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Thread: Finals

  1. #145
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    I see the AFL/umpires push to get the Dogs safely into the finals is officially on. 26 to 14 free kick count in favour of the Dogs over Norf on the weekend. It was 16 to 4 at half time!

  2. #146
    Won't matter how much theumps try to help, the Dogs won't win the Granny this year.
    They are all over the place.

  3. #147
    Aut vincere aut mori Thunder Shaker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hotpotato View Post
    Won't matter how much theumps try to help, the Dogs won't win the Granny this year.
    They are all over the place.
    AFL Website agrees with you:

    The Run Home

    9.Western Bulldogs

    28 points (seven wins, six losses) 97.0 per cent
    Eight-point game coming up at home to the Eagles and what is emerging is that the Dogs are one of the flakier teams in the competition. They play their best footy at Etihad Stadium, but after the West Coast game they play just three more there including an 'away' game to erstwhile MCG club Hawthorn to finish the season. That might come in handy in case they need to win to get in.

    The run home
    Rd 15: West Coast (Etihad Stadium)
    Rd 16: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
    Rd 17: Carlton (MCG)
    Rd 18: Gold Coast (Cazalys Stadium)
    Rd 19: Essendon (Etihad Stadium)
    Rd 20: Brisbane Lions (Gabba)
    Rd 21: GWS (Etihad Stadium)
    Rd 22: Port Adelaide (Eureka Stadium)
    Rd 23: Hawthorn (Etihad Stadium)
    Meanwhile, they highlight our tough games to come:
    10. Sydney

    24 points (six wins, seven losses) 105.2 per cent
    The Swans are alive, thanks in part to two most recent opponents (Richmond and Essendon) who couldn't close things out. The Swans need to win six of their last nine to make the finals and it starts Friday night at the MCG with their biggest clash against Melbourne since the 1987 first semi-final. They still have to visit Spotless Stadium, Simonds Stadium and Adelaide Oval, so don't go penciling them into the finals just yet.

    The run home
    Rd 15: Melbourne (MCG)
    Rd 16: Gold Coast (SCG)
    Rd 17: GWS (Spotless Stadium)
    Rd 18: St Kilda (SCG)
    Rd 19: Hawthorn (MCG)
    Rd 20: Geelong (Simonds Stadium)
    Rd 21: Fremantle (SCG)
    Rd 22: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
    Rd 23: Carlton (SCG)
    "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

  4. #148
    Carpe Noctem CureTheSane's Avatar
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    Well on our way now.
    Some supporters found it a bit to easy to give the season up and start looking to next year.
    At 6 from 7 we are probably the form side at the moment.
    The difference between insanity and genius is measured only in success.

  5. #149
    Meanwhile, FoxFooty is coming out with these bizzarro projections: The Run Home: Every AFL�s club remaining fixture analysed after Round 14, predicted ladder, finals series | Fox Sports. Very rose coloured glasses in the case of the Swans. Despite rating our fixture the 5th most difficult and saying that teams in our position only have a 32.3% of making top 8, they are tipping us to only drop one more match for the season and finish 14-8 (along with five (5!) other teams) and finish 5th on percentage. Was it only last week they projected us optimistically finishing I think was it 8th? Yet, on the back of us scraping in over Essendon now we are up to 5th. Enjoy these forecasts with your magic mushrooms. If we beat the Dees let's see what they say next week.

  6. #150
    Quote Originally Posted by CureTheSane View Post
    Well on our way now.
    Some supporters found it a bit to easy to give the season up and start looking to next year.
    At 6 from 7 we are probably the form side at the moment.
    We are #1 form side of last 7 games. Melbourne are #2

  7. #151
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    Quote Originally Posted by bloodspirit View Post
    Meanwhile, FoxFooty is coming out with these bizzarro projections: The Run Home: Every AFL�s club remaining fixture analysed after Round 14, predicted ladder, finals series | Fox Sports. Very rose coloured glasses in the case of the Swans. Despite rating our fixture the 5th most difficult and saying that teams in our position only have a 32.3% of making top 8, they are tipping us to only drop one more match for the season and finish 14-8 (along with five (5!) other teams) and finish 5th on percentage. Was it only last week they projected us optimistically finishing I think was it 8th? Yet, on the back of us scraping in over Essendon now we are up to 5th. Enjoy these forecasts with your magic mushrooms. If we beat the Dees let's see what they say next week.
    GWS to win every game? Not with their injury list.

    I also think out form is a bit overstated as well. We've won 6 out of 7 but the highest-ranked team we've played is Richmond. We have Adelaide, Geelong, GWS and Melbourne (all away) to come, and that's not likely to produce three wins. And our only loss to GWS? Again, not with their injury list. If we were to lose only one game, GWS is not the team most likely to beat us.
    "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

  8. #152
    Aut vincere aut mori Thunder Shaker's Avatar
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    I've rolled out the Monte Carlo simulation again, to produce projected results that IMO are a little more plausible than Fox Footy.

    We end up eighth.

    Rest of the season:
    Code:
    Adelaide          9-0
    Brisbane Lions    0-9
    Carlton Blues     2-7
    Collingwood       4-5
    Essendon          8-1
    Fremantle         0-9
    Geelong           5-4
    Gold Coast Suns   2-7
    GWS Giants        7-2
    Hawthorn          1-8
    Melbourne         7-2
    North Melbourne   5-4
    Port Adelaide     8-1
    Richmond          6-3
    St Kilda          1-8
    Sydney Swans      7-2 (losses to Melbourne and Adelaide)
    Western Bulldogs  4-5
    West Coast Eagles 5-4
    Ladder:
    Code:
    ADELAIDE CROWS 	  18  4
    GWS GIANTS        17  5
    PORT ADELAIDE     16  6
    MELBOURNE         15  7
    GEELONG           14  8
    RICHMOND          14  8
    ESSENDON          14  8
    SYDNEY SWANS      13  9
    West Coast Eagles 12 10
    Western Bulldogs  11 11
    Collingwood       9  13
    North Melbourne   9  13
    St Kilda Saints   8  14
    Gold Coast Suns   7  15
    Carlton Blues     7  15
    Fremantle Dockers 6  16
    Hawthorn          6  16
    Brisbane Lions 	  2  20
    "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

  9. #153
    Quote Originally Posted by Thunder Shaker View Post
    I've rolled out the Monte Carlo simulation again, to produce projected results that IMO are a little more plausible than Fox Footy.

    We end up eighth.

    Rest of the season:
    Code:
    Adelaide          9-0
    Brisbane Lions    0-9
    Carlton Blues     2-7
    Collingwood       4-5
    Essendon          8-1
    Fremantle         0-9
    Geelong           5-4
    Gold Coast Suns   2-7
    GWS Giants        7-2
    Hawthorn          1-8
    Melbourne         7-2
    North Melbourne   5-4
    Port Adelaide     8-1
    Richmond          6-3
    St Kilda          1-8
    Sydney Swans      7-2 (losses to Melbourne and Adelaide)
    Western Bulldogs  4-5
    West Coast Eagles 5-4
    Ladder:
    Code:
    ADELAIDE CROWS 	  18  4
    GWS GIANTS        17  5
    PORT ADELAIDE     16  6
    MELBOURNE         15  7
    GEELONG           14  8
    RICHMOND          14  8
    ESSENDON          14  8
    SYDNEY SWANS      13  9
    West Coast Eagles 12 10
    Western Bulldogs  11 11
    Collingwood       9  13
    North Melbourne   9  13
    St Kilda Saints   8  14
    Gold Coast Suns   7  15
    Carlton Blues     7  15
    Fremantle Dockers 6  16
    Hawthorn          6  16
    Brisbane Lions 	  2  20
    With the start to the season, injuries and whatnot I'd be happy with 8th

  10. #154
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thunder Shaker View Post
    I've rolled out the Monte Carlo simulation again, to produce projected results that IMO are a little more plausible than Fox Footy.

    We end up eighth.

    Rest of the season:
    Code:
    Adelaide          9-0
    Brisbane Lions    0-9
    Carlton Blues     2-7
    Collingwood       4-5
    Essendon          8-1
    Fremantle         0-9
    Geelong           5-4
    Gold Coast Suns   2-7
    GWS Giants        7-2
    Hawthorn          1-8
    Melbourne         7-2
    North Melbourne   5-4
    Port Adelaide     8-1
    Richmond          6-3
    St Kilda          1-8
    Sydney Swans      7-2 (losses to Melbourne and Adelaide)
    Western Bulldogs  4-5
    West Coast Eagles 5-4
    Ladder:
    Code:
    ADELAIDE CROWS       18  4
    GWS GIANTS        17  5
    PORT ADELAIDE     16  6
    MELBOURNE         15  7
    GEELONG           14  8
    RICHMOND          14  8
    ESSENDON          14  8
    SYDNEY SWANS      13  9
    West Coast Eagles 12 10
    Western Bulldogs  11 11
    Collingwood       9  13
    North Melbourne   9  13
    St Kilda Saints   8  14
    Gold Coast Suns   7  15
    Carlton Blues     7  15
    Fremantle Dockers 6  16
    Hawthorn          6  16
    Brisbane Lions       2  20
    With their outs Melbourne on Friday might be 50:50.

  11. #155
    Quote Originally Posted by Thunder Shaker View Post
    I've rolled out the Monte Carlo simulation again, to produce projected results that IMO are a little more plausible than Fox Footy.

    We end up eighth.

    Rest of the season:
    Code:
    Adelaide          9-0
    Brisbane Lions    0-9
    Carlton Blues     2-7
    Collingwood       4-5
    Essendon          8-1
    Fremantle         0-9
    Geelong           5-4
    Gold Coast Suns   2-7
    GWS Giants        7-2
    Hawthorn          1-8
    Melbourne         7-2
    North Melbourne   5-4
    Port Adelaide     8-1
    Richmond          6-3
    St Kilda          1-8
    Sydney Swans      7-2 (losses to Melbourne and Adelaide)
    Western Bulldogs  4-5
    West Coast Eagles 5-4
    Ladder:
    Code:
    ADELAIDE CROWS 	  18  4
    GWS GIANTS        17  5
    PORT ADELAIDE     16  6
    MELBOURNE         15  7
    GEELONG           14  8
    RICHMOND          14  8
    ESSENDON          14  8
    SYDNEY SWANS      13  9
    West Coast Eagles 12 10
    Western Bulldogs  11 11
    Collingwood       9  13
    North Melbourne   9  13
    St Kilda Saints   8  14
    Gold Coast Suns   7  15
    Carlton Blues     7  15
    Fremantle Dockers 6  16
    Hawthorn          6  16
    Brisbane Lions 	  2  20
    Nice work Thunder Shaker. I agree your results are a little more plausible - but that's not saying much. There are still a lot of eyebrow raising parts to your results. Anyway, if we could lock those in now, I'd happily take it. I daresay the AFL would be happy too. Only sorry it means we wouldn't get a home final at all but that's not likely anyway. Best we'll get is if we play GWS at their home.

  12. #156
    Aut vincere aut mori Thunder Shaker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Go Swannies View Post
    With their outs Melbourne on Friday might be 50:50.
    I agree. The simulation was giving Melbourne only a 55% chance or so, due entirely I think to their home ground advantage.

    Quote Originally Posted by bloodspirit View Post
    Nice work Thunder Shaker. I agree your results are a little more plausible - but that's not saying much. There are still a lot of eyebrow raising parts to your results. Anyway, if we could lock those in now, I'd happily take it. I daresay the AFL would be happy too. Only sorry it means we wouldn't get a home final at all but that's not likely anyway. Best we'll get is if we play GWS at their home.
    Yes, there were a few interesting results. Fremantle going 0-9 is mostly due to their poor percentage. Essendon going 8-1 is entirely due to their fixture in which they only play one more current top-8 side for the rest of the season (Adelaide).

    These are also the aggregates of 10,000 season simulations, and individual simulations can have quite different results (for example, we could end up as high as 3rd by going 9-0 or as low as 15th). The simulations still give non-zero chances for Hawthorn (16th) or North Melbourne (17th) to make the finals. We're running at about 55%.

    As for home finals, that's not out of the question. If we end up going 8-1 we could finish sixth, and 9-0 gives us a shot at fourth. I consider these unlikely. I would take eighth after starting 0-6. That would be entirely fitting for such a crazy season.
    "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

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