taking on Richmond at the MCG. Recent history would suggest we could win that one.
    Don't think this is a simulated ladder? Just the probability of making the 8.

  6. #90
    Veterans List dejavoodoo44's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by snajik View Post
    So Week 1 of the finals would see us taking on Richmond at the MCG. Recent history would suggest we could win that one.
    And with that finals line up, if the Giants lose to Geelong, I'd assume that we would then play them at the SCG.

  7. #91
    Quote Originally Posted by barry View Post
    We are only a game or of the 8. Another massive game against essendon (8th) this week.

    - - - Updated - - -

    If we had beaten the dawks we'd be 8th tonight!
    Every now and then, barry, you write something that makes me think beneath this crusty exterior beats the heart of a Swans fan. It's good to see!

    - - - Updated - - -

    No way will the Giants be forced to host us at the SCG. That just wouldn't be right. Surely it would be at ANZ? Is ANZ unavailable for some reason?

  8. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by bloodspirit View Post
    Every now and then, barry, you write something that makes me think beneath this crusty exterior beats the heart of a Swans fan. It's good to see!

    - - - Updated - - -

    No way will the Giants be forced to host us at the SCG. That just wouldn't be right. Surely it would be at ANZ? Is ANZ unavailable for some reason?
    I believe that anz contract with the afl has ceased. Additionally there was going to be work done there which rendered it a permanent rectangular field although I don think that has been done.

  9. #93
    ANZ hasnt been rectangularised yet so in theory could host a final but I suspect spotless would still be the venue.

  10. #94
    Quote Originally Posted by bloodspirit View Post
    Every now and then, barry, you write something that makes me think beneath this crusty exterior beats the heart of a Swans fan. It's good to see!
    Well i have been on RWO since 2003 posting over 2 post per day during footy season.

  11. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by barry View Post
    ANZ hasnt been rectangularised yet so in theory could host a final but I suspect spotless would still be the venue.
    I suspect you're right Barry

  12. #96
    Veterans List dejavoodoo44's Avatar
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    Oh, and what was the reason that the AFL gave for shifting our home final to ANZ? Was it that the SCG wouldn't be able to hold the bumper crowd? Surely that would apply to Spotless, given that it's half the size of the SCG?

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