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Thread: 2018 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

  1. #1225
    If you accept Cal Twomey’s view that this draft contains a #super7 (of whom Blakey is one) then Saints would be denying themselves a chance at one of the 7 to get Hanners.

  2. #1226
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ludwig View Post
    The Saints don't lose their first round pick, just trade down to the mid teens. Without a swap of first round pick I can't see how a deal gets done.

    I wouldn't do the trade if I were STK, unless I felt certain that Hanners could get back to his best.

    I didn't mention Moore because I think it's a dumb trade. It doesn't mean it won't happen.
    Ludwig, you forgot to mention that St Kilda is the "Party Club" and Hanners might get some attractive offers of a different kind.

  3. #1227
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ludwig View Post
    The Saints don't lose their first round pick, just trade down to the mid teens. Without a swap of first round pick I can't see how a deal gets done.

    I wouldn't do the trade if I were STK, unless I felt certain that Hanners could get back to his best.

    I didn't mention Moore because I think it's a dumb trade. It doesn't mean it won't happen.
    I agree that Moore seems like a dumb trade but so does Hanners, for both us (unless we get a seriously good deal) and for the Saints. Our midfield is clearly the area that needs attention and the one where we don't appear to have short term answers already on our list, unless we factor in Hanners (and others) regaining their form of 2016.


    In defence, we might expect improvement from the natural development of Aliir and Melican (and maybe Maibaum) as KPD prospects who have shown that they play at senior level, and from COR, Ling, Stoddart as pacy options who are unproven but seem to have something to offer.


    Our forward line is still a work-in-progress but Hayward, McCartin, Ronke and Dawson (and Blakey) all have talent and just need physical maturity and experience. Even Papley is one we might expect further improvement from.


    In the midfield, we might be able to eke out one more OK season from Jack but I think it's clear he's no longer capable of contributing at 2010-2016 levels. Parker and JPK are already the main players and can play better than they have this year but we can't reasonably expect them to produce more than 2016-7 levels of performance. And JPK may only have a couple of years left at his excellent level. Hewett might improve (ie he might graduate from tagger to seriously good offensive weapon) but I'm not sure we can assume that will happen. Some improvement can be expected from Heeney, Florent and maybe Mills, if he gets his chance, but we don't have a lot of midfield talent running around in the NEAFL side. We do need an injection of something into the midfield, and we need it immediately if we are a chance to capitalise on Buddy. If that isn't going to come from Hannebery recapturing his 2016 form, where is it going to come from? We can dream of a free agent arriving and fixing up our midfield but the only high quality free agent midfielder seemingly on offer this year is Gaff, and it seems to be assumed he'll either stay in Perth or move to Melbourne. Otherwise, the club needs to try and find another Kennedy, not necessarily in style, but another highly capable midfielder ready to produce now but languishing unappreciated on his club's list. They may not be free agents but could possibly be prised from their current club's list at not too high a cost. Dom Tyson maybe? Dom Sheed? Jarryd Lyon? Ellis-Yolman? All have spent some time at reserves level this year, suggesting they're a bit down the pecking order.

  4. #1228
    I agree Liz re: our midfield woes.

    I taken it as a given that if Hanners goes with our blessing there would have to be a plan to replace him with an experienced player.

    Trouble is we have no idea who that player is.

  5. #1229
    Hanners is part of our midfield woes.

    Moore wants to come to Sydney. That's reason enough to take him. To be honest, I'm having doubts about allir being ready if Grundy doesn't play next year.

    Midfield has henney and mills who can play there more.

  6. #1230
    Quote Originally Posted by barry View Post
    Hanners is part of our midfield woes.

    Moore wants to come to Sydney. That's reason enough to take him. To be honest, I'm having doubts about allir being ready if Grundy doesn't play next year.

    Midfield has henney and mills who can play there more.
    I agree #Hanners18 is our biggest midfield woe. And he may never return to his earlier AA form. The fact he’s on the trade table makes me think that’s likely.

  7. #1231
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    Quote Originally Posted by Markwebbos View Post
    I agree #Hanners18 is our biggest midfield woe. And he may never return to his earlier AA form. The fact he’s on the trade table makes me think that’s likely.
    Its an interesting game of 'signalling' the trade period in the AFL.

    St Kilda need to make a judgment whether they think we have been mishandling Hannerbrey's injuries, and a new approach could see his fitness improve substantially and allow him to recapture better form than what has been on show.

    However, if there is a lack of resistance and a clear willingness to trade from our side, that would surely suggest that we consider its unlikely he will ever be as good as he previously has been. A tricky one to work out which hypothesis is correct and which isn't.

    But if we get a good offer, despite the issues it would create for our midfield as Liz rightly points out, I think we will take our chances and take it.
    "You get the feeling that like Monty Python's Black Knight, the Swans would regard amputation as merely a flesh wound."

  8. #1232
    Quote Originally Posted by liz View Post
    They may not be free agents but could possibly be prised from their current club's list at not too high a cost. Dom Tyson maybe? Dom Sheed? Jarryd Lyon? Ellis-Yolman? All have spent some time at reserves level this year, suggesting they're a bit down the pecking order.
    Wondering if Chad Wingard can be added to that list? David King reckon's Port should look to trade him.

    Dayne Beams is another premium midfielder who is now also rumoured to be looking moving back to Vic along with Shiel & Gaff. Would be nice to know if the club are secretly working behind the scenes to try & entice one of these to us if they're planning to offload Hannebery.

  9. #1233
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    Quote Originally Posted by KSAS View Post
    Wondering if Chad Wingard can be added to that list? David King reckon's Port should look to trade him.

    Dayne Beams is another premium midfielder who is now also rumoured to be looking moving back to Vic along with Shiel & Gaff. Would be nice to know if the club are secretly working behind the scenes to try & entice one of these to us if they're planning to offload Hannebery.
    I think it will be hard to persuade Chad to leave SA, even if Port wanted to trade him. And they would only trade him if they thought they'd get a very good deal. Plus I'm not convinced he's really a midfielder. I know he's played some good football at times in the midfield but his most consistent years were when he was primarily a medium forward.

    I reckon it would be poor form for Beams to leave Brisbane now. They, and Collingwood, accommodated his desire to be in Queensland for personal reasons. Brisbane paid a pretty hefty trade price for him. Brisbane are starting to come good after many years in the wilderness but they are still a very young side and need experienced players like Beams to help the likes of Raynor, McCluggage and Berry to continue to develop.

  10. #1234
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    Quote Originally Posted by liz View Post
    I think it will be hard to persuade Chad to leave SA, even if Port wanted to trade him. And they would only trade him if they thought they'd get a very good deal. Plus I'm not convinced he's really a midfielder. I know he's played some good football at times in the midfield but his most consistent years were when he was primarily a medium forward.

    I reckon it would be poor form for Beams to leave Brisbane now. They, and Collingwood, accommodated his desire to be in Queensland for personal reasons. Brisbane paid a pretty hefty trade price for him. Brisbane are starting to come good after many years in the wilderness but they are still a very young side and need experienced players like Beams to help the likes of Raynor, McCluggage and Berry to continue to develop.
    A rumour (and its only a rumour) I've seen going around today is Wingard is a target of, you guessed it.... Hawthorn.
    "You get the feeling that like Monty Python's Black Knight, the Swans would regard amputation as merely a flesh wound."

  11. #1235
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nico View Post
    Ludwig, you forgot to mention that St Kilda is the "Party Club" and Hanners might get some attractive offers of a different kind.
    That's good to know. I may become a Saints' supporter next year.

  12. #1236
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    Quote Originally Posted by liz View Post
    I agree that Moore seems like a dumb trade but so does Hanners, for both us (unless we get a seriously good deal) and for the Saints.
    To get Moore we would have to part with our 1st round pick from this year or next. It seems way too much, but surely it will be the least Collingwood would accept. We look solid enough in defence and in the KPP forward position as well, especially when you consider Blakey is coming this year and he can play at either end. There was an unsourced rumour that Moore wanted out and the Swans were the likely 1st choice. That's not much to go on.

    The Hanners trade has many legs and has been sourced, so it has to be taken a possible, if not probable. I don't agree at all that trading Hanners doesn't make sense.

    1. The key part of the trade would be getting pick 4 from the Saints and give them our first pick (say #14), so they do give up a choice top 6 pick, but would get Hanners and still have a 1st rounder where they can probably pick up a good player, albeit not in the class of the top 6. If the Saints feel they need to move up the ladder next year and can't wait to rebuild further, this trade can make sense to them.
    2. The likely top 4 picks will be Walsh, Lukosius, Smith and Rankine, with the Kings twins in the mix. Blakely will not get bid on earlier than 5. So pick 4 is safe for getting a player before a Blakey bid. If Carlton and the Suns don't trade out of their early picks Carlton will likely take Walsh and the Suns will take Lukosius and either Rankine or Smith. We would get the one left over. Some recruiters have compared Rankine to Andrew McCloud. I'd like that. Smith is in the Heeney category of player. So happy with either one.
    3. Losing our 1st round pick in the exchange doesn't change much as we just use our second round picks and perhaps a bit more to get Blakey.
    4. We free up salary cap space to recruit another quality midfielder. I don't think we should read too much into rumours about where certain free agents might be headed. The Swans will certainly be playing their cards close to the chest until after the season. We surely must be in the hunt.


    The Hanners trade looks like a winner to me.

    I don't mean to be discouraging about our chances in the next couple of years, but I feel we are, at best, in with a group of challengers for the flag, not exactly in a wide open premiership window. Richmond will be very strong for at least another couple of years. The Giants, Melbourne and Essendon are all better placed to challenge for the flag than we are. Geelong and Hawthorn continue to get into the 8.

    If a choice between going all out for next year or continue to rebuild on the run, I would continue the rebuild. I commented before that our strongest age demographic is under 25 and won't be reaching their peak for several years. If we have a good year with few injuries and form slumps, we can realistically challenge for a premiership, but the odds are against us. We should get behind our under 25 group and have them peaking together in a few years when we should be one of the flag favourites.

    I want us to win the premiership every year, but we all know that's not possible. List management decisions have to be taken in the cold light of day and not with the emotion of a Swans tragic.

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