2018 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[707]

Here's a trading scenario to think about when Brisbane beat Carlton next week and go above Gold Coast on the ladder. That will mean GC hold pick 2. They will hold picks 2 & 3 after Tom Lynch exercises his FA status to go to Hawthorn/Collingwood/Richmond.

What will Gold Coast do with picks 2 & 3? Draft a couple more talented kids who will play the go home card in two years?

Or do they trade pick 3 to us for Jake Lloyd which gets them a senior player they are chasing and our first say pick 13/14 ish which will this year still draft a potentially great player?

We could then draft a gun with pick 3 and use later picks to pay for Blakey when he is bid on. Just saying .....

[liz]

Here's a trading scenario to think about when Brisbane beat Carlton next week and go above Gold Coast on the ladder. That will mean GC hold pick 2. They will hold picks 2 & 3 after Tom Lynch exercises his FA status to go to Hawthorn/Collingwood/Richmond.

What will Gold Coast do with picks 2 & 3? Draft a couple more talented kids who will play the go home card in two years?

Or do they trade pick 3 to us for Jake Lloyd which gets them a senior player they are chasing and our first say pick 13/14 ish which will this year still draft a potentially great player?

We could then draft a gun with pick 3 and use later picks to pay for Blakey when he is bid on. Just saying .....

You'd like to think they've learned their lesson after giving up pick two last year for Weller, a handy player but hardly one to build a team around. At least they had the excuse then that he was contracted.

They'd be mad to trade a similar pick to us this year for Lloyd. If they do land up with two top five picks (and lose Lynch), they could draft both the King twins, or one and a gun midfielder. Even getting a late first round pick wouldn't make it any more palatable for the Gold Coast.

I think it's crazy to think they'd do that kind of deal. They'd be more likely to try and send him to the PSD (and hope Carlton weren't interested -which might be a risk, admittedly).

I think a better bet might be to try and take one of their recent draftees off their hands who isn't getting a game. I'm not sure why someone like Will Brodie can't get a spot in their senior team, but if he's still on the outer by season end and is getting antsy, he'd be good to take off their hands. I don't like the idea of picking off the talent from struggling clubs (even if they're pinching one of ours) but if he's not settled at Gold Coast and they're not keen on him, he might be interested in a change of scene. And he's not as big a cost to them as passing up the chance at a King twin.

[Meg]

I can't imagine there are many players who'd want to move to the Gold Coast, even for loads of money. Unless he's given up on playing finals or winning anything.

Or he likes playing Bingo.

[Ludwig]

There was this article last week about Brodie and Jack Scrimshaw being frustrated about their lack of senior games (both are contracted till 2020): AFL trade news 2018: Carlton reportedly showing strong interest in Sun Jack Scrimshaw | Fox Sports

If I were running GC, I'd be more interested in keeping these 2 players than chasing someone like Jake Lloyd.

I agree with Liz, that Will Brodie would be a great trade in exchange for Lloyd if GC were really keen on him. It's hard to figure what GC are up to, they keep making one mistake after another.

I mentioned somewhere else that GC also have WC's 1st rounder as well as their own and the likely next pick after if Lynch leaves. They may also be granted a priority pick and they have 2 second round picks as well. So there are lots of 'assets' that could be on the table if they want to pursue Jake Lloyd. Nic Newman is another that will be looking to move and we already know that Robbo would like out as well.

It usually turns out that after all the chatter that players tend to re-sign with their clubs. Lloyd is a much appreciated player on a perennial finals team. How much attraction could there be in going into the wilderness of Gold Coast or Carlton?

Apparently DeGoey re-signed with Collingwood for 2 years at $1.5 mil., hence foregoing $3.5 million guaranteed to go to NM, a club that looks to be on the rise. That must be a lot more than would be at stake in the Lloyd negotiations.

[Auntie.Gerald]

2018 for me is probably our time to peak unless we get a little bold with clearing the decks ala Hawks, north

Port went for it spending and bringing in a big refresh of players

We are potentially loosing a few more very experienced players and a fair few dollars

Tippett - retired but his cap $ free 2019
Macca - retire
Jack - unsure about his zing to compete
Hannes - young and might attract a pick
Grundy - I think has another season
Lloyd - not sure if we can match the dollars?

Towers?
Newman?
Robinson?
Naismith?
Rose?
Fox?
Marsh?
Foote?

The possibilities, strategy and dollars make for fascinating viewing and I�m intrigued

Mills should move into the midfield
More attacking backs would be awesome
Another outside player?

[mcs]

2018 for me is probably our time to peak unless we get a little bold with clearing the decks ala Hawks, north

Port went for it spending and bringing in a big refresh of players

We are potentially loosing a few more very experienced players and a fair few dollars

Tippett - retired but his cap $ free 2019
Macca - retire
Jack - unsure about his zing to compete
Hannes - young and might attract a pick
Grundy - I think has another season
Lloyd - not sure if we can match the dollars?

Towers?
Newman?
Robinson?
Naismith?
Rose?
Fox?
Marsh?
Foote?

The possibilities, strategy and dollars make for fascinating viewing and I�m intrigued

Mills should move into the midfield
More attacking backs would be awesome
Another outside player?

I don't think 2018 represents a 'peak' at all - even with those players (or at least some of them) moving on. Perhaps it represents the last chance to win the flag for a few of the older guys - notably Mcveigh, Grundy, Jack in particularly. But a peak for the squad as a broader whole - I'm not convinced.

Look at the profile of the rump coming through together that will only get better and better in the coming few years. They always say it takes really to somewhere between 50 and 100 games for players to really know they fit at AFL level and to move to a level close to their absolute best - the following list is impressive imho - even taking into account there are always players that overachieve, some that underachieve, and some that simply prove to be duds.

McCartin - 6 games, 18 years old
Ronke - 9 games, 21 years old
Aliir Aliir - 19 games, 23 years old
Melican - 20 games, 21 years old
Florent - 23 games, 19 years old
Hayward - 31 games, 19 years old
Papley - 52 games, 21 years old
Mills - 55 games, 21 years old
Hewett - 62 games, 22 years old
Jones - 66 games, 23 years old
Heeney - 72 games, 22 years old

That is a damn solid rump that across them are in theory a long way from their peak - while I'd argue Aliir and McCartin are both in places where there is still a lot of work to be done (though we couldn't have ever hoped for what we have seen from McCartin so far), most of the rest of that list are all already accomplished AFL footballers - with the promise of a lot more to come. If we manage to hold onto all of them (or at least the critical ones), then in 3 or 4 years time there is going to be half a team reaching their peak together- and some of those guys will simply be very good, but arguably some will potentially be elite level players. It is a hell of a base to work off imho.

Plus others as well in the relatively young category/relatively inexperienced category that if good enough/still here are part of the next 'peak' per say - these are more iffy of course.
Cunningham - 95 games, 24 years old (has improved quite a bit this year imho)
Lloyd - 106 games, 24 years old (I think he will go but is clearly quality if we can keep him)
Newman - 23 games, 25 years old
Marsh - 23 games, 24 years old
Naismith - 28 games, 25 years old
Fox - 7 games, 25 years old
Robinson - 19 games, 23 years old
Dawson - 1 game, 21 years old

Plus there are those yet to debut that could well play a big role for us that are still developing, or seem to be chomping at the bit (O'Riordan and Cameron) for a chance.

On top of that you have Parker (25 yo), Reid (26) who still are relatively young, and Hanners (if we can fit whatever is ailing him) and Rampe that can play senior figures through that period as well, and maybe Buddy towards the beginning of it.

Perhaps 2018 will represent an immediate peak, and there may be some drop off in 2019/2020, but if we get it right, that could very well be temporary. Keep that recruitment radar on sight as we have recently, and we are going to have a very, very good looking and overall very young squad in a couple of years time. Think of it this way - we are a good chance to be a top 4 team in 2018, despite having on our entire list just 12 players with >100 games experience, and of those 12, one has missed a hell of a lot of the season (Reid) and 3 are arguably genuinally struggling for form/fitness (Jack/Hanners/Rohan). That tells me that while the remaining players are doing plenty of the grunt work, our success is in part because a lot of our younger, quite inexperienced players are shouldering the load. And that is surely a good sign for the future - as so many of those guys will only get better.

Therefore I would argue any moves in 2018 shouldn't be about 'topping up' or throwing the baby out with the bathwater, but where possible adding to that rump coming through in one form or another. We need to be bold, but not stupid.

Stupid recruitment could derail what could be a truly fearsome team in a couple of seasons time, even when the likes of McVeigh, Jack, Grundy, perhaps Smith/Hanners/Kennedy are enjoying their well earned retirements - we are already not too far away imho from having a Premiership quality list (there are of course areas for improvement), and the fact that is made up of so many players with so much improvement in them is a very good sign for the future.

[CureTheSane]

Is it just me, or do Papley and Jones look older than 21 and 23?

[YvonneH]

There seems to be a push (from the media) for the Suns to take J. McVeigh up there, ala Luke Hodge to Brisbane, to add experience to a very young team.
Would Stewie Dew see that as a good idea?
Would McVeigh like to get more coaching experience outside of the Sydney bubble, ala Brett Kirk?
Would do we on RWO think?

[707]

Suns need all the help they can get, I'm worried they could be facing an exodus like the infamous Brisbane "go home five" of four years ago. Lynch almost certainly gone, talk now of Stephen May going as well :-(

I'm not bothered whatever McVeigh decides, think he'll end up on our coaching panel eventually.

[Markwebbos]

Gary Buckenara is surprisingly complimentary about our list

Category: | Herald Sun

Buckenara says: What a marvellous side. The Swans have been so consistent for so long and again they are premiership contenders in season 2018. I think they’ll definitely finish top four and at this stage, I predict it will be a Richmond v Sydney Grand Final. It’s a real credit not only to coach John Longmire but also to the recruiting and development teams because they’ve been able to discover young players while staying near the top of the ladder. I actually think, despite what some others say when they look at it on paper, the Swans have good depth...

My only real concerns for the Swans are the ruck position and the forward line. Naismith is out for the season and while Sinclair has improved out of sight, if he gets injured then that spells trouble. Up forward, they still haven’t quite found that second tall to help Buddy and will be hoping Sam Reid can get a decent run at it in the second half of the season. Having said that, I’ve been really impressed by what young Tom McCartin has produced in his first few games. Sydney have uncovered a little gem in Ben Ronke, who has been a good source of speed, tackling pressure and goals alongside Will Hayward, who I really like, and Ollie Florent who can also go into the midfield.

[Aprilbr]

It’s hard to argue with his analysis. A fit Reid returning should help our structure a lot. Our lone ruckman certainly needs to stay fit!


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[Ludwig]

Maybe Blakey can be a Patrick Cripps type midfielder. That would be nice.

If I had the #1 draft pick this year I would take Izak Rankine over Lukosius unless my club needed a key forward.

Blakey is looking a 5-10 pick, which would be fair value.