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Thread: Future list and depth analysis

  1. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ludwig View Post
    I agree with the above post from liz. That aside, I think we have quite a good number of promising prospects at the club.

    Harry Marsh and Laidler are both very capable senior players. Laidler may eventually get squeezed out to open a draft spot, but I think Marsh will stay, although will continue to struggle to hold down a regular spot. I guess that's what a depth player is.

    From previous year players, I rate Colin O'Riordan as a near certainty to make it in the AFL. Murray is developing well and if he can continue at this rate could be in the mix for a senior call in the next couple of years. Rose has definitely got some talent, but hasn't shown the consistency required at AFL level, especially his defensive work. But he's got another year on his contract, so maybe he can fix that part of his game.

    It's hard to say what will be with Talia. I think he's played solidly enough, but with the emergence of Melican and the return of AJ, it's hard to know if he will remain on our list. I had him pegged to take over for Reg, and still think he could be a good choice in that regard, but there's a lot of competition in KPDs now. I suppose he would be a good depth player if he remains on the list.

    I like the entire crop of drafted players from last year and all are still in with a chance to stay on for another season. Darcy Cameron looks very promising as a forward/ruck. He's like a Callum Sinclair, except he's a much better mark and kick for goal and is also a better ruckman.

    At this early stage, I would rate Sam Fisher the best of the rookie prospects and think he will become an AFL player.

    Fox has already played a couple of games and has looked okay. Now injured and seems out for the season.

    Shaun Edwards looks a good pick up and adds some depth if nothing else. He's been close to a senior call up several times this year.

    Ben Ronke had a late start and is another one who has shown very good early signs. It'd put him just behind Fisher in ranking their prospects.

    Toby Pink has probably just done enough to hang on for another year. He's performed well at times, but has lots of things to work on. He would probably be delisted, except it's worth giving more time to KPPs, as they are hard to come by. A versatile player who can play forward, back and in the ruck.
    A agree with most of what you say Ludwig, but I would rank the Rookies with Murray at the top in terms of potential; beautiful kick, genuine pace and a largish mid, perfect winger or attacking hbf.

    Toby Pink I also rank very highly, very young, relatively quick for a tall, plenty of footy smarts and good skills.I would put him on a similar trajectory to Melican but with potential as a forward.

    O'Riordon I like, and he has developed good skills, but I wonder whether he has the pace to make it at senior level to avoid being caught on some of his attacking runs.

    Fisher has potential, is young and a ball magnet, but I hope he can improve his kicking, which can be very inconsistent.

    Shaun Edwards is a depth player who still may develop some improvement - line ball.

    Fox proved a pretty good pick-up and a lot of confidence was shown by the coaches in putting in him in the seniors early on. A genuine inside mid with good acceleration and ability to read the play, probably a keeper.

    Ronke seems a really smart and skilled young player but it is hard to judge where he is physically. After his injury struck start to the season, if he can be bigger and stronger and fitter he could make it.

    However, in terms of needs, as Rookies we have 3 x HBF/Wingers in Edwards,O'Riordon,Murray; 3 x Midfielders in Fox, Fisher, Ronke; and only one KPP in Pink and NO ruckmen. So I think there will need to be some hard decisions made re the HBFs and I think Murray is ahead of Edwards & O'Riordon due to he potential. We need a ruck rookie and one more KPP in my opinion. As far as midfielders go Fox, Fisher and Ronke all probably deserve another go the coaches assessment of their potential, but that may depend on the other available talent and .

    With regard to the senior list, Talia, BJ and Leonardis are certainties to be delisted (Talia has no chance with AJ, Aliir, Melican and Maibaum all in contention); with McVeigh a possibility to retire. It is hard to see others being delisted given current contract status but there may be trade potential, as you suggest, for Laidler and Marsh. Melican will also need to be upgraded to the senior list, so unless there is a trade or two, the room on the senior list is extremely limited, with only 2 or 3 draft spots available.So to get a reasonable turnover on the list the Rookie list will be closely examined with the potential available talent an important determining factor.

    Overall, the senior list seems to be pretty healthy and capable, with one or two obvious exceptions who shall not be named. Overall there seems to be good potential for list improvement without too much trauma. A position a lot of clubs would envy.
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  2. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Magoo View Post
    I think the unfairness can be taken out if the rule was that ANY club that signs a player for say five years or longer is stuck with the same situation. The unfair bit is that it is levied on one situation because of who it was.
    The AFL made the rule to overcome a loop hole in their system. I think it could be challenged in court. The salary cap isn't exactly on strong legal footings at the best of times.

    If buddy did retire early, could we bundle say the remaining 3 million in one year, or conversely spread it out over 10 years.?

  3. #15
    Would be interesting when the next long term deal comes along - Josh Kelly to Norths on one million a year for seven is really no different. I agree that the current situation would seem easily challenged but the reality is that the clubs know that to do so would mean the whole system might come crashing down like a pack of cards and then we end up like soccer overseas where the same rich clubs are the only ones year after year in the running for a title.

  4. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Magoo View Post
    Would be interesting when the next long term deal comes along - Josh Kelly to Norths on one million a year for seven is really no different. I agree that the current situation would seem easily challenged but the reality is that the clubs know that to do so would mean the whole system might come crashing down like a pack of cards and then we end up like soccer overseas where the same rich clubs are the only ones year after year in the running for a title.
    It would be different because it wouldn't come under free agency - or, more specifically, restricted free agency.

    I don't believe that there is a "Buddy rule" for Sydney. The rule applies to any player recruited as a restricted free agent and the requirement that the whole contract falls under the salary cap is quite reasonable. Otherwise restricted free agency would be open to all sorts of abuse.

    However, the restriction is (as I understand it) more draconian than has been discussed on RWO. Not only does the whole contract have to be counted under the salary cap, the pattern can't be shifted between years. So say both Reid and Jones left this year and the Swans couldn't (or chose not to) recruit other players to take up the salary cap that would be free as a result. They are not allowed to shift salary due to Buddy in, say, his final year forward to 2018 to reduce the risk of them bearing a large chunk while he is no longer able to play. That bit I am not 100% sure whether it applies to all RFA players, or if that was something specifically applied to the Buddy situation. You'd like to think the former, but who knows with the AFL.

    More generally, once any player is contracted by any club, they have a commitment that needs to be counted under the salary cap unless that player is traded away and the new club agrees to take on the contract. There may be some modification to this is a contracted player refuses to play out his contract, or if he is incapable of doing so for a reason other than a football-related injury. But a player who retires due to a football injury still gets his full contract value, and it still counts in the cap.

    Which year it counts under can be a bit complicated. The rules may have changed but there was a time when, if a player retired due to injury, the entire remaining contract value counted in the cap when he retired. Clearly that can be problematic for a club that is close to its limit, especially where the retirement wasn't foreseen at the start of the year. But it explains why Brisbane retained Voss on their list for a season after he had retired in practice, and why the same happened to the Swans with Fosdike. Both clubs had to play a man short the following year because Voss and Fosdike were still included on their lists. Had they cut them from their lists at the end of the season they stopped playing, the would have had salary cap issues for those years.

  5. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by liz View Post
    It's almost impossible for a club to maintain significant, experienced depth. Players who are good enough to be in the best 22 of a team but who can't break in will generally look elsewhere for an opportunity (see Nankervis, Membrey for two recent examples). Most clubs will have one or two younger players who can make some kind of contribution at senior level in their first year while they develop physically, but these will generally progress into the "best 22" by their second or third year.
    My concern is that Aliir may consider joining this group at season's end. I really don't get this aversion to playing him; far too good a player to be languishing in the twos. Yet here we are with 4 games remaining of the regular season and there he remains. I don't really buy this 'he's been overtaken by Melican' line either. He's has enough versatility and x-factor to be played elsewhere than a key position defender. Would be a sad day if he turns up in another strip due to limited opportunities.
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  6. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by snajik View Post
    My concern is that Aliir may consider joining this group at season's end. I really don't get this aversion to playing him; far too good a player to be languishing in the twos. Yet here we are with 4 games remaining of the regular season and there he remains. I don't really buy this 'he's been overtaken by Melican' line either. He's has enough versatility and x-factor to be played elsewhere than a key position defender. Would be a sad day if he turns up in another strip due to limited opportunities.
    He can't at the end of 2017 as he is still under contract. Things may change if he continues to struggle to break into the senior team next year (and who could blame him).

    In our favour are:

    - he's not from Melbourne, and probably doesn't have strong roots in Perth either. Not sure if most of his family is still up in Queensland. It does mean that the "go home factor" is probably neglible. I suspect that also played a part in the Membrey and Nankervis decisions. (Yes, I know Nankervis is from Tasmania, not Melbourne, but he did express a keenness to move "closer to home".)
    - Aliir was a Swans supporter as a kid. Not sure how much of a difference this would (or should) make if he's not getting a game and other clubs are knocking on the door but it might be a minor factor if he just thinks he needs to wait until Grundy retires.

  7. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by liz View Post
    He can't at the end of 2017 as he is still under contract. Things may change if he continues to struggle to break into the senior team next year (and who could blame him).

    In our favour are:

    - he's not from Melbourne, and probably doesn't have strong roots in Perth either. Not sure if most of his family is still up in Queensland. It does mean that the "go home factor" is probably neglible. I suspect that also played a part in the Membrey and Nankervis decisions. (Yes, I know Nankervis is from Tasmania, not Melbourne, but he did express a keenness to move "closer to home".)
    - Aliir was a Swans supporter as a kid. Not sure how much of a difference this would (or should) make if he's not getting a game and other clubs are knocking on the door but it might be a minor factor if he just thinks he needs to wait until Grundy retires.
    I think his family still live in Perth. Well they did the last time I spoke with someone from east freo but it was a while ago. He would be ideal for freo but I think they'd prefer to draft Naughton.

  8. #20
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    The coaches would have said to Aliir these are the areas you need to improve to play seniors. He would have replied yes I'll go away and work on it. I find it hard to believe he'd sook it and skulk off somewhere else. I think that young man likes a challenge and I believe he'll get there sooner rather than later.

  9. #21
    Veterans List Ludwig's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by aardvark View Post
    The coaches would have said to Aliir these are the areas you need to improve to play seniors. He would have replied yes I'll go away and work on it. I find it hard to believe he'd sook it and skulk off somewhere else. I think that young man likes a challenge and I believe he'll get there sooner rather than later.
    He doesn't have to work on his game. He's already got his game. We saw how he plays in the AFL last year. Of course, every player hopefully improves with time and experience, and you would think that will hold for Aliir as well. The problem is not with Aliir, it's with Longmire. It's Longmire that needs a stint in the 2s to improve his weak points. Rhyce Shaw can take over as the head coach. He seems to know what he's doing and all the players love him.

  10. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by Ludwig View Post
    He doesn't have to work on his game. He's already got his game. We saw how he plays in the AFL last year. Of course, every player hopefully improves with time and experience, and you would think that will hold for Aliir as well. The problem is not with Aliir, it's with Longmire. It's Longmire that needs a stint in the 2s to improve his weak points. Rhyce Shaw can take over as the head coach. He seems to know what he's doing and all the players love him.
    There has been a major change since last year: Lewis Melican. AA has to either outperform the Pelican or find another role.

  11. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Ludwig View Post
    He doesn't have to work on his game. He's already got his game. We saw how he plays in the AFL last year. Of course, every player hopefully improves with time and experience, and you would think that will hold for Aliir as well. The problem is not with Aliir, it's with Longmire. It's Longmire that needs a stint in the 2s to improve his weak points. Rhyce Shaw can take over as the head coach. He seems to know what he's doing and all the players love him.
    Don't forget that his form is nowhere near what it was last year. He was given a chance in the seniors at the start of the season and failed. That may be because of a limited pre-season but that's not Horses fault

  12. #24
    Veterans List Ludwig's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by S.S. Bleeder View Post
    Don't forget that his form is nowhere near what it was last year. He was given a chance in the seniors at the start of the season and failed. That may be because of a limited pre-season but that's not Horses fault
    It is Longmire's fault because he played an underdone player, as he did with Kieran Jack. It is Aliir's fault that he missed his opportunity by arriving late for a training session, but he's been back in form for quite some time now, so there's no reason not to play him now. I know that Longmire likes the setup with Mills in the back line, but Aliir can take his place and Mills can move to the midfield. I think it will end up like that anyway, so why wait? Aliir is more suited to handling a bigger forward than Mills and Mills will be a star wherever he plays.

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