2018 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Auntie.Gerald]

Trade Wrap - Kinnear Beatson - sydneyswans.com.au

Sounds like kinnear is willing to trade up prior or live if they think they are close to securing a “certain” player in the draft

and also use next years draft picks if need be to swap with another club

Prior to that he felt happy having 3 late picks in the 30s this draft after using I assume the first so picks on Blakey

[Go Swannies]

Here's my (co-authored) take for the ABC, based on our HPN work - Who won and lost the 2018 AFL Trade Period? - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

It's not a glamorous trade period, but Sydney project well out of it in terms of total future expected value (there are graphs!).

Clarke is a big piece of that. As a 21 year old with 40 games under his belt (even at a relatively low level of value to his team), history suggests he has a lot of footy ahead of him, probably more than Hannebery and Rohan combined (Thurlow barely figures and Newman might do a lot more at Carlton than he would have here).

We have also upgraded our position in the next two drafts by a lot (that Saints 2nd rounder is a nice acquisition), basically expanding the probability we get good value out of it, and because draft position is all abstract probabilities, this is the thing observers tend to underrate.

Thanks R-1 it's nice to see facts rather than (unsettled) gut feeling.

[rickmat]

I agree 100%, Ludwig, Robinson and Marsh are not going to improve but Maibaum and Rose are showing growth in their skills. Maibaum was mainstay in defence with COR all season and I was impressed with Rose''s GF where he put in both ends

[CureTheSane]

I wonder if anyone has considered what will likely eventuate next year and that perhaps the club is considering this future right now when they are trading and drafting.
Next year potentially no
McVeigh
Jack
Smith
Grundy
...then add in another 3 or 4 players who haven't stepped up and it will be quite the transition year...

[CureTheSane]

Oh, and I support Ludwig, both in his rights to belittle ex Swans players and also in raising awareness of breastfeeding.

Here is my image of support....

Attachment 2201

[O'Reilly Boy]

I agree 100%, Ludwig, Robinson and Marsh are not going to improve but Maibaum and Rose are showing growth in their skills. Maibaum was mainstay in defence with COR all season and I was impressed with Rose''s GF where he put in both ends

I agree about Rose and Maibaum. The former has been cast as a small forward, but in the Reserves games I saw he struck me as a useful outside mid who is capable of winning his own ball and has a bit of pace. Fluid runner in congestion, and a useful kick from outside the arc. I realise that there is a bit of a queue in front of him to get into the midfield, but I wouldn't overlook him.

Maibaum has also struck me as a quite big presence across the back line, and as a player who won't die wondering. Throws his size around, and seems to feel the game very intensely. The sort of player I'd like to have my back.

[Steve]

Given we were never going to land a big fish, I guess the glass half full view would be that we threw our hat in for a few half-chances as they became available in Moore, Langdon and Vanbenberg - but were probably expecting to finish up roughly where we did.

Rohan going probably pays for Clarke and Thurlow from a salary cap perspective, and I expect that late in the year we knew we couldn't keep Hanners' with his salary without possibly losing Lloyd and not being able to even try and pursue any of the others we did.

The clubs the media assess as winning or gaining in the trade period are generally those who are risking or given up a lot as well - we've only given up those past their best and a couple of fringe players, so whilst we haven't gained a hell of a lot, it's about as much as we could reasonably expect.

[Mountain Man]

3 ex Swans received premiership medallions in the last 3 years. And a Brownlow.
Not sure that will happen again from this years trading - so a win for me from this year

[longmile]

3 ex Swans received premiership medallions in the last 3 years. And a Brownlow.
Not sure that will happen again from this years trading - so a win for me from this year

Newman will have a premiership medallion around his neck come this time next year. Mark my words.

[Ludwig]

Beatson made a speech that conformed with what we actually did as if it was all pre-planned. We know that's not true, but the outcome is still fine.

I can't see us trading picks before the draft as everything sits precariously right on target so that if Blakey gets bid at #7, which I think will be the earliest, then we give up 26 and 33 and have those 3 late 30s picks. On trade night, if Blakey is still there at pick 12, a matching bid will leave over enough points to be worth a pick 48, which will move even higher as Collingwood and North will have to use their picks in the 40s to match bidsof their own, so we then have some real value to play with, which could involve trading up a bit or trading out a pick in this year's draft for a future pick.

On the matter of Rose, he showed that he has a lot of upside and can play several positions. His positives are really strong, but he's a lot like Aliir and Jones, also players with strong positives, where it's more a matter of trying to keep the negatives to a minimum.

[waswan]

Prefer that we have kept Lloyd Alir etc as opposed to bringing any in that we were chasing
Darcy aside but he wouldnt have been cheap and would have been a big risk

We have a good enough squad just time to put the right players in the midfield full time

Jed Lamb delisted i wonder if he regrets leaving for greener pastures, had a free run at Sydney
Still built like a 12 yr old girl

[rb4x]

To me it looks like we will be delisting one more senior player and one of Fox or Pink from the rookies. I thought Maibaum was tracking well but his stats show that he had a poor NEAFL Grand Final and he may have had his head on the block if we had got either Moore or Langdon. Those misses may have saved him which basically means that it will come down to either Marsh or Robinson. Pink is an interesting case as this year he was basically injured all year and could have been expected to be delisted. The club showed similar faith a couple of years ago with Melican who did nothing in 2016 but showed his potential in 2017 to again have 2018 as basically a wipe out. Possibly they have the same confidence in Pink in which case Fox will be chopped else it will be Pink as we can not retain two third year rookies. Promoting Fox would mean both Marsh and Robinson would need to be cut.