So where do the naysayers/non-believers sit now?
Still in a precarious position, but not far away from the 8.
The next 5 games will tell the story. Win 4 and surely everyone will be back on board?
So where do the naysayers/non-believers sit now?
Still in a precarious position, but not far away from the 8.
The next 5 games will tell the story. Win 4 and surely everyone will be back on board?
The difference between insanity and genius is measured only in success.
We won't lose another game and AJ will win the Norm Smith.....
Now here's the thing...glass half full/empty.
If you just look a the last two games and the ladder you can easily be seduced into thinking glass half full.
If you look further and think about the draw and the task ahead...we'll half empty.
Consider:
13 games remaining, win 10 then with reasonable percentage we should be ok.
Well let's examine the fixture what games could we lose,
- Richmond at MCG, haven't won there in some time, last match still haunts me.
- Melbourne at MCG, have had real problems beating them at their home, look to be far stronger team than in the past as well.
- GWS at Spotless, can't remember the last time we actually beat them anywhere except last year at SCG.
- Geelong at Kardinia Park, based on their efforts against Western Bulldogs, that looks tough, but we did win there last year and we play well there.
- Adelaide, at Adelaide Oval, hmmm... Betts and Walker are scary on their home deck.
Of the Home games: no certainties against Bulldogs, Essendon (on current form) or Dockers. Not to mention this week.
Do I think we can do it?
I do. Our best is as good as it gets. It's just that so much depends on injuries to key players as we've already observed this year.
FWIW, the bookies rate us less than a 50/50 chance to make the finals ($2.25). However, I think 50/50 is just about right. If we can stay fit and keep close to the current side on the park, I'd back us to win 10 of the next 13 games and finish 13-9. Even a 12-10 finish with decent percentage might be good enough.
In the last five years (the five seasons of an 18-team competition), the average number of wins for the 8th-placed team was 12.6 with 9th averaging 11.6. The minimum number of wins to make the finals was 12 so 12 wins could be good enough, but in 2012 the 8th-placed side had 14 wins.
I think 13 wins may be required to make the finals this year. This year is shaping as being similar to the 2012 season, with the top sides being fairly even. This means the top sides are giving up wins to lower sides and this inflates the number of wins for sides in the middle of the ladder. In 2012, only seven wins separated the top side (17-5) from 13th (10-12). After round 9 this year, only four wins separates top from 17th.
The good news is most of our remaining games are winnable. We do not play a top four side again until round 17 (GWS) and the highest-ranked sides we play in that time are Richmond (7th) and Western Bulldogs (8th). By round 17, we could theoretically already have 11 wins (though about 9 wins would be about par). If we have 9 wins by round 17, we would need to win three or four of GWS (A), St Kilda (H), Hawthorn (A), Geelong (A), Fremantle (H), Adelaide (A) and Carlton (H) to make the finals. I think we could be going into round 23 with our finals prospects in our own hands - beat Carlton, we're in.
"Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final
I reckon the bookies have it about right. Really depends on us maintaining our form and what injuries we suffer. If we win the next two I reckon odds will tighten to just below $2. The Bulldogs is a big one although I really shouldn't be looking past the Hawks.
I have little doubt we will make the finals, that 3rd quarter on Saturday was awesome. Richardson said that st Kilda butchered the ball . Yes they did because the way we intimidated them with the running and tackling. Their confidence was shot. Disappointed if it's not a 10 goal plus win on Friday night. Then the$2 odds will disappear.
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Book your flights its a lock
This is the most unpredictable season I can ever remember, so you never know.
However, unlike the Bulldogs in 2016, who only once left Melbourne in the Finals, a 7th finish for us in 2017 would mean constant successful interstate travel to win the flag, ( except a semi final or preliminary final against the Giants). Very unlikely.
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